I looked at whether the main page of each party's Web site mentions Bush or includes a picture of him--based on the theory that the sites would only reference the president if party leaders believed there was a political advantage to be gained by it. My findings give both Republicans and Democrats reasons to be optimistic.
Bush was mentioned on 27 of the 49 G.O.P. Web sites (I couldn't find an active site for the Wyoming Republican Party), including 10 of 19 in states Sen. John Kerry carried in the 2004 presidential race. Even in Michigan, where Democrats are attempting to deflect blame for the poor economy from Governor Jennifer Granholm by focusing attention on Bush, the state G.O.P. isn't afraid to include a giant photo of the president. That's one small piece of evidence that Republicans are standing by their man.
This strikes me as a prudent political strategy. At least to some degree, the fortunes of Republican officeholders, from congressional candidates, to governors to city council members, will be linked to Bush's popularity. There is no way 2006 will be a good Republican year if the president's approval ratings are in the low forties in the fall. The surest way Republicans could guarantee that Bush's numbers don't improve would be to stop defending him.
This isn't to say that Republicans everywhere should or will tie themselves too closely to the president. For example, a couple of months ago I asked Jeffrey Deckman, the executive director of the Rhode Island Republican Party, whether he thought a visit by Bush would help or hurt Governor Don Carcieri's reelection chances. His response: "I don't see the president coming here to do that." Still, the important point is that Republicans aren't distancing themselves from Bush to the extent that the very act of distancing compounds the president's political problems.
However, the president's low approval ratings do seem to have emboldened Democrats, even in red states. Overall, 23 of 50 state Democratic Web sites mention Bush, including 13 of 31 in states the president won in 2004. Even in Utah, where Bush took 71.5% of the vote, the state Democratic Party site includes "Top 12 media myths and falsehoods on the Bush administration's spying scandal."
This finding suggests the neutralization of a problem that has plagued Democrats over the past few years. Many red state Democrats have viewed the national party as too liberal, while blue staters have grown frustrated with the lack of backbone they perceive from their red state colleagues. This divide manifested itself in 2004, when many Southern and Western Democrats did not attend the Democratic National Convention in Boston and offered only tepid support for Kerry.
Now, based on their Web sites, state Democratic parties seem to be more on the same page. If that's true, the party stands to gain from its newfound cohesion.
