Sabato's Latest

Larry Sabato has updated analysis on all the gubernatorial races. Here are the tidbits I found most interesting. He changed the North Carolina governor's race, ...
by | October 13, 2008

Larry Sabato has updated analysis on all the gubernatorial races. Here are the tidbits I found most interesting.

He changed the North Carolina governor's race, between Democrat Bev Perdue and Republican Pat McCrory, to a toss up:

Still, Perdue just hasn't caught fire. Had anybody but McCrory won the GOP primary, she would be "in like Flynn." However, McCrory is doing well enough to grab McCain's possible (short) coattails. It may simply be that, after sixteen years of Democratic control of the statehouse, Tar Heels want--here it comes again--"change."

He also lists the Washington race between Gov. Christine Gregoire and Republican Dino Rossi as a toss up:

Early polls showed her ahead of Rossi beyond the margin of error, but more recent ones have hinted at a tightening contest. At the same time, there may be a hidden sympathy vote for Rossi once the circumstances of the 2004 election are replayed for voters at the end of the campaign.

And, of course, I can't resist telling you what Sabato said about my favorite election of the year, the Vermont governor's race:

Vermont couldn't be more liberal and Democratic, yet Republican Governor Jim Douglas has a good chance to win his fourth term. It helps that Douglas is a moderate, of course. His Democratic opponent, State House Speaker Gaye Symington, could be assisted by the expected Obama landslide, but she's hurt by the siphoning of left-wing votes likely to end up in the column of Progressive Party nominee Anthony Pollina. In the Green Mountain State, the progressives are a real force--appropriate for a state that elects a Socialist to the U.S. Senate (Bernie Sanders). Given all this, why don't we list it as a sure victory for Douglas? Because under quirky Vermont law, he must win 50% plus one in a three-way split--or the Democratic state legislature will get to elect the next governor. Why do we think they will be tempted to choose their Democratic speaker, Ms. Symington? On the other hand, an old sense of Yankee fairness and propriety may lead them to confirm Douglas as governor as long as he has led Symington by a substantial margin in the popular vote.

Josh Goodman
Josh Goodman  |  Former Staff Writer
mailbox@governing.com  | 

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