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Top Three Candidates in the California Governor’s Race

Polls show some Democrats in a large primary field gaining support. But if the election were held today, two Republicans would likely advance to the runoffs, shutting Democrats out.

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Riverside Sheriff Chad Bianco speaks during a California Chamber of Commerce panel discussion with candidates for California governor at the SAFE Credit Union Convention Center in Sacramento in June 2025.
(PAUL KITAGAKI JR./TNS)
With nearly half of its voters registered as Democrats and only a quarter registered as Republicans, California is one of the bluest states in the union. The state has gone for Democrats in every presidential election since 1992. But Democrats are facing the prospect of being shut out of the governor’s office next year, even without a single charismatic Republican winning over left-leaning voters.

Recent polls show a large pack of Democratic candidates trailing two Republican candidates in the gubernatorial primary scheduled for June. Under California’s voting system, the top two vote-getters in the primary will proceed to a general election in November, no matter what party they’re from. If the primary were held today, according to the most recent polling, that would mean two Republican candidates, each pulling in just 14 percent of the primary vote, battling it out for the governor’s office in the fall. A lot could change before primary day, but the Democratic Party is increasingly nervous.

Below are voters’ current top three choices, according to a poll of 1,200 likely voters conducted between March 31- April 5 by the public opinion firm Evitarus.
  1. Chad Bianco, the Republican sheriff of Riverside County, has 14 percent support from likely voters, including voters leaning toward his candidacy.
  2. Steve Hilton, a conservative commentator and Fox News host, also has 14 percent support, with a smaller share of direct supporters and a larger share of supporters leaning toward voting for him.
  3. Eric Swalwell, a Democratic U.S. representative from California, has the highest level of direct support for a Democrat, with 11 percent of voters in the poll backing his campaign and another 1 percent leaning his way. Two other Democrats, former U.S. Rep. Katie Porter and Tom Steyer, a billionaire philanthropist, have 7 percent and 11 percent respectively. A poll conducted by the same firm a few weeks earlier showed a three-way tie at 10 percent for the leading Democrats in the race.
Jared Brey is a senior staff writer for Governing. He can be found on Twitter at @jaredbrey.