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High Stakes, Close Races

There's more of almost everything in state politics this year: more power, more attention, more money.

Ten years ago, the last time a national campaign was held in the midst of a census and looming reapportionment, there was little doubt which party held the trump cards. Democrats controlled 29 of the 50 governorships, and boasted majorities in both legislative chambers in 30 states, to the Republicans' six. Roughly 60 percent of the legislators in America were Democrats--as had been true for more than two decades. Few thought the huge disparity would be erased anytime soon.

But that is exactly what happened in the 1990s. Legislative control is now virtually even, with 19 legislatures in Democratic hands and 18 dominated by the GOP. Another 12 are split. Much more striking has been the revolution in gubernatorial control. Now, it is the Republicans who hold 30 governorships, and the Democrats who are struggling to catch up with them.

This mirrors changes that have occurred at the congressional level, but with one important difference: devolution. Republicans came into power in state politics just as the states themselves were gaining in influence by the transfer of responsibilities downward from Washington. So the 1990s not only were a decade of partisan change in state capitols, they were a decade in which the electoral stakes grew steadily higher. The inevitable results have been increased interest- group activity and commensurate infusions of campaign cash.

Take all these factors, add in the redrawing of legislative-district lines that will take place next year, and what you get is a recipe for the most competitive set of state-level campaigns the nation has seen in modern memory.

For the most part, Republicans head into this election season in good shape. Not only have they achieved parity or better in most of the big states--they control both the legislature and the governorship in Florida, Michigan, Ohio and Pennsylvania, among other places--but they have used their majorities virtually everywhere to enact large and widely noticed tax reductions. Over the past five years, the states as a whole have approved net tax reductions of more than $22.5 billion. That tax-cutting trend continues this year, and on balance, Republicans seem poised to claim more credit for it than Democrats.

There is one glaring exception to the pattern of Republican optimism, and that is California. In the one state where redistricting matters most to the national parties--the state that accounts for nearly an eighth of the country's population--Republicans are in a decidedly weak position and seem destined to remain there. With Democrat Gray Davis in power in Sacramento, and Democrats in comfortable control of the Assembly and Senate, Republicans are beginning to have nightmarish flashbacks to the 1980s, when a Democrat-written redistricting plan consigned them to the worst possible map imaginable. It took the party nearly a decade to recover.

Elsewhere, a great deal is hinging on this fall's results in just a few legislative districts. A switch of five seats or fewer would shift party control in 47 legislative chambers. In the Democrat-controlled Texas House, six seats separate the two parties. In the Senate, the margin is even tighter--loss of a single seat would oust Republicans from power. In Illinois, four House seats stand between Republicans and full control of state government. Those are concerns not only in Austin and Springfield but in Washington, D.C., where control of Congress could hinge on lines drawn during the next legislative sessions in the largest states.

Although it's a presidential election year, historical trends reveal that, barring a landslide, the top of the ticket rarely influences legislative races. Yet many of the same issues that currently occupy the national spotlight are dominating debates in the nearly 7,000 legislative districts up for election this year. Education, health care, tax relief, gay rights and gun control are prominent among them.

In some states, legislative control may pivot on more localized issues. In the Pennsylvania House, where Republicans hold a razor- thin, two-seat majority, a surfeit of scandals and ethical scrapes-- the more serious ones working against the GOP--may determine the balance of power. In Washington State, where the House is deadlocked and Democrats hold a five-vote Senate majority, a recently passed tax- cutting initiative continues to cast a broad shadow over the state's political landscape.

The 1999 ballot measure, known as Initiative 695, replaced the state's motor-vehicle-excise tax with a $30 flat fee, and requires voter approval of any new tax and fee increases. All told, the I-695 tax revolt is expected to cost the state roughly $750 million in lost revenues. Aside from trying to fill that gap, both parties will spend the 2000 legislative session trying to assess the initiative's political fallout. Republicans view it as a call for lower taxes, limited spending and smaller government. Democrats, most of whom opposed the measure, consider the vote a singular anti-tax protest rather than a demand for further slashing.

Gambling will be another issue to watch, especially in South Carolina, where voters will decide whether to create a state lottery in a November referendum. There, as in other Southern states, Democrats have halted the Republicans' Southern advance mainly by advocating various forms of legalized gambling to pay for education spending--and attracting the financial support of gambling interests as a result.

If Democrats are weaker nationally than they might have expected to be, they are stronger in the South. After 1994, it appeared that the Republican Party might be on its way to long-term domination of Southern state capitols, but things did not turn out that way. With the recent election of Democrat Ronnie Musgrove to the Mississippi governorship, all four of the "deepest" Deep South states--Alabama, Georgia, Mississippi and South Carolina--are back in the Democratic gubernatorial column for the first time in more than a decade.

Democratic gains in the South remain fragile, however, due largely to the same issue that made many of them possible: gambling. In Alabama last October, voters soundly defeated a measure to legalize a state lottery, even though Democratic Governor Don Siegelman had won office promising to create one. In South Carolina, an anti-gambling backlash emboldened the legislature to ban video poker from the state altogether, just months after gambling-industry contributions carried Democrat James Hodges to the governorship. Hodges is supporting this year's ballot measure to create a lottery for education.

