7 States Where Demographics Haven't Determined Their Political Destiny -- Yet
From weak state parties to regional differences, we look at why these states are defying demographics.
Louis Jacobson is the senior correspondent at the fact-checking website PolitiFact. He is also senior author of the 2016 and 2018 editions of the Almanac of American Politics and was a contributing writer for the 2000 and 2004 editions. For Governing, Jacobson has written a column on state politics since the 2010 election cycle, including handicapping gubernatorial, state legislative and state attorney general races. Before that, he wrote a similar column for Stateline.org and Roll Call. He has also handicapped state and federal races for such publications as the Cook Political Report, the Rothenberg Political Report, PoliticsPA.com and the Tampa Bay Times. Earlier in his career, Jacobson served as deputy editor of the congressional newspaper Roll Call, as the founding editor of its affiliate, CongressNow, and as a staff correspondent at National Journal. In 2014, he received the Weidenbaum Center Award for Evidence-Based Journalism from Washington University in St. Louis, and in 2017, the Society of American Business Editors and Writers gave him a Best in Business award for his economics coverage.
From weak state parties to regional differences, we look at why these states are defying demographics.
Following years of turmoil and gridlock in many states, newly elected governors are getting a lot done.
Moderate-to liberal candidates won in five states, while conservatives were successful in two.
Despite all the teacher strikes and walkouts, voters largely stuck to partisan lines at the ballot box.
Their victories mirrored their numerical gains in the governors' races.
If they ultimately flip the four seats where they have the lead, the party would take the majority of attorney general seats nationwide.
In Georgia, Democrat Stacey Abrams refuses to concede.
The likely outcome of six races has changed in the last couple weeks, with three becoming tossups. But one thing is still clear: Democrats are set to gain ground.
Eight states have competitive elections next week whose outcomes could influence a number of policies. But these down-ballot races are largely overshadowed.
The GOP is at risk of losing nine seats, while Democrats could lose three. If there's a big Democratic wave, Republicans could lose their majority.
The party's outlook has improved since last month. It's likely to gain between three and 10 seats in November.
Since June, six races have shifted in the party's favor.
Education has emerged as an issue this fall beyond school board and superintendent races.
While they likely won't win a majority nationwide, the party is poised to gain control of some chambers. How many depends on the size of the potential blue wave.
In seven states, third-party candidates could sway the outcome in November.
Just over half of the 36 gubernatorial races are competitive.
In governors' races, many of the challengers are decades younger than their state's current leader. And young voters may be more mobilized.
There are early, but scattered, signs that Democrats will use new tariffs as a wedge issue.
It was unusual 10 years ago. But that's changing.
They have become more competitive in three states -- all where Republicans are currently in power.
In the 10 states holding races, only one looks competitive.
When governors resign because of scandals or promotions, do their replacements run for a term of their own? And if they do, are they successful? A larger-than-normal number of replacement governors is on the campaign trail this year.
For now, it's the Republicans. Seven GOP-held AG seats, compared to three for the Democrats, are being hotly contested.
Voter ID battles and cybersecurity concerns have intensified and elevated these races. Republicans have more seats -- and the most to lose.
History suggests that the answer is yes -- but 2018 is a unique year.
Republicans can take some comfort that their state legislative dominance is unlikely to evaporate in a single election cycle.
While they're rarely successful, efforts to remove state Supreme Court justices over policy disagreements are becoming more common.
In the 36 gubernatorial races this fall, all but 10 of the states are currently led by Republicans.
Most states limit governors to two terms, but not New York and Wisconsin, where Andrew Cuomo and Scott Walker are both seeking reelection this year.
Waves usually just influence congressional seats. But a look at past wave elections tells a different story.
Key GOP-held attorneys general seats are becoming more competitive, paving the way for Democrats to possibly flip their balance in the states.
In 2009, Louis Jacobson ranked the states with the worst leadership and policy challenges. Almost a decade later, what's changed?
