Alan Greenblatt is a GOVERNING correspondent.E-mail: firstname.lastname@example.org
Just got this Franklin & Marshall College Poll of 640 registered voters in Pennsylvania that shows Clinton beating Obama there.
Hillary Clinton still leads Barack Obama in the race for the Democratic nomination, 44% to 32%. Clinton's margin has dropped eight points since January, where she led Obama 40% to 20%. Clinton leads Obama among women, whites, and those with the least education. Obama does better among non-whites and those with a college degree. Obama does not yet hold an advantage among young adults, which is a group he has won by large margins in many early primary states. One in five (20%) Democrats remain undecided, and about two in five (37%) respondents who voice a candidate choice are still making up their minds.
Clinton supporters are apt to cite health care as the issue that first comes to mind when they think of her, while Obama supporters cite Iraq, health care and change when they think of him.
The poll suggests that if the election were held now, McCain and Clinton would tie (46 percent apiece), while McCain would edge Obama, 44-43. That's not such a vast difference but it's intriguing. In terms of Obama being a "risky" candidate, Pennsylvania strikes me as a state that Democrats have consistently carried in recent elections but that Obama conceivably could lose -- I don't think Rendell was making that stuff up.
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