7 States Where Demographics Haven't Determined Their Political Destiny -- Yet
From weak state parties to regional differences, we look at why these states are defying demographics.
Authors
Louis Jacobson is the senior correspondent at the fact-checking website PolitiFact. He is also senior author of the 2016 and 2018 editions of the Almanac of American Politics and was a contributing writer for the 2000 and 2004 editions. For Governing, Jacobson has written a column on state politics since the 2010 election cycle, including handicapping gubernatorial, state legislative and state attorney general races. Before that, he wrote a similar column for Stateline.org and Roll Call. He has also handicapped state and federal races for such publications as the Cook Political Report, the Rothenberg Political Report, PoliticsPA.com and the Tampa Bay Times. Earlier in his career, Jacobson served as deputy editor of the congressional newspaper Roll Call, as the founding editor of its affiliate, CongressNow, and as a staff correspondent at National Journal. In 2014, he received the Weidenbaum Center Award for Evidence-Based Journalism from Washington University in St. Louis, and in 2017, the Society of American Business Editors and Writers gave him a Best in Business award for his economics coverage.
6 Months In, Most Rookie Governors Are Thriving
Following years of turmoil and gridlock in many states, newly elected governors are getting a lot done.
July 23, 2019
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2018's Education Upheaval Doesn't Translate to Superintendent Elections
Despite all the teacher strikes and walkouts, voters largely stuck to partisan lines at the ballot box.
November 8, 2018
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Liberals Prevail in State Supreme Court Elections
Moderate-to liberal candidates won in five states, while conservatives were successful in two.
November 8, 2018
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Democrats Pick Up 7 Legislative Chambers
Their victories mirrored their numerical gains in the governors' races.
November 7, 2018
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Democrats Pick Up 4 Seats So Far in AG Races
If they ultimately flip the four seats where they have the lead, the party would take the majority of attorney general seats nationwide.
November 7, 2018
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Democrats Make Gains in Secretary of State Races
They flipped at least three seats.
November 7, 2018
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In Governor Races, Democrats Flip 7 Seats
In Georgia, Democrat Stacey Abrams refuses to concede.
November 7, 2018
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Heading Into Election Day, Governors' Races Tighten
The likely outcome of six races has changed in the last couple weeks, with three becoming tossups. But one thing is still clear: Democrats are set to gain ground.
November 5, 2018
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States’ Supreme Court Elections Struggle for Attention
Eight states have competitive elections next week whose outcomes could influence a number of policies. But these down-ballot races are largely overshadowed.
November 1, 2018
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AG Races Shift in Democrats’ Favor
The GOP is at risk of losing nine seats, while Democrats could lose three. If there's a big Democratic wave, Republicans could lose their majority.
October 26, 2018
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Democratic Governors Now Have a Chance to Become the Majority
The party's outlook has improved since last month. It's likely to gain between three and 10 seats in November.
October 22, 2018
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In Year of Strikes, Education Plays a Big Role in Elections
Education has emerged as an issue this fall beyond school board and superintendent races.
October 17, 2018
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Democrats Maintain the Edge in Secretary of State Races
Since June, six races have shifted in the party's favor.
October 12, 2018
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A Month Before Election Day, Democrats Poised for Legislative Gains
While they likely won't win a majority nationwide, the party is poised to gain control of some chambers. How many depends on the size of the potential blue wave.
October 8, 2018
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Where Independents Could Shake Up Races for Governor
In seven states, third-party candidates could sway the outcome in November.
October 3, 2018
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With Primary Season Over, Democrats Poised to Gain 3 to 7 Governors’ Seats
Just over half of the 36 gubernatorial races are competitive.
September 14, 2018
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Could the 2018 Midterms Be the Year of the Young?
In governors' races, many of the challengers are decades younger than their state's current leader. And young voters may be more mobilized.
August 21, 2018
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How Trump’s Trade Policies Could Impact Governors’ Races
There are early, but scattered, signs that Democrats will use new tariffs as a wedge issue.
August 6, 2018
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More Mayors Are Running for Governor
It was unusual 10 years ago. But that's changing.
July 25, 2018
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As November Nears, More Governors’ Races Become Tossups
They have become more competitive in three states -- all where Republicans are currently in power.
July 16, 2018
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For Lieutenant Governors, Midterms Look Predictable
In the 10 states holding races, only one looks competitive.
July 13, 2018
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A History of Accidental Governors
When governors resign because of scandals or promotions, do their replacements run for a term of their own? And if they do, are they successful? A larger-than-normal number of replacement governors is on the campaign trail this year.
June 26, 2018
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2018 Attorneys General Races: Who's Vulnerable?
For now, it's the Republicans. Seven GOP-held AG seats, compared to three for the Democrats, are being hotly contested.
June 21, 2018
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Secretary of State Races Are More Competitive and Important Than Ever
Voter ID battles and cybersecurity concerns have intensified and elevated these races. Republicans have more seats -- and the most to lose.
June 4, 2018
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Could U.S. Senate Races Impact Gubernatorial Races?
History suggests that the answer is yes -- but 2018 is a unique year.
May 16, 2018
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Democrats Poised to Eat Into GOP's Lead in State Legislatures
Republicans can take some comfort that their state legislative dominance is unlikely to evaporate in a single election cycle.
