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Topic: The San Diego mayoral race
Results: Incumbent Jerry Sanders 42%, businessman Steve Francis 35%, others 8%, undecided 15%
Analysis: The cross tabs are what make this poll really fascinating. But, to understand why, you have to remember the campaign Francis ran in his third-place mayoral bid in 2005. From a scathing editorial in the Union-Tribune :
Clearly, Francis believes voters have forgotten it was he who sought and received the endorsement of the Republican Party in his 2005 campaign, in which he portrayed himself as a standard-issue conservative, pro-business, tax-cutting, card-carrying Republican who only met with labor groups as "a courtesy" and who did not even return a campaign questionnaire from the Sierra Club. Now he's an "independent" who not only promotes his endorsement by labor unions but also that of the Sierra Club.
The interesting thing is that Steve Francis 2.0 really is catching on with Democrats. Sanders has a 20-point lead among Republicans (he's been endorsed by the G.O.P. this time), but only a one-point lead among Democrats. Francis is benefiting from being the lone strong anti-Sanders candidate in the nominally non-partisan race. If no one gets to 50% in the June 3 primary, the top two candidates will face off in a November runoff.
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