While working on my May feature on state and local climate change initiatives, I must have had a half dozen environmentalists inside and outside of government tell me that federal regulation of greenhouse gases emissions (most notably carbon dioxide) was inevitable. Oftentimes, they volunteered this prediction unsolicited. All acknowledged that any action was unlikely for the duration of the Bush administration. But, beyond that, they were supremely confident.
In truth, there is a case to be made that they are right.
State and local governments have created a great deal of momentum in favor of reducing greenhouse gas production. State governments have big plans for regulating power plant and automobile emissions and mayors representing about 15% of the U.S. population have promised to reduce emissions in their cities to meet the standards of the Kyoto Protocol. Equally significantly, the two 2008 presidential frontrunners, Senators John McCain and Hillary Clinton, both favor federal regulation of carbon dioxide.
Still, I'm skeptical of this much optimism. I think that part of the reason environmentalists say that federal greenhouse gas regulation is inevitable is to make it into a self-fulfilling prophecy. If business groups stopped expending their resources fighting federal legislation because they believed some form of regulation was inevitable, then it indeed would be inevitable. For this reason, supporters of greater governmental action on climate change have a strong incentive to project a confident posture.
Critics of greenhouse gas regulation certainly agree with me on this point. They told me that once the costs of regulation become clear then support will dissipate, in particular noting the difficulty Europe is having meeting the Kyoto standards. Thus, they seem just as optimistic as their adversaries -- it's just that the result they want is completely different.
But, I don't completely believe them either. Just like the folks on the other side of the issue, critics of greenhouse gas regulation are more likely to achieve their policy ends if they can convince businesses that their optimism is warranted. For that reason alone, you ought to be suspicious.