Term limits will be another volatile political commodity this fall, as 11 more chambers in six states feel the effects of term-limit laws for the first time. All told, nearly 400 legislators in 12 states are ineligible to run for reelection in 2000 because of these laws.

So far, term limits haven't proven a boon for one party or another. Still, the potential for dramatic impact remains. In Florida, for example, 55 of 120 House members are ineligible to run this year. In the Ohio House, 43 of 99 will be required to depart. If such immense turnovers happen to coincide with a strong partisan trend, politics in these states could be altered for years to come.

Even where term limits do not change the face of legislatures, they may still alter the political balance. In the Arizona Senate, where Republicans hold a two-seat advantage, the onset of term limits may be the factor that tips the scales. In Arkansas, where Democratic domination is the norm, term limits offer the GOP some reasons for hope. In 1998, as the term-limit law began to kick in, Republicans picked up 10 new seats; the same law is forcing 37 more seats into open status this year.

With only 11 governorships up this year--and only four of the 30 GOP- held governorships--Republicans will retain their majority no matter what happens on November 7th. Democrats, on the other hand, must defend seven seats, including three where the incumbent governor is being retired by term limits.

Two of these three, Missouri's Mel Carnahan and Delaware's Tom Carper, are seeking U.S. Senate seats. The third outgoing Democrat, North Carolina's James B. Hunt Jr., is retiring from office after serving a four-term tenure that began nearly a quarter-century ago. A crowded field is shaping up to succeed him, including House Minority Leader Leo Daughtry, former state representative Chuck Neely and former Charlotte Mayor Richard Vinroot on the Republican side, and Attorney General Mike Easley and Lieutenant Governor Dennis Wicker for the Democrats. The wide-open governor's race may also feature North Carolina's version of Jesse Ventura--bleached-blond wrestler Ric "Nature Boy" Flair. Unlike Ventura, who had previously served as a suburban mayor, Flair has never held elected office before.

Democrats boast unusually competitive candidates for the open gubernatorial posts in the Republican strongholds of Montana and North Dakota. But the open Missouri governorship is of special concern to national Democratic strategists. Republicans are just two seats away from a state Senate majority and are closing fast on Democratic control in the House. A strong showing at the polls could put Republicans in control of both chambers--and thus in control of the redistricting process, where they could draw lines to complicate the life of Congressman Richard Gephardt, who stands to be elected speaker of the U.S. House if Democrats win back control there.

At this stage in the campaign, most of the gubernatorial incumbents seeking reelection appear poised to achieve it. Utah's Republican governor, Michael Leavitt, dodged a serious intraparty challenge from the right. Washington's Gary Locke and Vermont's Howard Dean, both Democrats, also look strong.

The incumbent with the toughest road to reelection may be West Virginia GOP Governor Cecil H. Underwood, who is seeking reelection to a third term at age 77. Underwood's return to office four years ago after a 36-year hiatus was something of a fluke in overwhelmingly Democratic West Virginia. Taking advantage of Democratic intraparty divisions, Underwood won with 52 percent. This year, he isn't likely to have such luck. While he has remained on relatively good terms with the opposition party, he will have a difficult time holding formerly disaffected Democrats in his camp.

In the 1990s, ballot initiatives and referenda became not only permanent fixtures in state politics but powerful forces as well. This year will continue the trend. More than 150 ballot measures already have been certified for circulation. Thirty will be on primary ballots, and another 43 are qualified for the general election.

While the full roster of ballot initiatives is still unsettled, physician-assisted suicide, tobacco-settlement distribution, tax relief and gaming are among the varied issues that voters will consider in the 24 states that permit initiatives or popular referenda. Legalization of marijuana for medical purposes will go before voters in Colorado and Nevada. In Washington, signatures are being collected for two companion measures to the I-695 tax reduction, and for initiatives on animal rights and zoning for big retailers. If Governor Jesse Ventura has his way in Minnesota, the legislature will send a measure to the voters asking them to replace the current two- house legislature with a single-chamber alternative.

As always, California and Oregon will be the prime initiative states to watch. Oregon voters will decide on competing measures for disbursing the state's share of tobacco-settlement money. Republicans prefer a plan that would spend the interest on anti-tobacco education, low-income housing, county health programs, senior and disabled transit services, and the Oregon Health Sciences University. Democratic Governor John Kitzhaber has a different idea and is circulating his own initiative petition that would set aside 25 percent of the money for a rainy-day fund for schools. A third measure, backed by the hospital industry, requires that interest from the settlement be directed toward the Oregon Health Plan, an approach that differs sharply from the GOP blueprint.

In California, the primary election ballot this month is crowded with 20 initiatives whose subjects range from campaign finance to criminal justice to gambling. School finance, tort reform and an initiative to repeal the state tobacco tax will also appear on the ballot. A measure that would effectively ban same-sex marriage may be the most contentious of all. Governor Gray Davis joins a heavy Hollywood contingent in opposing the ban.

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