NJ-Governor: Does Chris Daggett Hurt Corzine or Christie?
I've speculated on whether independent Chris Daggett will take more votes from Democrat Jon Corzine or Republican Chris Christie in the New Jersey governor'...
I've speculated on whether independent Chris Daggett will take more votes from Democrat Jon Corzine or Republican Chris Christie in the New Jersey governor's race. Public Policy Polling offers something better than speculation, though. Data:
Let's start with the incumbent. Daggett's voters say they went for Corzine 55-37 over Doug Forrester in 2005 and that they voted 57-32 for Barack Obama last fall. 47% of them are Democrats and just 18% are Republicans. Based on all that you would think they're taking from Corzine.
But we also asked Daggett supporters who their second choice would be. And 48% of them said Christie to just 32% for Corzine, seeming to indicate that it's actually the Republican being hurt by the unusually strong independent.
The answer may be a little more nuanced than a simple conclusion that Daggett is hurting either Christie or Corzine. It looks like he's picking up disaffected progressives who can't quite bring themselves to vote for a Republican. So he's hurting Corzine because these voters should be his base but he's also hurting Christie because if he wasn't in the race those voters might be eager enough for change that they would cross over and vote for him.
Join the Discussion
After you comment, click Post. You can enter an anonymous Display Name or connect to a social profile.
The Week in Public Finance: Moody About Ratings, the Worst-Funded Pension and Data Disappointment3 days ago
Some States Call for Bigger Cuts in Greenhouse Gas Emissions3 days ago
Jeb Bush’s Medicaid Fix: More Choices, Fewer Benefits?3 days ago
Ex-Virginia Lawmaker Vows to Marry the Teenager He Got Pregnant (and Run for Senate)3 days ago
6 Baltimore Police Officers Indicted in Freddie Gray's Death3 days ago
Judge Legalizes Gay Marriage in Alabama, But Not Yet3 days ago