May 2, 2018
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Judges Face Growing Threats From Unhappy Politicians
While they're rarely successful, efforts to remove state Supreme Court justices over policy disagreements are becoming more common.
April 16, 2018
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Can Democrats Flip Crucial Governors' Seats?
In the 36 gubernatorial races this fall, all but 10 of the states are currently led by Republicans.
March 30, 2018
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Cursed or Blessed? A History of Third-Term Governors
Most states limit governors to two terms, but not New York and Wisconsin, where Andrew Cuomo and Scott Walker are both seeking reelection this year.
February 28, 2018
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How Might a 2018 Democratic Wave Affect Governor's Races?
Waves usually just influence congressional seats. But a look at past wave elections tells a different story.
February 14, 2018
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Republicans on the Hot Seat in AG Races
Key GOP-held attorneys general seats are becoming more competitive, paving the way for Democrats to possibly flip their balance in the states.
February 2, 2018
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The 6 Most Dysfunctional States Then and Now
In 2009, Louis Jacobson ranked the states with the worst leadership and policy challenges. Almost a decade later, what's changed?
January 18, 2018
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Redistricting Cases Could Redefine State and U.S. Politics in 2018
More than a dozen cases on partisan and racial gerrymandering are winding their way through the court system. Two cases, in particular, could become two of the most important this decade.
January 4, 2018
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The Steep Climb From Governor to U.S. Senator
Phil Bredesen joins a group of 16 former governors who have run since 2000. Their campaigns -- failed or otherwise -- offer insight into his chances in 2018.
January 2, 2018
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Meet the Moderates
These politicians and candidates are breaking with today's aggressively partisan times to advocate a more centrist line.
December 4, 2017
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Whatever Happened to Local Polling?
There are fewer organizations gauging how citizens feel about their governors. Political experts say it's a problem.
November 2, 2017
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Since Trump Took Office, State Democrats' Chances Have Improved for 2018
The GOP holds the majority of governorships, but the number of those vulnerable next year has doubled.
October 27, 2017
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Think Automatic Voter Registration Just Benefits Democrats? Not Necessarily.
As the practice spreads to more states, Census data suggest it could benefit both parties.
October 5, 2017
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The Key to Winning Down-Ballot Races
A hint: In states, it all starts with the top of the ticket.
September 20, 2017
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Without Obama to Sue, What Are Republican AGs Up To?
While Democratic AGs go on the offensive, their Republican counterparts are urging Trump to get even tougher against Obama-era policies.
August 28, 2017
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These Governors Are Rich, But Are They Effective?
The wealthy are increasingly seeking their state's highest office. Winning has been the easy part.
August 18, 2017
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6 Months In, How Are Rookie Governors Doing?
In this year's class, even the weakest-performing governors are surviving.
July 28, 2017
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Looking Back at Trump's Win in Raw Numbers
The president's victory has been extensively explored. But a state- and county-level look at the data offers stunning evidence of just how large the shifts were in certain places.
July 20, 2017
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2017-2018 Governors' Races: Where Power Is Most and Least Likely to Flip
With elections in dozens of states, the leading parties have reason to worry in almost half of them.
January 5, 2017
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Election Predictions: How Wrong (or Right) Were We?
We rated races for president, governor, state legislature and attorney general.
November 11, 2016
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States' Supreme Court Election Results a Mixed Bag
Judicial elections weren't a clear sweep for either party.
November 9, 2016
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GOP Picks Up Significant Control in State School Offices
It was a lesser-noticed but important downballot trend from election night.
November 9, 2016
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Republican Sweep Extends to Secretaries of State
The GOP picked up four seats.
November 9, 2016
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Lieutenant Governor Races Offer Bright Spot for Democrats
Democrats managed to flip the Vermont LG seat blue -- even as the state governorship flipped red.
November 9, 2016
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GOP Gains Ground (Narrowly) in State AG Races
Most races for states' attorneys general maintained the status quo, but one seat switched to Republican control.
November 9, 2016
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Republicans Make Gains in Governors' Races
With one election likely headed for a recount, Democrats have lost power in three states, including traditionally blue Vermont.
November 9, 2016
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Ratings Roundup: 2016 Statewide Elections
Our final pre-election predictions for the Electoral College, gubernatorial, attorney general and legislative races.
November 7, 2016
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Judicial Races On Track to Break Spending Records
The 2015-2016 state supreme court election cycle has attracted big money from outside groups.
November 3, 2016
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A Final Recap of This Year's Races for Lieutenant Governor
Unlike the gubernatorial races, Republicans are the ones playing defense.
November 2, 2016
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Half of 2016 Races for Governor Too Close to Call
Democrats are looking to narrow the GOP’s historically large hold on gubernatorial seats. Here's our state-by-state analysis of each election.
October 27, 2016
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Clinton Takes a Commanding Lead
In less than a month, our Electoral College handicapping went from indicating a narrowing presidential contest to one that is widening.
October 20, 2016
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November Likely to Lessen GOP's Advantage in Legislatures
According to our state-by-state projections, Democrats have their best chance since 2010 to take back control of some chambers.
