Readers can use this as a guide to watching the returns -- and as a check on the accuracy of our analyses.
For the Electoral College, gubernatorial and AG contests, we not only offer a rating, such as tossup or lean Democratic, but also a rank ordering. That is, the list can be viewed as a continuum between the states or races most likely to go Republican (at the top) and those most likely to go Democratic (at the bottom). The idea is that, once the results are in, we should be able to draw a line somewhere in the middle of the tossup category and divide the seats won by the GOP from the seats won by the Democrats.
For the Electoral College, we have achieved strong accuracy in past cycles. In 2008, just one state and one of Nebraska's congressional districts were on the wrong side of our dividing line. And in 2012, every state was on the correct side of the line.
Our gubernatorial handicapping has been generally accurate as well. In 2010, we were off by just one contest; in 2012, we were fully correct; and in 2014, our worst performance, we were wrong about four (out of 36) contests.
In 2014, the first cycle we rank-ordered state AG races, our calls were fully accurate. And in the seven state legislative cycles handicapped, we've, on average, mislabeled as noncompetitive one or two chambers that ultimately flipped party control.
Our final ratings show 274 electoral votes are likely to go to Hillary Clinton, 186 to Donald Trump and 78 remain in the tossup category. That's a few electoral votes more than Clinton needs to win the presidency without having to win any tossup states.
Since our previous handicapping in October, we've made five shifts between rating categories, plus a handful of moves within a single category. Two of the shifts between categories benefited the Democrats (one congressional district in Maine, which shifted from lean Republican to tossup, and Nevada, which shifts from tossup to lean Democratic) and three benefited the Republicans (New Hampshire moving from lean Democratic to tossup, and Indiana and Missouri moving from lean Republican to likely Republican).
Here's the full breakdown, with new rating shifts in bold:
Alabama (9), Arkansas (6), Idaho (4), Kansas (6), Kentucky (8), Louisiana (8), Mississippi (6), Montana (3), Nebraska (4 of 5 electoral votes), North Dakota (3), Oklahoma (7), South Dakota (3), Tennessee (11), West Virginia (5) and Wyoming (3)
Texas (38), Alaska (3), South Carolina (9), Missouri (10; shifts from lean Republican), Indiana (11; shifts from lean Republican)
Utah (6), Nebraska (1 of 5 electoral votes), Georgia (16), Iowa (6)
Ohio (18), Arizona (11), Maine (1 of 4 electoral votes; shifts from lean R), Florida (29), North Carolina (15), New Hampshire (4; shifts from lean Democratic)
Nevada (6; shifts from tossup), Colorado (9), Wisconsin (10), Michigan (16), Pennsylvania (20), Maine (2 of 4 electoral votes), Virginia (13), Minnesota (10), New Mexico (5)
California (55), Connecticut (7), Delaware (3), District of Columbia (3), Hawaii (4), Illinois (20), Maine (1 of 4 electoral votes), Maryland (10), Massachusetts (11), New Jersey (14), New York (29), Oregon (7), Rhode Island (4), Vermont (3) and Washington state (12)
Click the map to create your own at 270toWin.com
Currently, Republicans hold a historically large 31-18 lead in governorships. (There's one independent, Alaska's Bill Walker.)
We made only one change since our last handicapping in October, shifting the Missouri gubernatorial from lean Democratic to tossup.
Democratic victories in each of the competitive contests would produce a two-seat gain, reducing the GOP's lead to 29-20. By contrast, a Republican sweep of all competitive seats would result in a six-seat gain and a strikingly dominant overall GOP edge of 37-12.
As usual, the most likely outcome is somewhere in the middle. But regardless of how 2016 shakes out, the GOP will end the year with a continued big lead in governorships.
Here's the rundown, with new rating shifts in bold:
Utah Gov. Gary Herbert (R)
North Dakota: Open seat (R)
Missouri: Open seat (D); shifts from Tossup
Vermont: Open seat (D)
West Virginia: Open seat (D)
Montana Gov. Steve Bullock (D)
New Hampshire: Open seat (D)
North Carolina Gov. Pat McCrory (R)
Indiana: Open seat (R)
Washington Gov. Jay Inslee (D)
Oregon Gov. Kate Brown (D)
Delaware: Open seat (D)
Nationally, the GOP holds 27 AG offices and the Democrats hold 23. If the GOP can run the table of competitive races, its national lead in AG offices would jump to a dominating 30-20. Democrats, by contrast, look likely to have a shot, at best, of making a net gain of one seat. In the absence of a strong national partisan tide, the GOP stands to gain a seat or two.