More than a dozen cases on partisan and racial gerrymandering are winding their way through the court system. Two cases, in particular, could become two of the most important this decade.
Phil Bredesen joins a group of 16 former governors who have run since 2000. Their campaigns -- failed or otherwise -- offer insight into his chances in 2018.
These politicians and candidates are breaking with today's aggressively partisan times to advocate a more centrist line.
There are fewer organizations gauging how citizens feel about their governors. Political experts say it's a problem.
The GOP holds the majority of governorships, but the number of those vulnerable next year has doubled.
As the practice spreads to more states, Census data suggest it could benefit both parties.
A hint: In states, it all starts with the top of the ticket.
While Democratic AGs go on the offensive, their Republican counterparts are urging Trump to get even tougher against Obama-era policies.
The wealthy are increasingly seeking their state's highest office. Winning has been the easy part.
In this year's class, even the weakest-performing governors are surviving.
The president's victory has been extensively explored. But a state- and county-level look at the data offers stunning evidence of just how large the shifts were in certain places.
With elections in dozens of states, the leading parties have reason to worry in almost half of them.
We rated races for president, governor, state legislature and attorney general.
Judicial elections weren't a clear sweep for either party.
It was a lesser-noticed but important downballot trend from election night.
Democrats managed to flip the Vermont LG seat blue -- even as the state governorship flipped red.
Most races for states' attorneys general maintained the status quo, but one seat switched to Republican control.
With one election likely headed for a recount, Democrats have lost power in three states, including traditionally blue Vermont.
Our final pre-election predictions for the Electoral College, gubernatorial, attorney general and legislative races.
The 2015-2016 state supreme court election cycle has attracted big money from outside groups.
Unlike the gubernatorial races, Republicans are the ones playing defense.
Democrats are looking to narrow the GOP’s historically large hold on gubernatorial seats. Here's our state-by-state analysis of each election.
In less than a month, our Electoral College handicapping went from indicating a narrowing presidential contest to one that is widening.
According to our state-by-state projections, Democrats have their best chance since 2010 to take back control of some chambers.
Our latest handicapping shows four states will likely determine which candidate wins.
Four contests are competitive, giving Republicans a chance to flip three seats.
These are the districts in each competitive state that could decide November's presidential election.
It's hard to find candidates of any party this year openly supporting free trade -- even if they've touted its benefits in the past.
Few of the best- and worst-performing states were in the same position just three years ago.
The latest state-by-state predictions show Hillary Clinton well-positioned to win in November.
Missouri's soon-to-be former governor talks about his accomplishments and disappointments, party politics and what's next.
He escaped the curse of sitting governors who lose a presidential bid. Will he ride his statewide success into a national campaign again in 2020?
Where it exists, it remains popular. But five states have axed it since 2011, and there's a federal push to abolish the option to vote for one party across the ballot.
In a year of political upheaval, the gubernatorial elections stand out for how little has changed.
In some close races, early voting cutbacks and photo ID requirements could impact the outcome.
Funding has replaced Common Core as the major education issue in most state contests.
Near rock bottom in state chambers, Democrats are hoping to capitalize on a presidential year.
Top-of-the-ticket insurgents like Donald Trump and Bernie Sanders often show little interest in helping other like-minded candidates win lower offices.
Republicans currently dominate the office that holds significant power over elections.
The large gubernatorial class of 2010 has until recently been scandal-free.
In an interview, Scott Pattison of the National Governors Association says he wants to guide the group through a period of fierce partisanship.
Our latest Electoral College handicapping shows nearly a dozen states are increasingly leaning toward picking a Democrat to be the next president.
Republicans play offense in three states, while Democrats have a shot at flipping one seat.
At one time, the statewide office was mostly held by conservative Democrats. Now Republicans dominate.
Most political polls are still conducted over the phone, but they're becoming more problematic and less accurate. That's why online polls have emerged.