October 12, 2016
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Trump Gains Ground in Electoral College
Our latest handicapping shows four states will likely determine which candidate wins.
October 5, 2016
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Predictions for November's Attorney General Races
Four contests are competitive, giving Republicans a chance to flip three seats.
September 28, 2016
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50 Battleground Counties to Watch
These are the districts in each competitive state that could decide November's presidential election.
September 21, 2016
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How Free Trade Became a Political Liability
It's hard to find candidates of any party this year openly supporting free trade -- even if they've touted its benefits in the past.
September 12, 2016
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The Best of Times, the Worst of Times: A Ranking of State Economies
Few of the best- and worst-performing states were in the same position just three years ago.
August 22, 2016
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With or Without Swing States, Clinton Can Beat Trump
The latest state-by-state predictions show Hillary Clinton well-positioned to win in November.
August 18, 2016
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A Conversation With Jay Nixon on Ferguson, Trump and His Future
Missouri's soon-to-be former governor talks about his accomplishments and disappointments, party politics and what's next.
August 11, 2016
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How John Kasich Made History in 2016
He escaped the curse of sitting governors who lose a presidential bid. Will he ride his statewide success into a national campaign again in 2020?
July 20, 2016
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The Rise and Simultaneous Fall of Straight-Ticket Voting
Where it exists, it remains popular. But five states have axed it since 2011, and there's a federal push to abolish the option to vote for one party across the ballot.
July 14, 2016
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Handicapping the 2016 Governors Races
In a year of political upheaval, the gubernatorial elections stand out for how little has changed.
July 7, 2016
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The States Where Voting Laws May Affect Election Results
In some close races, early voting cutbacks and photo ID requirements could impact the outcome.
June 21, 2016
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School Funding, Common Core and 2016 Superintendent Races
Funding has replaced Common Core as the major education issue in most state contests.
June 13, 2016
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Handicapping the 2016 State Legislative Races
Near rock bottom in state chambers, Democrats are hoping to capitalize on a presidential year.
May 19, 2016
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A History of Insurgent Candidates' Impact on Down-Ballot Races
Top-of-the-ticket insurgents like Donald Trump and Bernie Sanders often show little interest in helping other like-minded candidates win lower offices.
May 13, 2016
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Democratic Secretaries of State Most At Risk in 2016 Races
Republicans currently dominate the office that holds significant power over elections.
April 27, 2016
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Scandals Involving Governors Continue to Ebb
The large gubernatorial class of 2010 has until recently been scandal-free.
April 18, 2016
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New Head of Governors Group Talks Future of States
In an interview, Scott Pattison of the National Governors Association says he wants to guide the group through a period of fierce partisanship.
March 28, 2016
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Against Trump, Clinton Could Win Easier Than Obama Did
Our latest Electoral College handicapping shows nearly a dozen states are increasingly leaning toward picking a Democrat to be the next president.
March 23, 2016
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4 States Have Competitive Attorney General Races in 2016
Republicans play offense in three states, while Democrats have a shot at flipping one seat.
March 14, 2016
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Where Have All the Democratic Ag Commissioners Gone?
At one time, the statewide office was mostly held by conservative Democrats. Now Republicans dominate.
February 26, 2016
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Will Online Polls Revolutionize Elections?
Most political polls are still conducted over the phone, but they're becoming more problematic and less accurate. That's why online polls have emerged.
February 1, 2016
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Rating the 2016 Governors’ Races
Eight of the 12 states with elections this year could soon have a new party in power.
January 25, 2016
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Rocky Roads Ahead for Governors With Failed Presidential Bids
Trying and failing to take the White House has historically spelled trouble for governors' future political careers. In 2016, however, there may be one exception.
January 4, 2016
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Q&A With Jack Markell, a Leader Among America's Governors
The Delaware governor, who has led the Democratic and National governors associations, talks about workforce development, the state of governors, the future of his party and more.
December 29, 2015
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Will There Be More Swing States in 2016?
At least seven states could vote either way in next year's presidential election, but that number may be even higher. If it is, Democrats should worry.
December 9, 2015
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Do Governors' Endorsements Matter in Presidential Races?
Over the past 30 years, there have only been a handful of elections where a governor made a difference in a caucus or primary outcome.
November 10, 2015
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Who Won? Who Lost? 2015 Statewide Race Results
Republicans took the night’s biggest prize, but Democrats also notched some victories.
November 4, 2015
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Election 2015: Rundown of the Races
From governors to treasurers, several states are voting on their leadership starting this weekend.
October 23, 2015
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Democrats on Defense in 2015-2016 AG Races
Already in the minority, Democratic attorneys general face upcoming elections in a tough mix of states. We break down the likely outcome of each.
October 21, 2015
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Most Rookie Governors Are Off to a Good Start
Almost a year into their new job, most have been largely successful. But some are struggling to lead.
October 8, 2015
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Obscure, Yet Powerful, Jobs in Government
The most powerful political offices can sometimes come from surprising and seemingly insignificant places.
September 30, 2015
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6 Governors Who Choose Pragmatism Over Ideology
In this era of partisan politics, some are bold enough to take a bipartisan path.
September 4, 2015
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Why Don’t More State Auditors Run for Higher Office?
