Josh Goodman is a former staff writer for GOVERNING..
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Tarheel Tossup
Four new polls in the North Carolina governor's race tell two different stories.
Two of the polls show Democrat Bev Perdue leading by a single point. Two show Republican Pat McCrory ahead by five points and by eight points.
What's interesting is that the pollsters don't just diverge on the Perdue-McCrory race. The two that showed McCrory ahead also found Republican U.S. Senator Elizabeth Dole with a lead. They gave John McCain whopping advantages of 17 and 20 percentage points.
But the two polls that had Perdue ahead placed Obama's deficit at only three points and four points (far better than the Kerry-Edwards ticket in 2004). Only one of those polls looked at the Senate race, but it showed the Democrat, Kay Hagen, ahead by a point.
In other words, it's either going to be great night for Republicans in North Carolina or a great night for Democrats -- although I wouldn't rule out the possibility that something in between happens.
With all this uncertainty, I'm shifting my rating for the North Carolina's governors race from "leans Democratic" to tossup.
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