So it’s risky drawing broad lessons from two state legislative races that, combined, represent 3% of the state’s voting population.
As tea leaves go, however, Tuesday night’s special elections in Florida deliver an unmistakable message: Republicans are facing headwinds riding into this fall’s midterms.
Democrat Brian Nathan is leading in the race for the Hillsborough County Senate district vacated last year when Republican Jay Collins was appointed by Gov. Ron DeSantis to lieutenant governor. Democrat Emily Gregory flipped a Palm Beach County House district that includes Mar-a-Lago. President Donald Trump comfortably won both districts two years ago. (A third special election Tuesday kept a Central Florida state House seat safely in Republican control.)
“Voters are always telling us what they want,” Democratic gubernatorial candidate David Jolly said Wednesday. “They are telling us now that they want change. I’m convinced that if the election were held today, we’d win the governorship.”
It’s not just Democrats who are drawing lessons from the two races. After the surprise results, Republicans complained privately and publicly that they need to regroup.
A senior adviser to Collins, who is running for governor, noted on X that the two losing GOP candidates, Jon Maples and Josie Tomkow, were both endorsed by U.S. Rep. Byron Donalds, the Republican gubernatorial front-runner.
“Byron could easily lose the general (election) to a Dem,” John Cardillo posted, suggesting Tuesday’s results show Donalds’ vulnerability.
Another Republican candidate for governor, James Fishback, said Tuesday’s results confirmed that the GOP establishment is out of touch.
Asked about the results, Fishback referred to a statement he posted on X: “Unlike last night’s candidates, our campaign will never deny the affordability crisis crushing Florida families.”
A spokesperson for the Republican National Committee urged restraint in extrapolating.
“Low-turnout state House and Senate special elections are a snapshot of local quirks, candidate dynamics, and turnout math,” the spokesperson said in a statement. “Not some grand verdict.”
But Democrats said Wednesday that even with the usual caveats, Tuesday’s outcome spoke volumes about their chances to regain power.
Historically, Democrats do well in off-year elections when Trump is not on the ballot, said Mark Riddle, a senior adviser to the Jolly campaign. Since Trump’s reelection, Democrats nationally have flipped 30 state legislative seats while Republicans have managed none, according to the Democratic Legislative Campaign Committee.
“We’re seeing large increases in Democratic intensity,” Riddle said. “But independent voters are breaking for Democrats by a 2-to-1, 3-to-1 margin.”
In a recent poll by the University of North Florida, 57% of independents viewed Trump unfavorably. More than half of the respondents identified affordability as the No. 1 problem facing Florida.
Inaction by state lawmakers to address rising living costs gave Democrats an opportunity to appeal to voters, said Democratic U.S. Rep. Kathy Castor of Tampa.
“It’s a real wake-up call across the state of Florida, and rightfully so,” Castor told the Tampa Bay Times. “People are just so fed up with the chaos.”
Nathan and Gregory were good candidates at this moment because they evoke calm, which is something Democrats need to promote in other races, said Democratic strategist Steve Schale.
“They passed the normal test, which is what you need in a center-right district,” he said.
Schale cautioned that Tuesday’s victories don’t mean the math for Democrats suddenly works in a state where they have 1.5 million fewer registered voters than Republicans.
In Miami-Dade and Broward counties, for instance, former Vice President Kamala Harris barely managed half the vote. To win a statewide race, a Democrat would need to win more than 60% of the vote there, Schale said.
Still, Republican plans to pick up extra seats in Congress might be jeopardized, Schale said.
In April, state lawmakers return to Tallahassee to consider new congressional district maps. There are 20 Republicans and eight Democrats in Florida’s U.S. House delegation. Gaining Republican seats, as DeSantis has promised and Trump dearly wants, would require redistributing voter populations as district boundaries get redrawn.
In essence, to flip safe Democratic seats would require unpacking Republican majorities in other districts. Tuesday’s results suggest that Republican seats are more competitive than originally thought and redrawing boundaries could pose a risk.
“Redistricting is like a balloon,” Schale said. “If you tie it up in one place, the air will pop up somewhere else. If you’re a Republican urging caution, Tuesday is a pretty good argument.”
That’s certainly the lesson that U.S. House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries, a Democratic representative from New York, is taking from Tuesday’s election results.
“We will crush House Republicans in November if DeSantis tries to gerrymander the Florida congressional map,” Jeffries tweeted on Wednesday.
©2026 Tampa Bay Times. Visit tampabay.com. Distributed by Tribune Content Agency, LLC.