Eight of the 12 states with elections this year could soon have a new party in power.
Trying and failing to take the White House has historically spelled trouble for governors' future political careers. In 2016, however, there may be one exception.
The Delaware governor, who has led the Democratic and National governors associations, talks about workforce development, the state of governors, the future of his party and more.
At least seven states could vote either way in next year's presidential election, but that number may be even higher. If it is, Democrats should worry.
Over the past 30 years, there have only been a handful of elections where a governor made a difference in a caucus or primary outcome.
Republicans took the night’s biggest prize, but Democrats also notched some victories.
From governors to treasurers, several states are voting on their leadership starting this weekend.
Already in the minority, Democratic attorneys general face upcoming elections in a tough mix of states. We break down the likely outcome of each.
Almost a year into their new job, most have been largely successful. But some are struggling to lead.
The most powerful political offices can sometimes come from surprising and seemingly insignificant places.
In this era of partisan politics, some are bold enough to take a bipartisan path.
The job prepares politicians for the next level. But not many use it as a stepping stone.
A state-by-state breakdown of the 14 upcoming elections shows where Democrats can take a few seats from Republicans.
From the presidency down, each party is more likely to win elections at certain levels of government. Whether that’s good or bad depends on your political views.
Republicans' anti-immigration rhetoric is turning off Hispanic voters, yet they're better than Democrats at finding Hispanic candidates to climb the political ladder.
Based on 2014 elections, dynastic branding doesn't mean as much as it used too.
National organizations that represent states and localities are finding ways to keep partisanship out of their ranks.
While many Republican states have made efforts to repeal the education standards, Wyoming appears happy to move forward. How has Common Core thrived in such a solidly GOP state?
The number of statehouse reporters has drastically declined, but journalists see reasons for optimism.
Despite holding far fewer seats overall, the Democrats have more governorships to defend than the Republicans.
In addition to being presidential battlegrounds, these states will host several other pivotal contests.
After more than a decade writing about the states, Louis Jacobson reflects on what he has discovered.
If history proves correct, then losing the presidency would help Democrats regain Congressional, gubernatorial and state legislative seats.
Governing rated three types of contests during the 2014 campaign cycle: gubernatorial races, state attorney general races, and control of the state legislatures.
The results in several contested races could provide a small amount of solace to Democrats.
The Republicans will end up increasing the number of state chambers they control by nine.
Republicans racked up victories in contests for lieutenant governor, secretary of state and school superintendent.
The party was able to flip open seats in Arkansas and Nevada and now leads Democrats in attorney general offices nationally.
Republicans not only defended their most vulnerable governors, they flipped several blue states.
Though overshadowed by the gubernatorial and state legislative races, the contests for lieutenant governor, secretary of state and state school superintendent can be high-stakes battles.
Our final pre-election handicapping of the gubernatorial, attorney general and legislative contests.
Tea Party candidates infiltrated the U.S. Senate primaries this year, but the group failed to form any real challenges to Republican governors.
Unlike four years ago, incumbent governors are most vulnerable this election cycle. We've rated every race.
The battle for control of state legislatures has gotten a little more competitive in recent months, with Democrats still playing defense.
Recognizing the vast influence that judges can have on state policy, their races have received a lot of money this election year.
Why aren't there more female governors? A look at historical data sheds some light on women's campaigns for the top office.
With one month to go, the Democrats and Republicans are in a dead heat to win the most seats.
Republican mayors are rare in America’s big cities today. The few surviving ones have tips for getting into and staying in office.
The Democratic Party is likely to gain a few seats after the GOP's big gains in 2010.
The number of gubernatorial elections that are too close to call has nearly doubled over the past few months.
The GOP has more seats in jeopardy since the party's big gains in 2010.
While the final lineup of measures is still being sorted out, five broad themes are emerging.
In at least five gubernatorial races this fall, the outcome may depend on how well a third-party candidate fares.
