Are Governors Immune to Second-Term Slumps?
I ran into Tom Cronin, the political scientist, the other day, and he raised a really interesting question that I couldn't answer. The question was ...
I ran into Tom Cronin, the political scientist, the other day, and he raised a really interesting question that I couldn't answer. The question was this: Given that presidents almost always run into horrible political problems at the beginning of their second terms (the way Bush has), why don't governors get into similar trouble? Or do they and we just don't notice?
The point about presidents is pretty hard to dispute. Cronin thinks the last reasonably successful repeat term for a president was Franklin Roosevelt's third--which I don't count because his second term was pretty lousy. You could argue that Woodrow Wilson had a decent second term, helping to win the First World War, but then he was humiliated on the League of Nations and ended his presidency pretty much in disgrace. Theodore Roosevelt was the only indisputably successful second-term president in the last century, and even he takes an asterisk because he was only elected once--his first term was a partial one forced by an assassination.
Anyway, enough about presidents. What's the story on governors? My not-too-carefully thought out instinct is that the strong governors of the last decade, at least, have tended to do as well or better in second terms than first ones. Parris Glendening got off to a terrible start in Maryland, then came around quite impressively later. Tommy Thompson in Wisconsin and John Engler in Michigan seemed to function at a pretty even level of effectiveness through careers that went into second terms and beyond. Of course, there's the fiasco of Bob Taft in Ohio, but that looks like an aberration. By and large, I think Cronin is right that the "second-term slump" common to virtually all presidents isn't much of a problem for capable governors.
Anybody have an idea why this might be the case?
Join the Discussion
After you comment, click Post. You can enter an anonymous Display Name or connect to a social profile.
Kasich Keeps Going Even After Cruz Concedes to Trump5 hours ago
Alabama’s One-Man Pension Show4 hours ago
UnitedHealthcare's Exit Leaves Monopolies in Many Places14 hours ago
Clinton Fundraising Leaves Little for State Parties15 hours ago
Feds: Thousands Wrongly Placed in South Dakota Nursing Homes15 hours ago
Another Health Insurer Abandons Alaska16 hours ago