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Why They Stayed

Why did so many people stay in New Orleans despite Ray Nagin's mandatory evacuation order? We've all got our own theories. People are stubborn; they've ...

Why did so many people stay in New Orleans despite Ray Nagin's mandatory evacuation order? We've all got our own theories. People are stubborn; they've rode out hurricanes before; they don't have cars; they don't trust government orders; government didn't try hard enough to get them out.

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The answer to this question is one of the most important takeaways state and local officials will get from Katrina, as they go about adjusting their emergency plans. Finally, we've got some numbers to look at. The Washington Post, the Henry J. Kaiser Family Foundation and the Harvard School of Public Health polled 680 evacuees in Houston. A snapshot of the results are here. Full results are here.

Among the more troubling findings: 25 percent of those polled said they did not hear the evacuation order. Of those who did hear it, 32 percent said the order did not give clear information on how to get out of town. That's fair evidence for the argument that government did not do a good job of communicating the danger to its citizens.

The transportation question came out mixed. More people than I expected--56 percent--said they could have found a way to leave. 42 percent said they had no way out. In a separate question, 55 percent said they didn't have a car.

It's clear that health problems were also a big reason why people stayed. 22 percent said they were physically unable to leave. 23 percent said they stayed to care for someone who was physically unable to leave.

In the stubbornness category, 37 percent said they just didn't want to leave. 64 percent said they didn't think the storm would be as bad as it was.

Photo: FEMA

Christopher Swope was GOVERNING's executive editor.
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