The most expensive Senate primary in U.S. history is racing toward its climax Tuesday, with candidates scrambling across a vast and divided state to shore up political bases and even push into rival turf.
The Lone Star Five also have ramped up the pace of final ads on traditional TV and social media, flooding Dallas–Fort Worth, a vote-rich stronghold large enough to tip a fragmented field.
Democrats Jasmine Crockett of Dallas and James Talarico of Austin are vying to harness unusually high early turnout that includes a surge of new voters, adding uncertainty amid a rash of late polls.
Crockett has centered her campaign on health care, food security, affordable housing and confronting President Donald Trump. Talarico has focused on public education and economic fairness, using a faith-infused message to widen the party’s reach.
On the GOP side, John Cornyn, Ken Paxton and Wesley Hunt are locked in a three-way match that requires a majority to win, otherwise the top two finishers move on to a runoff.
The Republicans are split more by tone than policy, with Cornyn emphasizing stability and experience, Paxton relying on the MAGA-aligned grassroots and Hunt pitching generational change.
With early voting over, candidates are pivoting to turnout ahead of Tuesday’s primary.
GOP Air Blitz
The Texas Senate primary has shattered national ad spending records, topping $122 million last week and climbing, according to ad tracking firm AdImpact.
Cornyn, the incumbent senator, and his allies have powered much of that tally, drawing sharp contrasts with Paxton, the attorney general, over character and conduct.
They repeatedly have highlighted his impeachment by the Republican-led Texas House – the Senate later acquitted him – and personal allegations tied to his divorce from state Sen. Angela Paxton.
“Crooked Ken Paxton cheated on his wife,” the ad’s narrator says. “She’s divorcing him on biblical grounds. So now Paxton’s wrecking another home, sleeping around with a married mother of seven.”
The narrator says the GOP primary comes down to a choice between “the wife cheater and fraud” Paxton and “Texas workhorse” Cornyn.
Paxton, after largely shrugging off the personal attacks for most of the campaign, responded directly with an ad featuring his daughter Mattie Hayworth and her family.
Hayworth also penned an op-ed to back up the spot, describing her father as a devoted Christian and family man who will interrupt meetings to take a FaceTime call from his grandkids.
“A lot of people might call him General Paxton, Ken Paxton, but our kids call him Poppop,” she says in the ad.
Hunt, a Houston congressman with fewer financial resources, has had limited on-air presence since a burst of biographical ads last summer.
Instead, he’s pursued a grassroots campaign with more than 50 events statewide, including stops last week in Denton and Midlothian.
Paxton has attended gatherings organized by a super PAC supporting him, including one Saturday in Fort Worth.
All three were set for weekend national TV appearances, reflecting the importance of a race that could determine whether Republicans hold their slim Senate edge.
A core theme for Cornyn has been electability, warning a Paxton win in the primary would jeopardize the GOP’s hold on the office.
Speaking Friday to Dallas-based conservative talk radio host Mark Davis, Cornyn said either Crockett or Talarico could capitalize on what he describes as Paxton’s baggage to flip the seat for Democrats.
“I can beat either one of them handily and help down ballot,” Cornyn said. “Ken would be in serious trouble.”
Paxton counters that Cornyn’s heavy spending and attacks are what threaten Republican prospects in the fall.
“The Democrats’ biggest ally in this race is the kamikaze campaign Cornyn’s running,” Paxton posted on X last week. “He’s desperate, he knows he is going to lose, and his only goal is to hurt me and the party. This is not someone who cares about the Senate Majority.”
The Trump Factor
The GOP contenders have sought an endorsement from Trump, who repeatedly has said he likes all three and declined to pick a favorite.
They prominently feature pictures of themselves with the president in their campaign materials and flocked to his visit Friday in Corpus Christi, eager to capitalize on at least physical proximity to the most powerful force in Republican politics.
Cornyn flew with Trump aboard Air Force One along with Sen. Ted Cruz and U.S. Reps. Lance Gooden of Terrell and Michael Cloud of Victoria, who represents the area.
Gooden has endorsed Paxton, while Cruz has stayed neutral.
Before starting his remarks, a reporter asked Trump whether he had made an endorsement decision.
“Pretty much, yeah,” Trump responded, but wouldn’t tip his hand.
Later, he gave brief shoutouts during his speech.
“We have a great attorney general, Ken Paxton,” Trump said. “We have a great senator, John Cornyn.”
Despite the contest between them, he said, “They’re both great people too.”
As he was running through the list of congressional Republicans at the event, he recognized Hunt as “another friend of mine who’s doing very well.”
(Smiley N. Pool/The Dallas Morning News/TNS)
Democrats Chase Turnout
Crockett spent the week appearing outside early voting locations in Harris, Brazoria, Tarrant and Collin counties and rallying supporters across South Texas and her home base in Dallas County.
“I wanted to let the people of my district know that I would not be where I am today without them,” she said.
The two-term congresswoman said her high-name recognition allows her to compete without matching Republican fundraising.
“This is a test of my theories,” Crockett said.
She said her experience as a lawyer, state representative and member of Congress gives her unique insight into how to fix the problems facing Texans.
“They need somebody that understands the challenges and is ready and willing and has been advocating for them,” she told The Dallas Morning News.
Crockett has tried to reach infrequent and nonvoters, including several at Houston club events where she took the mic and made her case. Crockett supporters scoffed at questions about her electability.
“That’s a tool being used to discredit her,” said Nicole Pruitt, a communications worker from Forest Hill after a Fort Worth event. “The base is energized behind her and I’m seeing a diverse group of voters coming out for her.”
That show of confidence gained a high-profile boost Friday when former Vice President Kamala Harris endorsed Crockett and made robocalls to voters on her behalf.
Crockett delivered an emotional speech aimed at humanizing Harris and poking sharply at Trump at the 2024 Democratic National Convention and served as a national co-chair for Harris’ presidential campaign.
Battle for North Texas
Talarico, a state representative from Austin, campaigned in Crockett’s backyard, holding a rally in Dallas and a water drive in Sand Branch, an impoverished Dallas County community.
“If we don’t win, we can’t help people,” Talarico said before passing out bottles to residents without running water.
At the Longhorn Ballroom, Talarico said he was leading a movement that replaces the politics of hate with love.
“Love that can heal what’s broken in this country,” he said.
His closing TV ad criticizes immigration agents “kidnapping people off our streets.”
“This is America,” he says. “We’re not supposed to be afraid of our government. Our government is supposed to be afraid of us.”
At the rally, Grand Prairie teacher Nathan Lewis said Talarico’s faith resonated.
“I’m really excited about a politician that emphasizes his faith from more of the left side of the aisle and takes away the kind of monopoly that we’ve seen in the Republican Party,” he said.
Energized by the high-profile Senate race, Texans have turned out in force. In Dallas County, Democrats outpaced Republicans by nearly 3-1 in early voting that ended Friday.
According to the Elections Department, 187,929 Democrats cast ballots compared with 63,952 Republicans, surpassing 2024’s totals of 60,458 Democrats and 44,520 Republicans.
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