This year the conventional wisdom has been that a Republican will take the governor’s office again — almost certainly Vivek Ramaswamy, a biotech entrepreneur and friend of Trump who co-led the Department of Government Efficiency alongside Elon Musk. Polls show Ramaswamy far ahead in the primary race, with election day scheduled for next week. But there are lingering questions about how well Ramaswamy will fare in the general election, when he’ll face Democrat Amy Acton, a former public health director for the state who’s unopposed in the Democratic primary. It’s not likely that a Democratic wave in 2026 would flip the Ohio governor’s office. But it’s not impossible.
“The question becomes, is it a tidal wave, a tsunami, or a trickle?” says Herb Asher, a political scientist at The Ohio State University. “For Democrats to have a good year in Ohio, it has to be a major wave.”
Republicans’ strength in the state comes from a few factors. Ohio has lots of post-industrial cities and towns, where many communities that were formerly sustained by decent middle-class manufacturing jobs have been left behind in a changing economy — a dynamic that Trump has skillfully tapped into. Republicans have held statewide offices long enough to have built a bench of candidates with good name recognition in the state, something Democrats have had difficulty with. And the state’s legislative districts are favorable to Republicans in the state legislature, while the GOP could pick up two more congressional seats after redistricting this year.
One of Ohio’s most prominent Democrats, former U.S. Sen. Sherrod Brown, lost his re-election campaign amid the red wave two years ago and is hoping for a comeback this year, in a special election to complete the senate term of Vice President JD Vance. If Democrats were to win the Ohio governor’s race and a U.S. Senate seat, the state might start to look a little more blue.
Even still, Republicans’ advantages in the state legislature could make it a tough environment for a Democratic governor. With their current numbers in the legislature, Republicans can override a governor’s veto, something they’ve done to their own fellow Republican, Gov. Mike DeWine, several times. Democrats could conceivably shrink the GOP’s legislative majorities enough to make the veto a meaningful tool. But that’s a far cry from running the show.
“I don’t think anybody expects the Democrats, in the near term, to ever win control of the General Assembly,” Asher says.