The job prepares politicians for the next level. But not many use it as a stepping stone.
August 20, 2015
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2015-2016 Governors Races Give Democrats (a Little) Hope
A state-by-state breakdown of the 14 upcoming elections shows where Democrats can take a few seats from Republicans.
August 6, 2015
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Why Democratic Governors and Republican Mayors Have Become Rare
From the presidency down, each party is more likely to win elections at certain levels of government. Whether that’s good or bad depends on your political views.
July 16, 2015
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The GOP’s Hispanic Paradox
Republicans' anti-immigration rhetoric is turning off Hispanic voters, yet they're better than Democrats at finding Hispanic candidates to climb the political ladder.
May 12, 2015
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The Waning Power of Political Dynasties
Based on 2014 elections, dynastic branding doesn't mean as much as it used too.
April 21, 2015
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Working Around Polarization
National organizations that represent states and localities are finding ways to keep partisanship out of their ranks.
April 6, 2015
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The Red State That Likes Common Core
While many Republican states have made efforts to repeal the education standards, Wyoming appears happy to move forward. How has Common Core thrived in such a solidly GOP state?
March 25, 2015
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Bright Spots in the Sad State of Statehouse Reporting
The number of statehouse reporters has drastically declined, but journalists see reasons for optimism.
March 1, 2015
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Democrats Have More Seats to Defend in 2015-2016
Despite holding far fewer seats overall, the Democrats have more governorships to defend than the Republicans.
January 23, 2015
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The 8 States to Watch in 2016
In addition to being presidential battlegrounds, these states will host several other pivotal contests.
January 16, 2015
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10 Things I've Learned from Covering State Politics
After more than a decade writing about the states, Louis Jacobson reflects on what he has discovered.
January 5, 2015
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How Down-Ballot Democrats Can Win Back Seats
If history proves correct, then losing the presidency would help Democrats regain Congressional, gubernatorial and state legislative seats.
December 17, 2014
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The 2014 Election Handicapping: How We Did
Governing rated three types of contests during the 2014 campaign cycle: gubernatorial races, state attorney general races, and control of the state legislatures.
November 7, 2014
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What Happened in the 2014 State Judicial Races?
The results in several contested races could provide a small amount of solace to Democrats.
November 5, 2014
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What the 2014 Elections Mean for State Legislatures
The Republicans will end up increasing the number of state chambers they control by nine.
November 5, 2014
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Democrats Lose Several Downballot State Races
Republicans racked up victories in contests for lieutenant governor, secretary of state and school superintendent.
November 5, 2014
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Republicans Win Narrowly in State AG Contests
The party was able to flip open seats in Arkansas and Nevada and now leads Democrats in attorney general offices nationally.
November 5, 2014
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GOP Governors Take Democratic Strongholds
Republicans not only defended their most vulnerable governors, they flipped several blue states.
November 5, 2014
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The Can't Miss 2014 Downballot State Races
Though overshadowed by the gubernatorial and state legislative races, the contests for lieutenant governor, secretary of state and state school superintendent can be high-stakes battles.
November 3, 2014
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Ratings Roundup: 2014 Statewide Elections
Our final pre-election handicapping of the gubernatorial, attorney general and legislative contests.
October 30, 2014
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In 2014 Governors Races, Where’s the Tea Party?
Tea Party candidates infiltrated the U.S. Senate primaries this year, but the group failed to form any real challenges to Republican governors.
November 1, 2014
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Only a Few 2014 Legislative Races Are Competitive
The battle for control of state legislatures has gotten a little more competitive in recent months, with Democrats still playing defense.
October 22, 2014
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2014 Governors Races: The Year of the Tossup
Unlike four years ago, incumbent governors are most vulnerable this election cycle. We've rated every race.
October 21, 2014
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The Overlooked Races of the 2014 Elections
Recognizing the vast influence that judges can have on state policy, their races have received a lot of money this election year.
October 20, 2014
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Red or Blue, Politics Doesn't Predict Where Women Win
Why aren't there more female governors? A look at historical data sheds some light on women's campaigns for the top office.
October 9, 2014
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The Race for Attorney General Tightens Up in 9 States
With one month to go, the Democrats and Republicans are in a dead heat to win the most seats.
October 2, 2014
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Bye, Bye GOP Mayors?
Republican mayors are rare in America’s big cities today. The few surviving ones have tips for getting into and staying in office.
October 1, 2014
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2014 Governors Races: Where Democrats Have an Edge
The Democratic Party is likely to gain a few seats after the GOP's big gains in 2010.
September 10, 2014
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2014 Governors Races: Where Republicans Are Likely to Win
The GOP has more seats in jeopardy since the party's big gains in 2010.
September 10, 2014
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2014 Governors Races: The Tossups
The number of gubernatorial elections that are too close to call has nearly doubled over the past few months.
September 10, 2014
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5 Popular Ballot Themes This Election Year
While the final lineup of measures is still being sorted out, five broad themes are emerging.
September 1, 2014
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2014 Elections Where Third-Party Candidates Could Make a Big Difference
In at least five gubernatorial races this fall, the outcome may depend on how well a third-party candidate fares.
