NJ-Governor: Does Chris Daggett Hurt Corzine or Christie?
I've speculated on whether independent Chris Daggett will take more votes from Democrat Jon Corzine or Republican Chris Christie in the New Jersey governor'...
I've speculated on whether independent Chris Daggett will take more votes from Democrat Jon Corzine or Republican Chris Christie in the New Jersey governor's race. Public Policy Polling offers something better than speculation, though. Data:
Let's start with the incumbent. Daggett's voters say they went for Corzine 55-37 over Doug Forrester in 2005 and that they voted 57-32 for Barack Obama last fall. 47% of them are Democrats and just 18% are Republicans. Based on all that you would think they're taking from Corzine.
But we also asked Daggett supporters who their second choice would be. And 48% of them said Christie to just 32% for Corzine, seeming to indicate that it's actually the Republican being hurt by the unusually strong independent.
The answer may be a little more nuanced than a simple conclusion that Daggett is hurting either Christie or Corzine. It looks like he's picking up disaffected progressives who can't quite bring themselves to vote for a Republican. So he's hurting Corzine because these voters should be his base but he's also hurting Christie because if he wasn't in the race those voters might be eager enough for change that they would cross over and vote for him.
Join the Discussion
After you comment, click Post. You can enter an anonymous Display Name or connect to a social profile.
Undocumented Immigrants Can't Be Denied Bail, Rules Missouri Supreme Court9 hours ago
Interstate Health Care, Part of GOP's Replacement Plan, Has Failed to Attract Insurers' Interest10 hours ago
Child Care Subsidies Are Dwindling, for and by the States10 hours ago
What Oakland Can Learn From Rhode Island's Response to Deadly 2003 Fire10 hours ago
30 Road Projects Halted in Montana Due to Budget Shortfall11 hours ago
South Carolina Makes History With 4 Women in State Senate11 hours ago