When you consider all the competing theories (the perils of weekend polling, incorrect likely voter models, low response rates, oversampling of independents, the Bradley effect, etc.), the most remarkable thing is that the polls usually get it right.
Why Were the New Hampshire Polls Wrong?
Mark Blumenthal at pollster.com has a fascinating post looking at why the pre-election surveys didn't anticipate Hillary Clinton's victory in the New Hampshire Democratic ...
Mark Blumenthal at pollster.com has a fascinating post looking at why the pre-election surveys didn't anticipate Hillary Clinton's victory in the New Hampshire Democratic primary.
When you consider all the competing theories (the perils of weekend polling, incorrect likely voter models, low response rates, oversampling of independents, the Bradley effect, etc.), the most remarkable thing is that the polls usually get it right.
When you consider all the competing theories (the perils of weekend polling, incorrect likely voter models, low response rates, oversampling of independents, the Bradley effect, etc.), the most remarkable thing is that the polls usually get it right.