August 1, 2014
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A Rundown of the 2014 Lieutenant Governor Races
All eyes may be on the gubernatorial seats up for election this fall, but there are a handful of competitive LG contests in the works.
July 21, 2014
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How to Avoid Embarrassment and Win Statewide Office
Three candidates running for governor show it's possible to rebound from earlier disastrous campaigns.
July 3, 2014
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Can Governors Balance National Ambitions with Concerns Back Home?
Governors like Mitt Romney have typically lost popularity at home when they made a run for the presidency. Will the current governors being talked about as potential 2016 candidates suffer the same fate?
July 1, 2014
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Democrats Playing Defense in 2014 State Legislative Races
Democrats hold fewer chambers but have more at risk this year than Republicans. Here's a breakdown of what to expect in every state legislature's elections.
June 23, 2014
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A Guide to the 36 Governors’ Races
Which incumbent governors face a tough road ahead and which are expected to win re-election easily?
June 1, 2014
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Winners and Losers of the 2014 State Legislators to Watch
A surprising number of this year's rising stars are seeking higher office.
May 27, 2014
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Can the GOP Take Advantage of Obamacare Website Woes?
Several state-run insurance exchanges have verged on disastrous, but the states may be too blue to give Republican gubernatorial candidates much of a boost.
May 1, 2014
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Whatever Happened to Crossover Voting?
With increasing partisan polarization, there's little reason for a Democratic or Republican governor to head to the middle, putting governors with bipartisan appeal at risk of becoming extinct.
April 29, 2014
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Can This Year's U.S. Senate Races Impact the Gubernatorial Contests?
Senate races can have coattails for gubernatorial contests, but the impact is far from guaranteed.
April 23, 2014
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Secretary of State Seats Get Competitive
With voter ID laws a bone of contention, more attention and money is flowing to state secretary of state contests.
March 27, 2014
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The Long-Term Impact of Voting Law Changes
They may not have a big impact on elections this November, but that could change down the road.
March 25, 2014
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Will Voter ID Changes Affect the 2014 Elections?
The cumulative impact of voting-rule changes on the outcome of several key state races in November looks to be hit or miss.
March 20, 2014
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The 2014 Governors Races: Are the Democrats Fighting Back?
Republicans hold the lead in governorships, but Democrats may be making slight gains in this year's gubernatorial races.
March 11, 2014
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2014 Governors Races: A Look at the Too-Close-to-Call Contests
We examine the tossup gubernatorial races in the six states where votes will likely matter the most.
March 6, 2014
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2014 Governors Races: Are the Republicans Losing Ground?
As Texans head to the polls in the year's first primary today, we look at how the Republicans are faring in this year’s gubernatorial races.
March 4, 2014
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Washington is about as popular as snow in July in most of these cities.
Clarence Anthony, executive director of the National League of Cities, who says mayors have more influence with the public than the federal government.
February 11, 2014
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What Do Governors Get Out of Leading the DGA, NGA and RGA?
Increasingly, these associations are being used as proving grounds for governors that want to run for a national office.
February 10, 2014
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How Elections Will Affect State School Superintendent Seats in 2014
A look at several states where elections could change K-12 education policy.
January 21, 2014
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State School Superintendents and the Messy Business of Politics
How elections in 2014 could shape education policy in the states.
January 16, 2014
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12 State Legislators to Watch in 2014
It’s a tough time to be a politician, but these state lawmakers are really making a mark.
January 1, 2014
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2012 Legislators to Watch: Where Are They Now?
Since we last published a list of 12 state legislators to watch in January 2012, we’ve seen one legislator rocket to national stardom, two abruptly, and voluntarily, leave politics altogether and the rest continue to soldier on in the political trenches.
January 1, 2014
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What's Ahead for the Attorney General Races in 2014?
Here's the rankings for AG offices up for re-election in November.
December 19, 2013
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This Is the Future of Radio.
The FCC wants to modernize AM radio, which has lost listeners in recent years. Can it work?
December 1, 2013
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2013 Election: State and Local Race Results
An overview of what happened on Election Day 2013 in statewide, legislative and mayoral races.
November 6, 2013
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Can Adopting Ranked-Choice Voting Make Politics Civil?
Some think a new voting process could heal many of the nation's political system's ills.
November 4, 2013
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2013 State and Local Election Preview
A breakdown of some of the most important races and ballot initiatives to watch.
October 23, 2013
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What We Can Learn from New Hampshire Politics
The Granite State has a unique governmental structure that ultimately gives residents more power than state representatives.
October 3, 2013
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Connecticut's Economy Hurting Governor Malloy
Despite the governor's best efforts, the economy is struggling and so are his approval ratings.
September 11, 2013
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Good Economy, Popular Governor?
It's generally true that if things are good in state, than things are good for the governor. There are some exceptions, though.
September 9, 2013
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A Tale of Two Redistrictings
California and Pennsylvania offer a clear picture of the state of redistricting in the U.S.
August 21, 2013
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The Future of the GOP & Hispanic Voters Looks Grim
National Republicans aren't faring well among Hispanic voters. Are state GOP candidates doing any better?
August 19, 2013
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Handicapping the 2013-2014 Governors Races: The Democrats
Governing looks at the seats that are currently leaning Democratic.
