Last week, the three-term governor celebrated his victories with bill signings across the state. Soon, he’ll campaign for a fourth term and a shot to be Texas’ longest serving governor, eclipsing the 14 years Republican Rick Perry served.
“He has really found his policy voice and is providing exceptional leadership on the policy and political side of things,” said Genevieve Collins, state director for Americans for Prosperity, who has worked with Abbott on school choice and other issues. “He really laid out a vision for Texas and not only articulated it to voters, but rallied legislators to support that vision and deliver on it.”
Supporters and adversaries agree Abbott is on top of his political game, but they differ on what the ultimate result of the 2025 legislative session will be. Abbott is expected to cruise to reelection and potentially help fortify Texas as a Republican stronghold for years to come. Reelection could also propel Abbott in the 2028 Republican presidential sweepstakes, when the party picks a nominee to replace President Donald Trump.
Abbott is also developing his next set of legislative priorities, which will include finding ways to stop local property taxes from spiraling, catering education to modern workforce jobs, finishing the work to stiffen bail policies and continuing Texas’ economic growth.
“He grew into his own as governor this session. He shaped the party politically and steered a Legislature that backed him and followed through,” said Brandon Rottinghaus, a University of Houston political scientist who a year ago published the book "Rick Perry: A Political Life." “Abbott has washed away all the talk about not being conservative enough, or not being as important as the lieutenant governor, or not being able to seal the deal legislatively. All of that talk is now washing away with the success of this session.”
Detractors, including Democrats, contend the legislative session and Abbott’s voucher-like educational savings accounts for private schools could lead to his downfall. Those policies, coupled with what they say is the potential for an economic downturn as Trump pushes his tariff policy, could put Abbott and Texas Republicans in a perilous political situation.
“Private school vouchers will be his legacy, for better or for worse, and we will see this program leach billions of dollars out of our public education system in the years to come,” said state Rep. James Talarico, an Austin Democrat who is considering a statewide run against Abbott.
“Decades from now, we’re going to look back at this private school voucher bill and recognize that it was the beginning of the end for public education in the state of Texas.”
Abbott declined to be interviewed after the legislative session ended. A spokesperson offered a list of accomplishments when asked questions about the session. The list included $10 billion in property tax relief, a $20 billion investment in water infrastructure, establishing a Texas Cyber Command and banning the sale of Texas land to “foreign adversaries like China.”
“Working with Lieutenant Governor Dan Patrick, Speaker Dustin Burrows, and leaders in the Texas Legislature, we delivered historic conservative legislation that will benefit Texans for generations to come,” Abbott said in a news release. “I look forward to signing these bills into law to make Texas stronger, safer, and more prosperous than ever in the history of our great state.”
Abbott’s one elusive priority was a proposal that would have denied bail to repeat offenders accused of major violent crimes. All of his other bail policy proposals passed.
Dave Carney, Abbott’s chief political strategist, said the governor had a very successful legislative session, but the work is not done.
“We made a lot of progress and we want to continue to keep the economic engine roaring,” Carney said. “We will continue to work on public safety issues and work closely with the Trump administration to make sure that the border stays closed.”
Still Work to Do
Now that the legislative session is over, the Texas political scene will feature the 2026 midterm and state executive elections.
Abbott is ready for a fight. He came into the year with over $70 million in campaign cash. That amount will swell on June 23 when the state-mandated, legislative session moratorium on political fundraising is lifted.
Abbott is not likely to face strong opposition in the March 2026 GOP primary. In 2022, he easily defused primary challenges from former state Sen. Don Huffines of Dallas and former GOP Chairman Allen West of Garland, who now leads the Dallas County Republican Party.
The governor’s staggering campaign war chest and popularity with Texas voters makes him a difficult target for Democrats, who are searching for a challenger.
Talarico, the state lawmaker from Austin, is considering a campaign. If he doesn’t run, former U.S. Rep. Beto O’Rourke could seek a rematch of the 2022 general election contest that he lost to Abbott. O’Rourke said he would do whatever Texans asked of him, including a run for the Senate seat held by Republican incumbent John Cornyn.
Democrats are expected to make education, and Abbott’s push for a voucher program, an issue to attack Abbott’s record. They also contend Abbott is out of touch with average Texans.
Taking a Victory Lap
In contrast, Abbott’s campaign will be a victory lap in the contest to fulfill his 2022 “school choice” promise.
Many conservatives have long sought to make Texas the largest state with a plan that allows students to use public dollars to attend private schools.
Such plans have been thwarted by a coalition of Democrats and rural Republicans who fear a voucher plan would drain public schools of critical resources, something that Abbott has vehemently rejected.
In 2023, Abbott pushed a voucher-like plan in earnest, but it died after 24 House Republicans voted with Democrats to block it. That prompted Abbott to target Republican House lawmakers against his school choice plan in the 2024 Republican primaries. He managed to unseat eight House incumbents. And by the beginning of the legislative session, the House had 26 new Republicans, and most of them were supportive of Abbott’s plan.
With the backing of House Speaker Dustin Burrows, a Lubbock Republican, and Lt. Gov. Dan Patrick, the Senate’s presiding officer, Abbott’s “school choice” plan passed both chambers and in May he signed it into law.
The new law allows parents to apply for an education savings account to pay for private school costs. The program costs $1 billion annually through 2027, but the Legislative budget board projects the cost to exceed $4 billion a year in 2030.
In tandem with the voucher-like plan, lawmakers approved $8.5 billion in the largest education spending bill in Texas history, though some public school advocates and Democrats say it wasn’t enough.