All eyes may be on the gubernatorial seats up for election this fall, but there are a handful of competitive LG contests in the works.
Three candidates running for governor show it's possible to rebound from earlier disastrous campaigns.
Governors like Mitt Romney have typically lost popularity at home when they made a run for the presidency. Will the current governors being talked about as potential 2016 candidates suffer the same fate?
Democrats hold fewer chambers but have more at risk this year than Republicans. Here's a breakdown of what to expect in every state legislature's elections.
A surprising number of this year's rising stars are seeking higher office.
Which incumbent governors face a tough road ahead and which are expected to win re-election easily?
Several state-run insurance exchanges have verged on disastrous, but the states may be too blue to give Republican gubernatorial candidates much of a boost.
With increasing partisan polarization, there's little reason for a Democratic or Republican governor to head to the middle, putting governors with bipartisan appeal at risk of becoming extinct.
Senate races can have coattails for gubernatorial contests, but the impact is far from guaranteed.
With voter ID laws a bone of contention, more attention and money is flowing to state secretary of state contests.
They may not have a big impact on elections this November, but that could change down the road.
The cumulative impact of voting-rule changes on the outcome of several key state races in November looks to be hit or miss.
Republicans hold the lead in governorships, but Democrats may be making slight gains in this year's gubernatorial races.
We examine the tossup gubernatorial races in the six states where votes will likely matter the most.
As Texans head to the polls in the year's first primary today, we look at how the Republicans are faring in this year’s gubernatorial races.
Increasingly, these associations are being used as proving grounds for governors that want to run for a national office.
Clarence Anthony, executive director of the National League of Cities, who says mayors have more influence with the public than the federal government.
A look at several states where elections could change K-12 education policy.
How elections in 2014 could shape education policy in the states.
Since we last published a list of 12 state legislators to watch in January 2012, we’ve seen one legislator rocket to national stardom, two abruptly, and voluntarily, leave politics altogether and the rest continue to soldier on in the political trenches.
Here's the rankings for AG offices up for re-election in November.
It’s a tough time to be a politician, but these state lawmakers are really making a mark.
The FCC wants to modernize AM radio, which has lost listeners in recent years. Can it work?
An overview of what happened on Election Day 2013 in statewide, legislative and mayoral races.
Some think a new voting process could heal many of the nation's political system's ills.
A breakdown of some of the most important races and ballot initiatives to watch.
The Granite State has a unique governmental structure that ultimately gives residents more power than state representatives.
Despite the governor's best efforts, the economy is struggling and so are his approval ratings.
It's generally true that if things are good in state, than things are good for the governor. There are some exceptions, though.
California and Pennsylvania offer a clear picture of the state of redistricting in the U.S.
National Republicans aren't faring well among Hispanic voters. Are state GOP candidates doing any better?
Governing looks at the seats that are currently leaning Democratic.
Now that Gov. Rick Perry isn't running for re-election, will Texas stay Republican? Which of the 38 gubernatorial contests are tilting Republican?
After Rhode Island Gov. Lincoln Chafee joined the Democratic Party in May -- his second switch in six years -- we looked back at how other politicians have fared since a switch.
Just about as weak as Democrats are in the reddest states.
Despite opposition from national Democrats, the former Vermont governor's bid to build up party infrastructure in every state was a success in the unlikeliest of places -- at least while it lasted.
Some Democratic and Republican states are pushing more ideological policies, but not all.
Not as successful at moving into the governor's seat as one might think, according to an analysis of data from the past quarter century.
Last week, we revealed who wasn't in danger. Now find out which 10 AG seats are competitive.
More than 30 attorneys general seats are up for election in 2013-2014. But a whooping 21 are not competitive.
Governing: State and local government news and analysis
Why don't more governors seek federal office?
It's been three years since a governor has been mired in scandal. Here are a few possible reasons for the political calm.
