In 2020, Nevada’s public school enrollment — encompassing both traditional school districts and charter schools — sat at around 480,000. Now, enrollment is expected to be around 455,000 by the end of the current school year, according to State Superintendent Victor Wakefield.
That’s a drop of nearly 30,000 students over 5 years.
Wakefield told lawmakers during an interim legislative committee hearing last week that Nevada’s declining birth rate and migration trends are the primary drivers of that trend. However, some school districts appear to see charter schools as the more immediate threat to their enrollment.
While Nevada’s overall population continues to grow, that growth is driven by retirees and people without children.
At the same time, Nevada’s birth rate fell by 17.2% between 2011 and 2023, according to Pew. That was one of the largest declines in the nation — 4th of the 51 states and DC — and significantly higher than the national average decline of 10.6%.
The result is that, even with a still-rising overall population, graduating high school classes across the state are bigger than incoming kindergarten cohorts. Current graduating seniors are among the last of the larger “pre-recession” babies before 2008.
It’s a national trend education policymakers refer to as an “enrollment cliff.”
The Nevada Association of School Superintendents surveyed its district leaders about their declining enrollment: 9 of 16 selected birth rate as having the largest negative impact on their enrollment, four selected charter schools, and two selected “housing and migration.”
Carson City School District Superintendent A.J. Feuling told state lawmakers last week that his district’s highest grade levels are all around 600 students. That 600 figure was once something the district could rely on.
“Our last three kindergarten classes, I think, were 434, 410, and 425″ students, he said. “We just have these larger classes falling off and smaller classes coming in.”
Fueling pointed to housing costs as a major contributor.
“Just here in Carson City I think the median home value is $525,000,” he said. “I just don’t know how any young, working class family can move into Carson City. And I know that’s not unique to Carson City.”
Wakefield concurred, adding that housing costs are also contributing to some younger families relocating out of state.
While private school enrollment did see a spike during the covid pandemic, it is not a significant driver of declining public school enrollment. Private school enrollment increased by around 3,100 students between 2019 and 2024, according to the state’s most recent report.
To what extent homeschool is growing and impacting the public school system is unclear to education leaders. Homeschooled students aren’t tracked by the state.
Wakefield told lawmakers homeschooling families are required to inform their local school district once but there is no follow-up to see if those families ever adjust course or move.
“There is not robust data,” he said.
Fueling said that superintendents have anecdotally reported receiving more of those “notice of intent to homeschool” forms during covid and post-covid years than they did pre-pandemic. But that’s the extent of what he knows.
“It’s, like, poof, and they’re gone,” he said. “They never have to report back to us.”
Wakefield said collecting more data on homeschool students would require “a policy change” at the state level.
Regardless of the causes, the end result is the same for school districts and their schools: Less money.
Assemblymember Selena La Rue Hatch, a Democrat from Reno, said one misconception she’s heard is that having fewer students means each school district will have more to spend on the students they do have. But that isn’t how education funding works in the state.
The state funds districts and schools on a per pupil basis, so declines in enrollment mean declines in funding.
In response to declining enrollment, districts across the state are responding by “right-sizing” their classes and facilities, according to Wakefield and NDE State Education Funding Manager Melissa Willis.
That means reducing personnel, consolidating services or reducing spending where they can. It can be a challenge, added Wakefield, because of fixed costs like facilities, transportation, staffing and maintenance.
Wakefield told lawmakers they should focus on ways to make budgeting predictable and sustainable for districts as they adjust to changing enrollment patterns. He pointed to the Nevada Commission on School Funding as a valuable resource for specific policy recommendations for the 2027 Legislative Session.
That commission is expected to present to state lawmakers in a future meeting of the interim education committee.
This story first appeared in the Nevada Current. Read the original here.
