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Girard Miller

Girard Miller

Contributor

Girard Miller retired in January 2026 as Governing’s finance columnist, having contribued some 200 biweekly columns after five years of monthly commentary for his “Benefits Beat” series. He expects to continue submitting occasional guest commentaries.

Miller was formerly an investment and public finance professional, and the author of numerous professional publications including the 2019 book “Enlightened Public Finance.” His professional career spanned 45 years of leadership in public finance and investments, which included the presidency of two national mutual funds. He has sponsored collegiate scholarships in his field for 25 years. Now residing in southern California, he can be contacted through LinkedIn.

A market crash doesn’t seem imminent, but there are lessons for public financiers, pension funds and policymakers from collapses of the past.
In short, more clarity with less spectacle. Last year’s federal tax cuts won’t have much of an impact on state and local revenues, but tariff refund politics could be a fiscal wild card. And AI’s effects will be felt on several fronts.
Success in the coming years will require sustainability, adaptation and perseverance, especially as AI both enhances and disrupts government. Professional leaders need to look beyond the short term, facilitate change where needed, and reinvent themselves.
State and local financial managers face the impact of federal aid cutbacks, plus new rules and even some opportunities. It’s time to focus on what’s practical and necessary, both near and longer term.
Instead of across-the-board property tax cuts, targeted state and federal incentives for younger first-time home buyers and older would-be sellers could begin to break the logjam in the housing market.
Short-term interest rates are likely to continue ratcheting down, making it a challenge for state and local financiers to maximize income on investments. But there are a few opportunities here and there.
Not much for now, with next year’s insurance premiums jumping far more than general inflation and tax revenues. Employers’ only hope to begin stemming these costs long term is a stronger, unified front at the state and national levels. There also could be an important role for public pensions.
State and local retirement systems should collaborate to develop an AI-powered digital assistant to help government employees make better financial decisions throughout their careers. Hand-me-downs from the private sector won't cut it.
Innovators, investors and practitioners are on the hunt for fruitful applications of blockchain and other evolving financial technology. Undoubtedly some of their ambitions will involve government finance. Which ones might actually pan out?
No matter where they end up, import taxes aren’t likely to drive inflation enough to have much effect on state or local tax revenues. Public financiers have more to think about amid federal aid cutbacks, AI's impact on employment and rate-cutting by the Fed.