Using a specific set of criteria, we've come up with a list of up-and-coming state officials from multiple fields. This week, we look at the Republican field.
Some states are considering a change in how they allocate their electoral votes, but the change may not be good for governance.
Using a specific set of criteria, we've come up with a list of up-and-coming state officials from multiple fields. This week, we look at the Democratic field.
The trend suggests fiercely partisan legislatures, but the reality may be more nuanced.
These 22 governors appear to be in good shape to be reelected in 2014. How did they manage it?
In this installment, Louis Jacobson looks at the 10 governors on the hot seat. Plus, why the GOP has the early edge in the balance of power.
The 2012 election may have just ended, but the contests for governorships are heating up. At least five governors have reason to worry.
The outcome of some ballot initiatives suggests what makes an issue campaign successful (or unsuccessful) even in the unlikeliest of places.
We told you what we thought would happen, so let's see how we did.
Less than half the votes have been counted, but both Democratic candidates in Montana and Washington state are leading.
Both parties have chalked up wins at the state legislative level, but the Democrats could have a modest advantage.
Conservatives fail to oust incumbents in Florida and Iowa, but the GOP is strong in Michigan and North Carolina.
See how measures on same-sex marriage, marijuana, immigration, abortion and so much more did on Election Night. For full coverage and analysis, visit Governing's Election Center.
In most of the contests, the party in power is on its way out -- though that doesn't mean the national balance of power is flipping.
With two contests yet to be called, Republicans can celebrate a one-seat gain in North Carolina.
We've rounded up all our ratings and rankings for the Electoral College, governors' races, control of the state legislatures and state attorney general contests.
With Election Day looming, a few races go down to the wire. For full election coverage and analysis, go to Governing's Election Center.
Will the 2012 elections lead to big power changes in the state legislatures?
If current trends hold, the Democrats could net one AG seat this year, which would be a small improvement from the 2010 elections.
Here's a rundown of the key ballot initiatives in the 37 states holding elections this November.
Could the recent upswing in Obama's poll numbers get him the 270 votes he needs to win re-election?
With 10 offices up for election or reappointment, Governing handicaps the races this fall.
Governing caught up with the chairman of the Democratic Governors Association at last week's convention in Charlotte, N.C.
Governing sat down with two of the Democratic Legislative Campaign Committee's leaders at the DNC last week.
If our ratings prove correct, Democrats will be far behind the GOP in overall control of chambers on Election Night.
The national spotlight has been known to burn some politicians back home.
With less than four months to go, the 2012 gubernatorial contests are looking good for the GOP.
While health care remains a contentious issue in most state legislatures, the Democratic-controlled Bay State is hard at work on its next phase of reform.
How governors have learned to work with Legislatures controlled by the other party.
The brash New Jersey governor has found success working with a Democratic Legislature, but will his national role as a Republican superstar get in the way of his agenda?
Be it resentment toward the big city or the liberal-leaning urban electorate, mayors can't always connect with voters statewide. Just ask Tom Barrett.
Term limits and redistricting could result in high turnover in 2013.
A number of political observers, including Governing's Louis Jacobson, have updated their electoral college breakdown predictions. Here is a list of recent breakdowns.
Quite a few governors end up as president. So what skills and experience could a state executive bring to the White House?
Governing: State and local government news and analysis
Being a businessperson offers strengths and drawbacks for political life.
Governing: State and local government news and analysis
It's been a year since the governors of the class of 2010 began their tenures. In their first year of office, three Republicans and three Democrats are doing very well.
Just two months after the 2011 gubernatorial contests, things are starting to shape up for 2012's candidates.
Incumbent governors rarely lose reelection. But there are a few factors that could put a state executive at risk.
The 50 state legislatures have a lot of talent, but these 12 individuals are ones to watch.
A year later, Lou Jacobson takes another look at how the 2012 Electoral College votes would divide up depending on if Mitt Romney is not the GOP nominee for president.