July 16, 2013
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Handicapping the Governors Races: The GOP Edition
Now that Gov. Rick Perry isn't running for re-election, will Texas stay Republican? Which of the 38 gubernatorial contests are tilting Republican?
July 11, 2013
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Does Party Switching Help or Hurt Political Careers?
After Rhode Island Gov. Lincoln Chafee joined the Democratic Party in May -- his second switch in six years -- we looked back at how other politicians have fared since a switch.
June 14, 2013
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How Weak is the GOP in the Bluest States?
Just about as weak as Democrats are in the reddest states.
May 16, 2013
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Looking Back at Howard Dean's 50-State Strategy
Despite opposition from national Democrats, the former Vermont governor's bid to build up party infrastructure in every state was a success in the unlikeliest of places -- at least while it lasted.
May 6, 2013
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Are States Deepening the Nation's Red-Blue Divide?
Some Democratic and Republican states are pushing more ideological policies, but not all.
April 24, 2013
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How Successful Are Lieutenant Governors?
Not as successful at moving into the governor's seat as one might think, according to an analysis of data from the past quarter century.
April 12, 2013
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The 2013-2014 Attorneys General Races: Who's Vulnerable?
Last week, we revealed who wasn't in danger. Now find out which 10 AG seats are competitive.
March 25, 2013
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The 2013-2014 Attorneys General Races: Who's Not Vulnerable?
More than 30 attorneys general seats are up for election in 2013-2014. But a whooping 21 are not competitive.
March 21, 2013
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Governing: State and local government news and analysis
Where Have All the Governors Gone?
Why don't more governors seek federal office?
March 4, 2013
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Are We Ready for Another Gubernatorial Scandal?
It's been three years since a governor has been mired in scandal. Here are a few possible reasons for the political calm.
February 22, 2013
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State Republican Officials to Watch in 2013
Using a specific set of criteria, we've come up with a list of up-and-coming state officials from multiple fields. This week, we look at the Republican field.
February 6, 2013
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The Ramifications of Changing the Electoral College
Some states are considering a change in how they allocate their electoral votes, but the change may not be good for governance.
January 31, 2013
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State Democratic Officials to Watch in 2013
Using a specific set of criteria, we've come up with a list of up-and-coming state officials from multiple fields. This week, we look at the Democratic field.
January 25, 2013
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The Year of Single Party Control and Supermajorities
The trend suggests fiercely partisan legislatures, but the reality may be more nuanced.
January 7, 2013
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2013-2014 Governor's Races: Who's Not Vulnerable?
These 22 governors appear to be in good shape to be reelected in 2014. How did they manage it?
December 13, 2012
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2013-2014 Governor's Races: Who's Potentially Vulnerable?
In this installment, Louis Jacobson looks at the 10 governors on the hot seat. Plus, why the GOP has the early edge in the balance of power.
December 12, 2012
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2013-2014 Governor's Races: Who's Vulnerable?
The 2012 election may have just ended, but the contests for governorships are heating up. At least five governors have reason to worry.
December 11, 2012
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Surprising Results from the 2012 Election
The outcome of some ballot initiatives suggests what makes an issue campaign successful (or unsuccessful) even in the unlikeliest of places.
December 3, 2012
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Post-2012 Election Ratings Recap
We told you what we thought would happen, so let's see how we did.
November 8, 2012
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Democratic State Legislatures Ride Obama's Coattails
Both parties have chalked up wins at the state legislative level, but the Democrats could have a modest advantage.
November 7, 2012
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Late Calls in Gubernatorial Races Going Democrats' Way
Less than half the votes have been counted, but both Democratic candidates in Montana and Washington state are leading.
November 7, 2012
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For Conservatives, Split Decision on State Judicial Races
Conservatives fail to oust incumbents in Florida and Iowa, but the GOP is strong in Michigan and North Carolina.
November 7, 2012
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A Results Roundup of the 2012 Ballot Measures
See how measures on same-sex marriage, marijuana, immigration, abortion and so much more did on Election Night. For full coverage and analysis, visit Governing's Election Center.
November 7, 2012
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A Rough Night for Incumbent State Attorneys General
In most of the contests, the party in power is on its way out -- though that doesn't mean the national balance of power is flipping.
November 7, 2012
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A GOP Bright Spot in the 2012 Governors' Races
With two contests yet to be called, Republicans can celebrate a one-seat gain in North Carolina.
November 7, 2012
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Pre-Election Ratings-Palooza
We've rounded up all our ratings and rankings for the Electoral College, governors' races, control of the state legislatures and state attorney general contests.
November 1, 2012
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The Final Handicapping of the 2012 Governors’ Races
With Election Day looming, a few races go down to the wire. For full election coverage and analysis, go to Governing's Election Center.
October 29, 2012
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The Latest Chamber-by-Chamber Analysis of the 2012 State Legislative Elections
Will the 2012 elections lead to big power changes in the state legislatures?
October 24, 2012
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Attorney General Races: Democrats' Odds Improving
If current trends hold, the Democrats could net one AG seat this year, which would be a small improvement from the 2010 elections.
