For all the suspense the campaigns have pumped into their VP selections, decision markets are starting to coalesce around Joe Biden and Mitt Romney. In ...
For all the suspense the campaigns have pumped into their VP selections, decision markets are starting to coalesce around Joe Biden and Mitt Romney. In the last 24 hours, both have nudged about 50 on Intrade, meaning traders think it is more likely than not that these two guys will be The Guy, despite what they say.
Of course, the markets could be way off--they are known to get volatile just before the decisive moment. That bettors think Biden or Romney are the picks doesn't necessarily suggest the super-secretive campaigns are leaky.
That said, if the markets are right it could deflate the big announcements, perhaps especially Obama's. Will the most hyped text message in political history be greeted with a ho hum?
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