On the Democratic side, former Atlanta Mayor Keisha Lance Bottoms leads with 40 percent, nearly 30 points ahead of her closest rival, former DeKalb County CEO and state Labor Commissioner Michael Thurmond. Among Republicans, Lt. Gov. Burt Jones pulls in 22 percent, holding a seven-point edge over Secretary of State Brad Raffensperger. Many voters are undecided — 40 percent of Democrats and 55 percent of Republicans — but with the primaries only six months away, it is difficult to see how Bottoms loses her decisive edge. Things are tighter on the Republican side, but for now Jones seems to have the inside track.
Georgia is just one of 36 states that will elect their governors next year, but it stands out for reasons deeper than its horse-race intrigue. The state sits at the crossroads of a rapidly changing South, home to both rural towns frozen in time and a sprawling Atlanta region of more than 6 million people. Its political identity is equally layered: This is the state that once nurtured the Knights of the Ku Klux Klan and also birthed the Southern Christian Leadership Conference.
It’s a state of more than 7 million active voters, where Republicans and Democrats enjoy roughly an equal share. Joe Biden won the state by nearly 12,000 votes in 2020, and Donald Trump won by 115,000 votes in 2024. On Nov. 4, Democrats flipped two statewide Public Service Commission seats, taking 63 percent of the vote. And Georgia currently boasts two Democratic U.S. senators alongside a twice-elected Republican governor.
Within these paradoxes, a Bottoms-Jones matchup would carry its own symbolism.
Bottoms’ political path has never followed the usual script. She declined to run for a second term as mayor, a rarity in Atlanta politics. She supported Biden early in the 2020 primaries and was mentioned as a possible vice presidential candidate or secretary of health and human services, but ended up serving in a couple of relatively minor roles in Biden’s administration. She often appeared wary of the constant combat of public life. Yet her commanding lead in the polls underscores the centrality of Black women voters in Georgia and across the South. Their role as the Democrats’ most reliable and strategic voting bloc is not new, but the extent of her cross-demographic appeal is striking: 31 percent of white voters and 37 percent of independents prefer her. Only one age group, those 18 to 29, dips below the 30 percent mark.
Jones, meanwhile, occupies a more complicated lane. He bears Make America Great Again (MAGA) credentials, including his involvement in the 2020 fake elector scheme and his past endorsements by Trump. But his political identity is harder to pin down. He is a wealthy businessman who has embraced certain Trump-aligned policies, yet he also makes a point to engage with some Black legislators and has set aside time to visit historically Black college campuses. He appeared at last year’s Black History Month celebration at the state Capitol. His policy commitments might mirror the MAGA agenda, but his personal style occasionally suggests openness, and some African American lawmakers even see him as an occasional ally.
A Bottoms-Jones race could become one of the most closely watched contests in the country, not only for what it reveals about Georgia but for how it foreshadows the early currents of the 2028 presidential cycle. It would test two powerful forces: the rising political influence of Black women and the endurance, or erosion, of the MAGA movement. In that sense, Georgia becomes more than a battleground. It becomes a harbinger.
If Bottoms becomes the Democratic nominee and goes on to win, she would shift the center of gravity not only within the state but within the national party. And she would do so while two of the Democratic Party’s highest-profile governors — California’s Gavin Newsom and Pennsylvania’s Josh Shapiro — and other ambitious Democratic and Republican politicians look southward for clues about the national mood.
And somewhere, watching even more intently than the rest of them, would be another woman with a deep stake in the outcome. If Keisha Lance Bottoms pulls off a victory next November, one person in particular will feel the political implications immediately. Her name is Kamala Harris.
Governing’s opinion columns reflect the views of their authors and not necessarily those of Governing’s editors or management.
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