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California Primaries Tee Up Stark Ideological Fights

Votes aren’t fully counted, but the general-election duels for California governor, L.A. mayor and other offices are starting to take shape.

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Early returns show Democrat Xavier Becerra and Republican Steve Hilton leading the gubernatorial race.
(David Crane/TNS)
Results are still trickling in from California’s primary elections, with national significance in races for governor, mayor, U.S. representative, and even the relatively unknown state insurance commissioner’s office. Even with many races still uncalled, what’s emerging is a series of stark ideological contrasts between likely candidates in November’s general elections.

Unlike most states, California’s primaries are open. That means voters can choose among candidates from all parties, and the top two vote-getters advance to a runoff. That can sometimes — and often does — pit two candidates from the same party against one another in a general election. This year’s primary elections in California have been marked by crowded, competitive fields of candidates. In some of the big races, the likely winners will have only received about a third of voters’ support.

Given the open primary system and a big field of contenders for the governor’s office, Democrats had anxieties about being edged out of the general election despite their massive competitive edge in California. In early spring polls, the two Republican candidates were performing better than any of the Democratic candidates. As of Wednesday morning, a Republican, former TV host Steve Hilton, was the top vote-getter in the gubernatorial race. But he was trailed closely by Xavier Becerra, a former U.S. representative, California attorney general and health secretary under President Joe Biden, killing the prospect of an all-Republican general election in November.

If elected, Becerra would be the first Hispanic governor of California, a state with more than 15 million Hispanic residents, the most in the U.S. and larger than the entire population of most states. Becerra did not emerge as a Democratic favorite until relatively late in the race, after former U.S. Rep. Eric Swalwell dropped out amid sexual misconduct allegations. Tom Steyer, a billionaire who campaigned mostly on climate issues, appeared to be the Democratic runner-up with about 20 percent of the vote as of Wednesday morning, while former U.S. Rep. Katie Porter, San Jose Mayor Matt Mahan, and former Los Angeles Mayor Antonio Villaraigosa all had earned less than 5 percent. Republican Chad Bianco, the sheriff of Riverside County, was running in fourth place with about 11.5 percent.

The next governor of California will face a host of challenges, from the high cost of housing and other basic needs to the growing threat of wildfires and other climate disasters, volatile budget outlooks, and transit systems in fiscal crisis. They’ll run a state with outsize importance in national politics and the fourth-largest economy in the world. Despite California’s strong Democratic lean, the state has been led by an even number of Republicans and Democrats over the last 50 years. A contest between Hilton and Becerra would pit two fairly mainstream partisans against one another for the state’s highest office.

In California’s biggest city, Mayor Karen Bass, a Democrat, emerged from Tuesday’s primary election with a strong lead against a field of challengers on the left and right. Bass’ approval ratings dropped after her response to the Los Angeles wildfires in 2025, leaving her vulnerable to challenges. One of her critics, conservative former reality TV star Spencer Pratt, was leading the pack of challengers as of Wednesday morning, potentially setting up a right-vs.-left general election in the fall.

Before Pratt’s surprising rise, it appeared that Bass could face a rematch of her 2022 race with real estate developer Rick Caruso, who ultimately opted not to run against her again. A former ally, city councilwoman Nithya Raman, joined the mayoral field at the last minute. She had earned about 22 percent of the vote as of Wednesday morning, shy of Pratt’s 30 percent and Bass’ 35 percent, though there were many ballots still to be counted. Whoever emerges as the general-election challenger to Bass will no doubt attack her governing record. But the tenor of the campaign could be a lot different based on whether Pratt or Raman is the challenger, representing either a right-wing critique of big-city Democratic politics or left-wing critique of Bass’ record on housing and other issues.

The race for California insurance commissioner will help determine how the state manages the linked challenges of housing costs, urban growth and disaster response. Insurance companies in the state have raised premiums, dropped coverage and stopped offering new plans altogether in recent years as climate-related wildfires have become more frequent and severe. The top two vote-getters on Tuesday were Jane Kim, a progressive former San Francisco supervisor and head of the state Working Families Party, and state Sen. Ben Allen, a Democrat whose Los Angeles-area district was badly damaged during the 2025 fires. Allen has said he wants to stabilize the insurance market while pushing insurance companies to provide more help to homeowners after disasters. Kim has promoted a plan to offer “disaster insurance for all,” a state-run program that would provide supplementary coverage and invest premiums in risk mitigation work. The head-to-head between Allen and Kim will highlight divergent views within the Democratic Party on the roles of government and private industry.

And two Democrats, both former state and local officials, will face off for the congressional seat held by U.S. Rep. Nancy Pelosi. State Sen. Scott Wiener, a former San Francisco supervisor who has pushed pro-housing policies through the Legislature over the last eight years, earned the most votes in the primary on Tuesday. He will face Connie Chan, a current San Francisco supervisor who is endorsed by Pelosi. How the candidates frame their campaigns’ housing agendas, particularly in often-resistant-to-development San Francisco, or whether they talk much about housing at all, could be a revealing test of how state and local political leaders envision congressional power.

Carl Smith contributed to this report.
Jared Brey is a senior staff writer for Governing. He can be found on Twitter at @jaredbrey.