October 12, 2012
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Same-Sex Marriage, Marijuana Head 2012 Ballot List
Here's a rundown of the key ballot initiatives in the 37 states holding elections this November.
October 3, 2012
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The Latest 2012 Presidential Electoral Vote Breakdown
Could the recent upswing in Obama's poll numbers get him the 270 votes he needs to win re-election?
September 25, 2012
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Secretaries of State Still Juggling Politics, Elections
With 10 offices up for election or reappointment, Governing handicaps the races this fall.
September 21, 2012
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A Conversation with Maryland Gov. Martin O'Malley
Governing caught up with the chairman of the Democratic Governors Association at last week's convention in Charlotte, N.C.
September 13, 2012
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DLCC Officials Optimistic on State Legislative Races
Governing sat down with two of the Democratic Legislative Campaign Committee's leaders at the DNC last week.
September 12, 2012
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Election 2012: State Legislature Predictions
If our ratings prove correct, Democrats will be far behind the GOP in overall control of chambers on Election Night.
August 22, 2012
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Election 2012: State Legislature Predictions
If our ratings prove correct, Democrats will be far behind the GOP in overall control of chambers on Election Night.
August 22, 2012
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Are Governors Who Run for Higher Office on Thin Ice?
The national spotlight has been known to burn some politicians back home.
August 2, 2012
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An Update to 2012 Governors' Races
With less than four months to go, the 2012 gubernatorial contests are looking good for the GOP.
July 24, 2012
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Massachusetts Tackles Health-Care Reform (Again)
While health care remains a contentious issue in most state legislatures, the Democratic-controlled Bay State is hard at work on its next phase of reform.
July 12, 2012
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The Two Sides of Chris Christie
The brash New Jersey governor has found success working with a Democratic Legislature, but will his national role as a Republican superstar get in the way of his agenda?
June 19, 2012
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Power Struggle: Governors and the Legislatures
How governors have learned to work with Legislatures controlled by the other party.
June 19, 2012
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The Gubernatorial Hurdle: Why Mayors Struggle to Win Statewide
Be it resentment toward the big city or the liberal-leaning urban electorate, mayors can't always connect with voters statewide. Just ask Tom Barrett.
June 8, 2012
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State Legislatures May Experience a Mass Exodus
Term limits and redistricting could result in high turnover in 2013.
May 25, 2012
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2012 Electoral College Predictions From Around the Web
A number of political observers, including Governing's Louis Jacobson, have updated their electoral college breakdown predictions. Here is a list of recent breakdowns.
April 16, 2012
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Governors in the White House: How Well Do They Do as President?
Quite a few governors end up as president. So what skills and experience could a state executive bring to the White House?
April 13, 2012
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Governing: State and local government news and analysis
How Do Business Execs Do as Candidates and as Governors?
Being a businessperson offers strengths and drawbacks for political life.
March 23, 2012
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Governing: State and local government news and analysis
Rookie Governors: Who's Doing Very Well?
It's been a year since the governors of the class of 2010 began their tenures. In their first year of office, three Republicans and three Democrats are doing very well.
February 10, 2012
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Previewing the 2012 Governors' Races
Just two months after the 2011 gubernatorial contests, things are starting to shape up for 2012's candidates.
January 18, 2012
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What It Takes for a Governor to Lose Reelection
Incumbent governors rarely lose reelection. But there are a few factors that could put a state executive at risk.
January 5, 2012
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12 State Legislators to Watch in 2012
The 50 state legislatures have a lot of talent, but these 12 individuals are ones to watch.
December 29, 2011
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2012 Electoral Map Breakdown: If Gingrich Is the Republican Nominee
A year later, Lou Jacobson takes another look at how the 2012 Electoral College votes would divide up depending on if Mitt Romney is not the GOP nominee for president.
December 8, 2011
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If Romney Is the One: 2012 Electoral Map Breakdown
A year later, Lou Jacobson takes another look at how the 2012 Electoral College votes would divide up if Mitt Romney is the GOP nominee for president.
December 6, 2011
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The Halls are Humming Again in Albany
New York Gov. Andrew Cuomo has been credited with healing the once-dysfunctional Legislature.
November 30, 2011
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Governing: State and local government news and analysis
What Does No on Ohio's Issue 2 Mean for Future Elections?
Experts are divided on what affect the outcome will have on the 2012 elections.
November 9, 2011
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Electoral Regulations at Stake in 13 Sec. of State Races
Keep an eye on upcoming secretary of state races to gauge the future of voter ID and same-day registration laws -- and find political up and comers.
September 28, 2011
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Democrats Remain on Defensive for AG Spots in 2011-2012
The outlook for upcoming state attorney general races has changed only slightly. Out of six competitive races, Democrats will have to protect four seats versus the Republicans' two.
September 21, 2011
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Governing: State and local government news and analysis
Redistricting’s Impact on State Legislatures in 2012
Closely divided chambers, new redistricting processes and court battles could make 2012’s new maps more important in some states than others.
September 14, 2011
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A Democratic Governor Gets His Way
In just a few months, Connecticut Gov. Dan Malloy is implementing measures that many state legislators would have balked at.
August 30, 2011
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How Losing Leads to Winning
Losing an election can teach candidates valuable campaign lessons that could help them win statewide office later on.
