No racial or ethnic group holds the majority of Georgia’s population. According to the latest census estimates, the state’s non-Hispanic white population stands at 49.6 percent, the Black population at 33.2 percent and the Latino population at just over 11 percent. With other racial and ethnic groups considered, minorities now account for just over half of Georgia’s population, which mirrors what demographers say America will look like in 2045. Of course numbers aren’t everything, and we know there is considerable diversity between and within racial and ethnic groups. But demographics do count for something, especially given Georgia’s and most of the Deep South’s racially divided past.
For Democrats, it’s a critical test of how to expand the base — attracting younger, whiter, less frequent and more independent voters — without alienating the loyal coalition anchored by Black women. But it is also a test of how to rebound from a disappointing national election, one that left supporters confused and deeply demoralized. For Republicans in a state that has elected two Democratic U.S. senators, the challenge lies in tempering right-wing populism and steering back toward the center, all while addressing Georgia’s and the nation’s growing demographic diversity.
In Georgia, we’ve already seen some signs of that in the actions of a likely Republican candidate for governor, Lt. Gov. Burt Jones. He is a wealthy ally of Donald Trump who has taken steps to moderate his image, visiting historically Black colleges and universities and appearing at Black History Month events. His past has been a bit sketchy: He avoided indictment in the 2020 election interference probe after a judge disqualified Fulton County District Attorney Fani Willis over a conflict of interest. He also was one of 16 so-called “fake electors” who signed a certificate stating falsely that Trump had won Georgia in that election.
Despite that political baggage, Jones is polling ahead of an already announced Republican candidate, state Attorney General Chris Carr. In contrast to Jones, Carr has drifted to the right to appeal to the GOP’s conservative base: Carr recently embraced Trump’s calls for mass deportations of Venezuelan immigrant gang members and declined to oppose cuts to federal higher education research funding, despite the severe impact on top-tier institutions including Emory, Georgia Tech and the University of Georgia. Meanwhile, both appear to be neglecting a key bloc in the general elections: suburban college-educated women, many of whom support public research and reject anti-immigrant rhetoric.
Democrats don’t offer much, at least so far, in terms of addressing Georgia’s evolving demographics and politics. State Sen. Jason Esteves, a former Atlanta school board chair, is the only politician with any kind of name recognition who has announced his gubernatorial candidacy. If he were to win, the attorney, small-business owner and former teacher would be Georgia’s first Afro-Latino governor. For that to happen, Esteves would need to mobilize the growing Latino electorate without losing support among the state’s Black voters.
Former Atlanta Mayor Keisha Lance Bottoms, whose profile rose nationally after serving as a senior adviser in the Biden administration, has not officially announced but has filed paperwork to begin raising campaign donations. If she chooses to enter the governor’s race, however, Bottoms would have to answer lingering questions about her decision not to seek a second term as mayor and her perceived lack of focus on core economic issues affecting her predominantly Black base. Her campaign would likely hinge on her deep name recognition and appeal to Black women voters.
No matter who eventually joins the race, the path forward will be unpredictable. It doesn’t help that most of the announced and likely candidates seem captured in the web of old-school politics. Republicans should be asking themselves what Americans will be expecting from conservative politicians after two years of tariff taxes and erosion of democratic norms. Democrats should be paying closer attention to the crowds that U.S. Sen. Bernie Sanders and U.S. Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez have been attracting all over the nation, including in conservative strongholds.
I believe Democratic voters are going to demand a stronger fighter who will advocate for programs like universal health insurance and sustainable wages to lift the working class out of poverty. I believe Republican voters are going to grow tired of nonstop cultural wars being waged against minorities while their own economic prospects worsen.
Georgia isn’t just a swing state; it’s emblematic of the factors, demographic and otherwise, that will shape our politics for decades to come — factors that determine whether American democracy rebounds or takes another turn for the worse.
Governing’s opinion columns reflect the views of their authors and not necessarily those of Governing’s editors or management.
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