A year later, Lou Jacobson takes another look at how the 2012 Electoral College votes would divide up if Mitt Romney is the GOP nominee for president.
New York Gov. Andrew Cuomo has been credited with healing the once-dysfunctional Legislature.
Governing: State and local government news and analysis
Experts are divided on what affect the outcome will have on the 2012 elections.
Keep an eye on upcoming secretary of state races to gauge the future of voter ID and same-day registration laws -- and find political up and comers.
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The outlook for upcoming state attorney general races has changed only slightly. Out of six competitive races, Democrats will have to protect four seats versus the Republicans' two.
Governing: State and local government news and analysis
Closely divided chambers, new redistricting processes and court battles could make 2012’s new maps more important in some states than others.
In just a few months, Connecticut Gov. Dan Malloy is implementing measures that many state legislators would have balked at.
Losing an election can teach candidates valuable campaign lessons that could help them win statewide office later on.
A very blue state approves a law similar to some the national Democratic Party is criticizing.
Just seven months after a painful 2010 midterm election, things are looking a little better for Democrats
Readers recommended their own up-and-coming state legislators in this third legislators-to-watch list.
Do tied chambers complicate or facilitate getting legislative business done?
Governing: State and local government news and analysis
By consulting with a network of national and state sources, we've come up with a list of up-and-coming state legislators. Here's a look at the Democratic field.
Governing: State and local government news and analysis
By consulting with a network of national and state sources, we've come up with a list of up-and-coming state legislators. This week, we look at the GOP field.
Such partisan domination can cause concern for the future of the minority party.
While Republicans cruised to victory in both 1994 and 2010, the class of freshman governors elected in 2010 has proven to be strikingly different, at least for now.
Advocates of smaller government might have an opportunity to reduce the number of seats in state legislatures, but such proposals face a challenging path to enactment.
Former Indiana Sen. Evan Bayh’s retirement kicked off a number of GOP pickups and a longing for a new Democratic figurehead.
Colorado's Republican Party Chairman Dick Wadhams decided to not run for a third term, crystallizing cleavages in state GOPs that could risk their majority party status.
In the contest to win the 2012 presidential election, each party will have to win the hearts of 10 states.
A majority of the 13 contests to be held over the next two years look competitive.
A sneak peek at the 2011 and 2012 gubernatorial campaign landscape.
With just under a year to go, nine seats -- all held by Democratic governors -- could go to Republicans.
If a presidential election results in a tie in the electoral college, the election is then thrown into a GOP-controlled House.
The GOP is near a high-water mark for legislative seats that dates back to 1928.
With this analysis, most of the races stay as is, but two contests shift a notch toward the Republican candidate and one moves from lean Republican to tossup.
While local factors have played a role in certain cases, the major reason for the continuing shift to the Republicans has been the national GOP wave. Be sure to check www.governing.com/politics for live election coverage.
PolitiFact's Louis Jacobson ranks the governor's races, and predicts a strong election night could leave the GOP with better than two-thirds of the governor's seats.
Using a quantitative model, a professor predicts which party will have a greater influence on state legislative redistricting than ever before.
If the Republican wave is realized this Election Day then the gubernatorial picture will be grim indeed for the Democrats.
A lower Latino vote would signal trouble for the Democratic Party in November. So far, there are few signs of the confidence and hope that prevailed at the polls in the high-turnout year of 2008.
Since our last rating in August, four more state attorney general contests are favoring Republicans.
Democrats are poised to lose a slew of state legislative chambers and attorney general offices.
The Democratic peril is especially high this year because it's a midterm election, and some of the biggest landslides for the legislatures have come during midterm elections.
A potent force in local and national politics, no less than 30 state attorney general offices are being contested this fall.
How will November 2 change your state's legislature? PolitiFact's Louis Jacobson is assessing and rating the political climates surrounding the 50 statehouses in this interactive feature.