“He should be deeply ashamed of what he’s done this session,” said Gene Wu, who is leader of the House Democratic Caucus. “Item after item he did the opposite of what the Texans have asked for. He didn’t take care of the things we needed.”
“We had a $16 billion hole in our education budget,” Wu added. “We put eight and a half into it.”
Many Republicans disagree.
“The governor gets an A-plus for his work on the session, because he wanted to get school vouchers, and he got that done,” said Republican political consultant Vinny Minchillo. “Had he not gotten that done, it would have been an F.”
Not Worried About Democrats
Carney, Abbott’s political strategist, said Texans support school choice and that Democrats are on the wrong side of many issues. He said he isn’t worried about a potential Democratic Party rival for governor. Abbott has had general election victories for governor over former State Sen. Wendy Davis (2014), former Dallas County Sheriff Lupe Valdez (2018) and O’Rourke (2022).
“It’s irrelevant what the Democrats do,” Carney said. “We will make our case. “We’ll tell voters what we’ve done and that we want to continue to build on those successes.”
Abbott will likely use campaign resources to pick off some House Democratic incumbents, Carney said.
During last year’s GOP primaries, Abbott gave more than $6 million to House candidates, many of whom challenged incumbents who blocked the governor’s school choice plan in the 2023 legislative session. He donated another $2 million to his favored candidates during the runoff period.
Carney doesn’t expect a repeat of that kind of action, given Abbott’s near perfect list of priority achievements. He said, however, Abbott is ready to protect House Republicans who may be targeted for supporting school choice.
“We will be helping a number of those people if they end up getting primaried,” Carney said. “But it won’t be anything like last time, when we went on an offensive. This will be more defensive in terms of protecting the 86 House Republicans who voted for school choice.”
Abbott keeps his political machinery running even when he’s not on the ballot, making it more difficult for a candidate to mobilize against him.
Some analysts say a potential Achilles' heel scenario is Trump, whose tariff-driven economic policies have some predicting a declining economy — even in largely prosperous Texas.
“Politics have become so nationalized that if Trump is popular a year from now, Abbott will be positioned fine,” said former state Rep. Mark Strama, a Democrat. “If the economy takes a nosedive, I think we learned in 2024 that bad economies are a big headwind for incumbents. If you’re the Democrats, that’s your path.”
Rottinghaus, the political scientist, said it was too early for a 2026 school voucher backlash.
“The political liability of vouchers is going to be about spiraling costs and efficiency of the vouchers when it comes to educating kids,” Rottinghaus said. “That’s something that definitely could have an impact on Abbott’s legacy, but those consequences probably won’t be felt immediately.”
If Abbott wins and serves more than 14 years, he passes Perry as the longest serving governor in Texas history. As a sitting governor with a string of conservative accomplishments and a national profile, he could be in the GOP mix for president in 2028. Term limits prevent Trump from another White House run.
When asked if any of that was appealing to Abbott, Carney replied: “Absolutely not. His focus is on the people of Texas and moving the state forward.”
Next on the Agenda
As he signs various bills into law, Abbott has some housekeeping matters to address. He’ll then focus on what’s next on his agenda.
Abbott is under pressure to kill a proposed ban on retail hemp shops. Industry leaders and activists are part of a growing backlash against the ban, and Abbott has until June 22 to veto any legislation that passed in the last 10 days of the session, including individual items on the budget.
After wrapping up session items, Abbott will develop a campaign platform that typically dovetails into the next legislative session.
His team has indicated one of the big issues up next is getting a more significant property tax reduction for Texans by making sure tax cuts mandated by the state aren’t offset by local increases. It’s being called property tax reform.
“He’s going to begin to go on a crusade for property tax reform,” said Collins, the Americans for Prosperity state director. “He sees that as a bipartisan issue that is affecting every Texan, and that there’s some real opportunity to make some structural changes to property taxes, which will be an opportunity to expand the tent for his cause and his vision.”
Carney added that “there’s more things to do with education, particularly career enhancement and the ability for high school kids to have a pathway to a career without going to college.”
“We’re talking about good-paying jobs for people who work with their hands, people who do coding and cyber security and plumbing and welding, electrician work,” Carney said. “That’s important.”
Abbott’s goal since becoming governor has been continuing Texas’ economic prosperity, including bolstering the state’s semiconductor industry and getting businesses to move to Texas. He’ll continue to stress the need to be prepared for the onslaught of artificial intelligence.
The governor also has prioritized border security, including developing Operation Lone Star, the more than $12 billion initiative to stop illegal crossings, human trafficking and the flow of drugs into the country.
Carney said Abbott would remain vigilant in trying to put the “genie back in the bottle” after some policy decisions made by former President Joe Biden that weakened border security. Abbott will also continue with bail policy changes “to keep dangerous suspects in jail.” Border security is still a critical issue, though it’s still unclear how much will state officials have to continue funding Operation Lone Star with Trump in the White House.
The recently passed budget included $3.4 billion for border security efforts, down from the $6.5 billion requested by Abbott. It would bring the total spent on Operation Lone Star since 2021 to over $15 billion.
“Honestly, a lot of things in Texas are dependent on how the Congress and federal government react and what they do,” Carney said. “We’re copacetic with what the president’s trying to do. The governor wants to be a productive partner with the president.”
As that unfolds, Abbott’s legacy appears to be taking shape.
“Texas is Greg Abbott’s state,” Minchillo said. “Make no mistake about it.”
_____
©2025 The Dallas Morning News. Distributed by Tribune Content Agency, LLC.
