* Although the Republicans currently hold a 28-22 edge in governorships, no one expects that advantage to last beyond the 2006 election. The main reason is that the 2006 playing field is very favorable to the Democrats, with Republicans having to defend 22 of the 36 governorships that are up, including 8 of 9 open seats. Sabato also anticipates that a "six-year itch"--voter fatigue with President Bush--may help Democrats win governorships. He has argued that Democrats have a better opportunity in governors races than congressional races next year.
Here's how it looks state by state.
* In Texas, rumors have been flying that Comptroller Carole Keeton Strayhorn, who had been expected to challenge Governor Rick Perry in the Republican primary, may instead run as an independent. Sabato and Gonzales both expect Perry to win no matter what Strayhorn decides. An independent bid would put White House Press Secretary Scott McClellan in an awkward position, however. Strayhorn is McClellan's mother, but presumably President Bush would back Perry. Sabato also thinks independent Kinky Friedman could score in the upper teens or twenties.
* The best pickup opportunity for Democrats is in New York, where Attorney General Eliot Spitzer is the heavy favorite. Gonzales and Sabato don't expect Spitzer to have trouble dispensing with his primary challenger, Nassau County Executive Tom Suozzi, although Suozzi will likely be well funded.
* Democrats have better than 50-50 shots at winning the Republican-controlled open seats in Massachusetts and Ohio. In Massachusetts, Governor Mitt Romney's decision not to seek reelection puts Republicans in a bind, although the state's voters have a history of electing GOP governors. In Ohio, Gonzales expects the unpopularity of outgoing Republican Gov. Bob Taft to give Democrats an edge there.
* Republicans' best chance to win a Democrat-controlled governorship is in Iowa. Republican Rep. Jim Nussle is a slight favorite, since he shouldn't have trouble securing his party's nomination, while the Democrats face a crowded primary.
* The most endangered incumbent in the country is probably Dave Heineman of Nebraska, who is being challenged in the Republican primary by Tom Osborne, a former congressman and legendary football coach. Democrats have virtually no shot here.
* After Heineman, the most vulnerable incumbent Republicans in the country are Bob Ehrlich of Maryland and Arnold Schwarzenegger of California. In spite of Schwarzenegger's low approval ratings, he's considered a slight favorite to win reelection. As Gonzales explained, California is an extremely expensive state to run a campaign and neither of his current challengers, Steve Westly and Phil Angelides, are well-known statewide. He added that it is unlikely a more prominent Democrat will jump into the race because the state party heavyweights, Nancy Pelosi, Dianne Feinstein and Barbara Boxer, have all endorsed Angelides.
* There's no clear consensus as to which Democratic governor is most vulnerable next year. Sabato leaned toward Illinois Governor Rod Blagojevich, although he also mentioned Ted Kulongoski of Oregon and Brad Henry of Oklahoma. Blagojevich has been coping with ethics charges and could face moderate Republican Judy Baar Topinka in the general election. Gonzales also named Blagojevich, but he said he has heard Michigan's Jennifer Granholm, who faces a Republican willing to spend his personal fortune to unseat her, mentioned too. Washingtonpost.com's Chris Cillizza ranks Granholm as being in the most trouble, with Kulongoski second. Ed Rendell of Pennsylvania and Jim Doyle of Wisconsin will also have credible opponents, although none of these Democrats is probably in as much trouble as Ehrlich and Schwarzenegger.
* Republicans have the edge in the open-seat race in Florida, but Gonzales and Sabato disagreed over the chances of a Democratic upset. Gonzales noted that outgoing Republican Jeb Bush is popular, that the GOP nominee will have won statewide before, while the Democrat won't have, and that the Republicans are raising more money. Sabato said Democratic Rep. Jim Davis has impressed him.
* On Alaska's unpopular governor, Republican Frank Murkowski, Sabato said, "I assume Murkowski's going to retire, but you can never tell for sure."
* The chances of a party switch in Alabama hinge on the results of the Republican primary. If the more conservative Roy Moore defeats GOP Governor Bob Riley, Democrats will have a good opportunity.
* According to Sabato, the open-seat race in Arkansas leans slightly toward Attorney General Mike Beebe, the Democratic candidate.