We've changed the ratings in one race since our last handicapping in September, shifting the West Virginia AG race from lean Republican to tossup.
Here's the full rundown, with new rating shifts in bold:
Utah AG Sean Reyes (R)
Montana AG Tim Fox (R)
Indiana: Open seat (R)
West Virginia AG Patrick Morrisey (R); shifts from lean R
Missouri: Open seat (D)
North Carolina: Open seat (D)
Pennsylvania: Open seat (D)
Vermont: Open seat (D)
Oregon: AG Ellen Rosenblum (D)
Washington state: AG Bob Ferguson (D)
Currently, the GOP controls 68 legislative chambers to the Democrats' 30.
We see 26 chambers as competitive -- 18 currently held by Republicans and eight held by Democrats. That's down by one competitive chamber since our last handicapping in October.
Of the 18 chambers held by Republicans, six are rated as tossups, 11 as lean Republican and one as lean Democratic. Of the eight chambers held by Democrats, one is rated lean Republican, two are rated as tossups and five as lean Democratic.
Without a one-sided wave, Democrats could regain control of a half-dozen chambers this cycle. But a larger or smaller number is certainly possible.
Since our last handicapping, we've shifted one chamber towards the Democrats (the New Mexico Senate, from lean Democratic to likely Democratic) and two toward the Republicans (the Kentucky House, from tossup to lean Republican, and the Iowa Senate, from lean Democratic to tossup).
Here's our state-by-state summary, with new rating shifts in bold:
Neither chamber is contested this year.
Senate: Projected Likely R
House: Projected Likely R
Senate: Projected Lean R
House: Projected Lean R
Senate: Projected Safe R
House: Projected Safe R
Senate: Projected Safe D
Assembly:Projected Safe D
Senate: Projected Tossup
House: Projected Lean D
Senate: Projected Tossup
House: Projected Lean D
Senate: Projected Safe D
House:Projected Safe D
Senate: Projected Likely R
House: Projected Likely R
Senate: Projected Safe R
House: Projected Safe R
Senate: Projected Safe D
House:Projected Safe D
Senate: Projected Safe R
House: Projected Safe R
Senate:
House:
Senate: Projected Safe R
House: Projected Safe R
Senate: Projected Tossup (shift from lean D)
House: Projected Likely R
Senate: Projected Likely R
House: Projected Likely R
Senate: Projected Safe R
House: Projected Lean R (shift from Tossup)
Neither chamber is contested this year.
Senate: Projected Tossup
House: Projected Lean D
Neither chamber is contested this year.
Senate: Projected Safe D
House:Projected Safe D
Senate: No Races
House: Projected Lean R
Senate: Projected Lean D
House: Projected Lean R
Neither chamber is contested this year.
Senate: Projected Likely R
House: Projected Likely R
Senate: Projected Safe R
House: Projected Safe R
Nebraska's unicameral legislature is officially nonpartisan; Governing doesn't handicap it.
Senate: Projected Tossup
Assembly: Projected Lean D
Senate: Projected Tossup
House: Projected Lean R
Neither chamber is contested this year.
Senate: (shift from lean D)
House: Projected Tossup
Senate: Projected Tossup
Assembly:Projected Safe D
Senate: Projected Lean R
House: Projected Lean R
Senate: Projected Safe R
House: Projected Safe R
Senate: Projected Likely R
House: Projected Likely R
Senate: Projected Safe R
House: Projected Safe R
Senate: Projected Safe D
House:
Senate: Projected Likely R
House: Projected Likely R
Rhode Island
Senate: Projected Safe D
House: Projected Safe D
Senate: Projected Safe R
House: Projected Safe R
Senate: Projected Safe R
House: Projected Safe R
Senate: Projected Safe R
House: Projected Safe R
Senate: Projected Safe R
House: Projected Safe R
Senate: Projected Safe R
House: Projected Safe R
Senate: Projected Safe D
House:Projected Safe D
Neither chamber is contested this year.
Senate: Projected Lean R
House: Projected Lean D
Senate: Projected Lean R
House: Projected Likely R
Senate: Projected Lean R
Assembly: Projected Lean R
Senate: Projected Safe R
House: Projected Safe R