Last year, states lowered taxes for a record fifth consecutive year, approving a net tax reduction of $5.5 billion for FY 2000. State fiscal conditions remain just as favorable this year.
Who are the main players?
Support for specific tax-cutting initiatives varies from state to state and hinges on which constituencies benefit the most. Farmers and homeowners like property-tax relief. Income-tax cuts also have broad appeal.
Where will it be debated?
All but a handful of states will consider tax relief. Governor Paul Cellucci is lobbying for a massive income-tax reduction in Massachusetts. Meanwhile, Tennessee Governor Don Sundquist will continue his lonely crusade to institute a tax on personal income.
What can we expect?
Reductions in motor vehicle taxes and fees are exceptionally popular, but the tax-cutting binge makes nearly every levy a target. You know that tax-cut fever has taken hold when Maryland gets serious about it.
INTERNET/TECHNOLOGY
Why is this an issue?Wall Street investors aren't the only ones obsessing over the Internet these days. The brave new electronic world is raising a host of policy questions ranging from tax treatment of electronic commerce to criminal justice.
Who are the main players?
Main Street retailers favor sales taxes on e-commerce. State attorneys general aim to crack down on the Internet's seamier side-- pornography, gambling, drug and alcohol sales and various other electronic crimes.
Where will it be debated?
Interest in privacy rights and preventing identity fraud is widespread. Arizona lawmakers have moved to block the state and its localities from taxing Internet transactions. Maryland is debating a wide-ranging regulatory proposal.
What can we expect?
Congress may extend a current moratorium on Internet taxation, but beyond that, any substantive state action on Internet taxation is still at least a year away. A cybercrime crackdown and increased privacy protection are surer bets.
EDUCATION REFORM
Why is this an issue?School vouchers and charter schools continue to get most of the ink, but they're just a couple in a multitude of education reform initiatives aimed at boosting education quality and academic achievement.
Who are the main players?
When business weighs in, it's often in favor of sweeping reform. Teachers' unions and school boards are reluctantly learning to live with charter schools and accountability measures.
Where will it be debated?
Education issues--ranging from spending to school safety to state- intervention authority--top legislative agendas nearly everywhere. Accountability measures are center stage in Delaware. Georgia is another state to watch.
What can we expect?
Support for raising teacher pay is broad-based in many states. Despite Florida's recent passage of a voucher program, most proposals will die ingloriously in committee. Increased education spending, on the other hand, is a near certainty.
HEALTH CARE
Why is this an issue?In an election year, health maintenance organizations have a bull's- eye painted on them. Expanding children's health insurance, helping seniors with prescription drug costs and long-term care, and advancing mental health parity also rank high on the agenda.
Who are the main players?
Health care providers will again take their turf battles to the legislative arena. HMOs and other insurers will attempt to fight off hostile bills. In many states, Democrats will look to hang the HMO millstone around Republican necks.
Where will it be debated?
In Rhode Island and Massachusetts, the collapse of a regional HMO has lawmakers scrambling to respond. Florida is among those considering a patient bill of rights. Tennessee will try to shore up its innovative but struggling TennCare program.
What can we expect?
In the absence of congressional action, legislatures are moving aggressively to fill the regulatory void. It's going to be a long year for HMO lobbyists.
TOBACCO SETTLEMENT
Why is this an issue?Because spending $206 billion is harder than you think.
Who are the main players?
Interest groups are coming out of the woodwork for a share of the windfall. Health care and social services advocates want the money dedicated to health and education programs. Agricultural interests want relief for tobacco farmers.
Where will it be debated?
Nearly everywhere, to some extent. In Oregon, voters will determine settlement spending. The issue is clouded in Missouri by the question of whether the money counts as part of total state revenue--possibly requiring taxpayer refunds.
What can we expect?
Since there are no restrictions on how states distribute the money, each will ultimately craft its own unique spending plan. Most of the dollars will go to health care and anti-smoking efforts, but schools are also likely to benefit.
GUN RESTRICTIONS
Why is this an issue?The gun-control battle is an annual staple of legislative debate. Last year's tragedy at Colorado's Columbine High School makes the issue especially volatile in an election year.
Who are the main players?
As always, the National Rifle Association stands ready to fend off gun ownership restrictions. Big cities hope to defeat legislation that bars them from suing gun and ammunition manufacturers.
Where will it be debated?
Having passed tough firearms restrictions last year, California Democrats are looking to add to their success by requiring handgun registration and licensing of buyers. Colorado and Illinois will revisit contentious gun-control proposals.
What can we expect?
Veteran lawmakers recognize that opponents of gun control are far more intense than its supporters. Gun safety measures--such as trigger-lock requirements--have better odds than licensing and registration schemes.
GAY RIGHTS
Why is this an issue?In ruling that homosexual couples have a right under the state constitution to the same benefits as married couples, the Vermont Supreme Court just pulled the pin on a grenade and rolled it into legislative chambers across the country.
Who are the main players?
Social conservatives and the Religious Right versus gay-rights activists and the Liberal Left.
Where will it be debated?
California will vote on same-sex marriage in a March ballot initiative. Vermont, Colorado, New Hampshire and West Virginia legislators will take up the question. Maine, where voters in 1998 overturned a gay-rights law, is a key state to follow.
What can we expect?
Many legislative leaders will prefer to bury this disruptive and divisive issue in committee. States that failed to enact a ban on same-sex marriage in the past are unlikely to do so this year, but don't expect legislatures to bless gay unions.
GROWTH MANAGEMENT
Why is this an issue?A newly emergent recognition of the consequences of over-development- -increased traffic congestion, unsightly urban sprawl and environmental degradation--has catapulted growth-related measures onto voters' radar.
Who are the main players?
Environmentalists and slow-growth advocates are thrilled by recent action. Chambers of commerce are increasingly weighing in on the growth-control side. Developers generally resist regulation. Localities worry about surrendering land-use planning to state authorities.
Where will it be debated?
Revealing debates will occur in Arizona and across the Sun Belt, but open-space preservation and development issues will also surface in states such as Virginia with fast-growing suburban areas. Colorado is another state to watch.
What can we expect?
A number of proposals are modeled after Maryland's Smart Growth experiment, although the final product in other states is unlikely to be as ambitious. The political clout of developers should not be underestimated.
TRANSPORTATION
Why is this an issue?Flush with cash, states are looking to fix aging road and highway infrastructure and relieve traffic congestion.
Who are the main players?
Highway builders, labor, business--in other words, anyone who stands to make a buck. Urban interests and their Democratic allies will lobby for more transit funding, while Republicans and suburbanites will aim for road projects.
Where will it be debated?
Minnesota Governor Jesse Ventura is proposing an ambitious transportation package. Highway financing issues are being revisited in Utah. Virginia Governor James Gilmore's $2.5 billion spending plan pits region against region.
What can we expect?
Distributing capital projects in an election year can mean only one thing: a pork-barrel extravaganza.
ETHICS/CAMPAIGNING
Why is this an issue?The unease over the role of money and special interests in elections is as palpable as ever.
Who are the main players?
Good-government organizations and the press provide the constant drumbeat for reform. Interest groups ranging from the ACLU to Right to Life oppose contribution limits as a free-speech infringement.
Where will it be debated?
Georgia and Maryland will explore ethics measures; New York is looking to ban capitol-area fundraisers during the legislative session. In Connecticut, a recent scandal may lead to a campaign finance overhaul--including taxpayer financing of elections.
What can we expect?
The idea of public financing is drawing increasing support, but when it comes to campaign finance and ethics proposals, it usually takes a scandal to move the yardsticks.
