Tuesday’s primary is shaping up to be full of surprises and possible upsets, mostly among warring Republicans.
Depending on the outcome of more than half a dozen key races pitting establishment GOP candidates against outsiders, tea party members or Ron Paul supporters, the results could affect Democrats’ chances of winning the lieutenant governor’s job and maintaining control of the state Senate in the Nov. 4 general election.
The fewer voters, the better the odds are for GOP challengers — if they can get their loyal supporters to the polls in an election that might see the lowest turnout in Nevada history. The record was set in 2008 at 18 percent statewide. In Clark County, the record low turnout that same year was just under 15 percent.
“The smaller the voting pool the greater any single vote exerts on the outcome — and the more ideological voters of both parties tend to be the more reliable primary voters,” said David Damore, political science professor at UNLV. “So a small pool of voters fill(ed) with ideologues may mean trouble for incumbents who are depicted as out of step with party orthodoxy.”
If you want a recent example from the Democratic side, look at the 2012 contest between former state Sen. John Lee, D-North Las Vegas, and Patricia Spearman, an openly gay minister who scored a huge upset, beating Lee 63 percent to 37 percent.
Lee, now mayor of North Las Vegas, was seen as too conservative and was targeted by Spearman supporters.
More importantly, what happens in the primary affects the general election, which will determine which direction the state takes on hot-button issues from taxes and health care to education and economic development.
“In a number of these races, a couple hundred votes could make the difference,” said Dan Hart, a Democratic operative.
Or even one vote; Nevada has seen ties before, with the winner chosen by cutting cards.
This year, all the action is on the Republican side. Here’s a look at close races to watch where upsets are possible:
LIEUTENANT GOVERNOR
GOP Gov. Brian Sandoval has endorsed state Sen. Mark Hutchison, R-Las Vegas, an attorney, to be his No. 2, but Republican Sue Lowden, a former state senator, refused to stand aside.
Lowden is running to the right of Hutchison, slamming him for voting to implement President Barack Obama’s health care insurance law after he fought it in court, representing Nevada for free. In 2010, Lowden was the establishment pick when she ran for the U.S. Senate in a campaign where she still owes vendors some $600,000, a debt Hutchison calls irresponsible.
A third Republican, Chris Dyer, is an also-ran.
Lowden, a former TV newscaster and chairwoman of the Nevada Republican Party, is more widely known than Hutchison. But he’s got far more money, spending nearly $1 million in the first four months of the year on his campaign.
The race is hotly contested because the victor could move up into the governor’s office if Sandoval, who is expected to easily win re-election, doesn’t complete his second term and instead runs for U.S. Senate or accepts a Cabinet or judicial post in a Republican administration if the GOP wins the White House in 2016.
The winner of the GOP primary will face Assemblywoman Lucy Flores, D-Las Vegas, who has spent this year quietly raising more than $300,000 and taking advice from U.S. Sen. Harry Reid, D-Nev., and his campaign team.
If Lowden beats Hutchison she might have a tougher time against Flores because she has more negative baggage, from campaign debt to her comments in 2010 that people could use chickens to barter for health care. Also, for the general election, Lowden would have to moderate her rhetoric and expand her views on issues.
“She has yet to articulate any policy position besides ‘taxes and Obamacare are bad,’ ” Damore said.
Democrats are expected to frame the campaign as one against a rich Republican who’s out of touch — whether it’s Lowden or Hutchison — compared to Flores, the child of immigrants who put herself through law school after a troubled youth.
One interesting side note: If Hutchison wins the lieutenant governor’s post, the all-Democrat Clark County Commission would have to appoint a Republican to finish the second half of his four-year state Senate term.
“What kind of Republican do you think seven Democrats will pick?” Damore asked.
