Five days later, Swalwell’s campaign was over. Facing accusations of sexual assault and misconduct published in the San Francisco Chronicle and CNN and pressure from top allies despite his denial of the claims, Swalwell suspended his campaign Sunday and announced his resignation from Congress Monday.
Swalwell was the closest thing Democrats had to a frontrunner in a wide-open governor’s race with nine other candidates. His departure — and Trump’s endorsement of Republican commentator Steve Hilton — promises to reorder the race ahead of the June 2 primary, from which only two candidates, regardless of party, will emerge.
“Donald Trump’s endorsement has all but guaranteed that Steve Hilton will be one of the two candidates in the runoff,” said Dan Schnur, a professor at UC Berkeley’s Institute of Governmental Studies. “Eric Swalwell’s departure has completely eliminated reasonable guesswork on who the other candidate might be.”
That’s not stopped people from trying.
Prediction markets like Kalshi, where users wager on outcomes of political events, show billionaire Tom Steyer’s stock soaring over the weekend. Steyer’s vast personal resources have allowed him to blanket the state, with its expensive media markets, in ads touting his progressive bona fides. A California Democratic Party poll of California likely voters released last week showed Steyer garnering support from 11% of voters, a point behind Swalwell.
But Steyer’s billionaire label could also be a liability against former Rep. Katie Porter, who said on X Monday that she was “(still) the only candidate in this race who is neither a billionaire nor taking corporate PAC money.” Women voters might be drawn to the prospect of electing California’s first female governor in the wake of another scandal involving powerful man, Democratic consultant Steven Maviglio pointed out.
Still, Porter, who polled at 7% in the party poll, has obstacles of her own, including separate videos that surfaced last year of her losing her temper at a staffer in 2021 and a reporter last year.
Then there’s a flock of lower polling candidates who’ve been eyeing a way to break out from the pack.
“Some of those folks are going to get a consideration, especially the ones that have at least some money in their pockets,” said Sacramento State political science professor Kim Nalder.
Backers of San Jose Mayor Matt Mahan committed at least $12 million since the accusations against Swalwell emerged Friday, according to Matt Rodriguez, campaign manager for the Back to Basics independent expenditure committee.
Mahan and other candidate, former Los Angeles Mayor Antonio Villaraigosa, have been critical of unions and California’s regulatory environment, a message that could be attractive to corporate donors as well as “wrong track” voters who believe the state needs a shift in leadership.
Two of the most powerful unions in the state, SEIU California and the California Teachers Association, withdrew their backing of Swalwell over the weekend and must now decide whether they’ll pick a new favorite. The CTA votes on endorsements at quarterly state council meetings; the next one won’t occur until after the June 2 primary, and the elected board is meeting this week to discuss next steps.
A spokesperson for the SEIU said they had nothing to add beyond the organization’s Saturday statement calling on Swalwell to drop out of the race.
Most analysts agree many voters are only now tuning in to a race that’s lacked high-profile names like Newsom.
“The only good thing that’s come out of all this is voters are now very aware of this race,” Maviglio said.
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