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Why the Autonomous Car Might Never Happen

Why Google's self-driving car will probably fail.

A good technology demonstration so wows you with what the product can do that you might forget to ask about what it can't. Case in point: Google's self-driving car. There is a surprisingly long list of the things the car can't do, like avoid potholes or operate in heavy rain or snow. Yet a consensus has emerged among many technologists, policymakers, and journalists that Google has essentially solved—or is on the verge of solving—all of the major issues involved with robotic driving. The Economist believes that "the technology seems likely to be ready before all the questions of regulation and liability have been sorted out." The New York Times declared that "autonomous vehicles like the one Google is building will be able to pack roads more efficiently"—up to eight times so. Google co-founder Sergey Brin forecast in 2012 that self-driving cars would be ready in five years, and in May, said he still hoped that his original prediction would come true.

 

But what Google is working on may instead result in the automotive equivalent of the Apple Newton, what one Web commenter called a "timid, skittish robot car whose inferior level of intelligence becomes a daily annoyance." To be able to handle the everyday stresses and strains of the real driving world, the Google car will require a computer with a level of intelligence that machines won't have for many years, if ever.

It's easy to understand the excitement about the Google car. The first two prototypes were heavily modified Prius and Lexus models; the most recent, a dome-shaped two-seater with a top speed of 25 mph, is entirely computer-controlled, lacking even a steering wheel. (Because California allows the testing of a robotic car only if a human is on board to assume control in an emergency, the company can't test the latest prototype on public roads.)

By most accounts, a demo ride in any of the Google cars is an astonishing thrill. It’s even more impressive when you recall that in a much-publicized test only a decade ago, robotic vehicles couldn’t finish even eight miles of a 150-mile course. Surely it’s still possible, despite the current challenges, that Google’s legion of genius Ph.D.s could make quick work of any remaining obstacles. Right?

 

Daniel Luzer is GOVERNING's news editor.
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