August 25, 2011
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Rhode Island's Voter ID Law: Oddity or Game Changer?
A very blue state approves a law similar to some the national Democratic Party is criticizing.
July 28, 2011
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An Update on the 2011-2012 Gubernatorial Contests
Just seven months after a painful 2010 midterm election, things are looking a little better for Democrats
July 25, 2011
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Reader-Recommended State Legislators to Watch
Readers recommended their own up-and-coming state legislators in this third legislators-to-watch list.
July 19, 2011
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How Tied Chambers Affect States
Do tied chambers complicate or facilitate getting legislative business done?
June 9, 2011
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Governing: State and local government news and analysis
Democratic Legislators to Watch
By consulting with a network of national and state sources, we've come up with a list of up-and-coming state legislators. Here's a look at the Democratic field.
June 1, 2011
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Governing: State and local government news and analysis
GOP Legislators to Watch
By consulting with a network of national and state sources, we've come up with a list of up-and-coming state legislators. This week, we look at the GOP field.
May 24, 2011
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One Party Dominates the Top Five Offices in 29 States
Such partisan domination can cause concern for the future of the minority party.
April 19, 2011
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How 2010 Is, and Isn’t, Like 1994
While Republicans cruised to victory in both 1994 and 2010, the class of freshman governors elected in 2010 has proven to be strikingly different, at least for now.
March 24, 2011
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Shrinking the Size of State Legislatures
Advocates of smaller government might have an opportunity to reduce the number of seats in state legislatures, but such proposals face a challenging path to enactment.
March 9, 2011
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For Want of a Bayh in Indiana
Former Indiana Sen. Evan Bayh’s retirement kicked off a number of GOP pickups and a longing for a new Democratic figurehead.
February 17, 2011
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State Political Parties Stand the Risk of Losing Major Party Status in Future Elections
Colorado's Republican Party Chairman Dick Wadhams decided to not run for a third term, crystallizing cleavages in state GOPs that could risk their majority party status.
February 9, 2011
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The Congressional Map Glows Red
A review of the 2010 census findings and its implications.
February 1, 2011
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The January Presidential Electoral Vote Breakdown
In the contest to win the 2012 presidential election, each party will have to win the hearts of 10 states.
January 12, 2011
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2011-2012: State Attorneys General Outlook
A majority of the 13 contests to be held over the next two years look competitive.
January 6, 2011
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An Early Look at the Governors
A sneak peek at the 2011 and 2012 gubernatorial campaign landscape.
January 1, 2011
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Looking Ahead: The 2011-2012 Gubernatorial Landscape
With just under a year to go, nine seats -- all held by Democratic governors -- could go to Republicans.
December 2, 2010
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Republicans Flip the 'Electoral Backstop'
If a presidential election results in a tie in the electoral college, the election is then thrown into a GOP-controlled House.
November 9, 2010
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2010 State Legislatures: GOP Chalks Up Historic Gains
The GOP is near a high-water mark for legislative seats that dates back to 1928.
November 3, 2010
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2010 State Legislatures: An Unprecedented GOP Lean
While local factors have played a role in certain cases, the major reason for the continuing shift to the Republicans has been the national GOP wave. Be sure to check www.governing.com/politics for live election coverage.
November 1, 2010
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Updated: 2010 State Attorneys General: GOP Moves A Notch Closer
With this analysis, most of the races stay as is, but two contests shift a notch toward the Republican candidate and one moves from lean Republican to tossup.
November 1, 2010
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Updated: 2010 State Elections: A Republican Gubernatorial Majority?
PolitiFact's Louis Jacobson ranks the governor's races, and predicts a strong election night could leave the GOP with better than two-thirds of the governor's seats.
November 1, 2010
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Forecasting the Redistricting Fight
Using a quantitative model, a professor predicts which party will have a greater influence on state legislative redistricting than ever before.
October 22, 2010
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2010 State Elections: Ranking the Governors
If the Republican wave is realized this Election Day then the gubernatorial picture will be grim indeed for the Democrats.
October 18, 2010
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Democrats Struggle to Generate Hispanic Participation
A lower Latino vote would signal trouble for the Democratic Party in November. So far, there are few signs of the confidence and hope that prevailed at the polls in the high-turnout year of 2008.
October 14, 2010
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2010 State Attorney General Elections: Shift in GOP Direction Continues
Since our last rating in August, four more state attorney general contests are favoring Republicans.
October 12, 2010
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Democrats May Lose Control in 2010 State Elections
Democrats are poised to lose a slew of state legislative chambers and attorney general offices.
October 1, 2010
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2010 State Legislatures: Forecast Worsens for Democrats
The Democratic peril is especially high this year because it's a midterm election, and some of the biggest landslides for the legislatures have come during midterm elections.
September 29, 2010
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Update: 2010 State Legislatures
How will November 2 change your state's legislature? PolitiFact's Louis Jacobson is assessing and rating the political climates surrounding the 50 statehouses in this interactive feature.
November 1, 2010
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2010 Election: State Attorneys General Battle for Control
A potent force in local and national politics, no less than 30 state attorney general offices are being contested this fall.
August 30, 2010
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