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Kasich Comes in Second in New Hampshire Primary

With a late surge propelling him to a solid albeit distant second place in Tuesday's New Hampshire primary, Ohio Gov. John Kasich vaulted into the top tier of GOP presidential contenders.

By Darrel Rowland

With a late surge propelling him to a solid albeit distant second place in Tuesday's New Hampshire primary, Ohio Gov. John Kasich vaulted into the top tier of GOP presidential contenders.

"There's magic in the air with this campaign because we don't see it as just another campaign," an exultant Kasich told hundreds of cheering fans in a hotel conference room a couple of miles from the state capitol.

"We see this as an opportunity for all of us -- and I mean all of us -- to be involved in something that's bigger than our own lives to change America. To reshine America. To restore the spirit of America. And to leave no one behind."

It also was a big night for billionaire Donald Trump, who cruised to a huge victory despite dropping the F-bomb and other R-rated remarks in recent New Hampshire appearances.

Since World War II, either the winner or runner-up in New Hampshire has gone on to take the GOP nomination.

Kasich pointed out he triumphed over candidates whose supporters aired several million worth of negative ads against him.

"Something big happened tonight," Kasich said. "Maybe, just maybe, at a time when clearly change in the air ... we're turning the page on a dark part of American politics because tonight, the light overcame the darkness."

As he does often on the campaign trail, Trump said in his victory speech that he will turn America into a winner again.

"We are going to win so much, you are going to be so happy, he proclaimed.

Judging from exit polls, Kasich benefitted from late-deciding voters -- which made up a significant portion of the state's GOP vote. Two-thirds of Republicans say Saturday's debate was an important factor in their decision, which could indicate many abandoned Sen. Marco Rubio of Florida after his poor showing.

Now Kasich's challenge is to cement his role as the prime alternative to Trump and Sen. Ted Cruz of Texas, who was fighting former Florida Gov. Jeb Bush for third place.

Critical to that task are decisions by major GOP donors and political figures on whether to follow through with support that Kasich says was promised if he did well in the nation's first primary. He often predicted if he became "a story" coming out of New Hampshire, his campaign would be launched "like a rocket ship" all the way to the nomination.

Another crucial factor: Which candidates, if any, drop out in coming days -- and can Kasich win their supporters or contributors? Back-of-the-pack finisher New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie said he would go home to consider his future with his family. Like Kasich, he bet everything on New Hampshire.

"GOP leaders who do not want Trump and do not want Cruz cannot be happy that candidates who are more palatable to them like Bush, Rubio, and Kasich appear poised to continue to pull votes away from each other," said Kondik of the University of Virginia's Center for Politics.

Even with his successful showing in the Granite State, Kasich must immediately compete in political terrain decidedly less friendly to his relatively moderate, work-with-the-other-side approach.

Kasich already is in South Carolina today -- where his campaign concedes he won't win the Feb. 20 primary. He has a bus tour scheduled through Saturday's GOP debate.

The Bush family has always done well in the Palmetto State, and Cruz will find many conservative Christians to target there.

Bush spokesman Tim Miller says Kasich "ran a one-state campaign" and doesn't have "a viable path" to the nomination because he "doesn't have a constituency past New Hampshire."

Faced with voters generally more conservative than those of the Granite State, the Kasich team is hoping to merely pick off a few delegates in South Carolina before moving on to caucuses in Nevada, and the so-called SEC primary March 1.

Presuming he doesn't get blown out of the water in those contests, Kasich himself said he is counting on a win in Michigan on March 8 as the political calendar returns to territory more conducive to his campaign.

But even Kasich strategist Tom Rath, former New Hampshire attorney general, admits, "We'll be behind in delegates on March 15."

That's the day the Kasich campaign hopes to roll, with the first winner-take-all contests in Ohio, Florida, Illinois and Missouri. In following weeks it's on to such states as Pennsylvania and Wisconsin, where Kasich is counting on his Midwestern appeal to carry the day.

Kasich's strategy was based on the time-honored path to success in New Hampshire: Multiple contacts with voters in small settings, and a strong ground game that swelled to hundreds of volunteers -- including one who flew in Tuesday from London -- the final days of the campaign.

The Bush family has always done well in the Palmetto State, and Cruz will find many conservative Christians to woo there.

Faced with voters generally more conservative than those of New Hampshire, the Kasich team is hoping to merely pick off a few delegates in South Carolina before moving on to caucuses in Nevada, and then the so-called SEC primary on March 1.

Presuming he doesn't get blown out of the water in those contests, Kasich himself said he is counting on a win in Michigan on March 8 as the political calendar returns to territory friendlier to him. He is taking two days out of the run up to South Carolina next week to campaign in GOP counties near Detroit.

But even Kasich strategist Tom Rath, a former New Hampshire attorney general, admits, "We'll be behind in delegates on March 15."

That's the day the Kasich campaign hopes to roll, with the first winner-take-all contests in Ohio, Florida, Illinois and Missouri. Then, in following weeks, it's on to such states as Pennsylvania and Wisconsin, where Kasich is counting on his Midwestern appeal to carry the day.

Kasich's strategy was based on the time-honored path to success in New Hampshire: multiple contacts with voters in small settings, and a strong ground game that swelled to hundreds of volunteers the final days of the campaign.

For some reason he seemed to connect with people in difficult situations, dispensing hugs when cameras were present and when they weren't, and sometimes having staffers follow up to see how those struggling were doing.

Such empathy seemingly could help Republicans who have long fallen short of Democrats in poll questions about whether a candidate "cares about people like you."

But during the stretch run, Kasich took a generally positive approach, becoming the first and only candidate to call on his super-PAC to take down an ad bashing an opponent. However, he promised to respond in kind if attacked, and his staff members on Tuesday read from a script with two shots at Bush.

"Everyone is beginning to talk about Kasich running a positive campaign; can it work?" he said during the final days of the race during yet another town hall.

"It would be really cool if it worked."

(c)2016 The Columbus Dispatch (Columbus, Ohio)

Caroline Cournoyer is GOVERNING's senior web editor.
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