L.A. on the Brink of Political Change

When Antonio Villaraigosa ran for mayor of Los Angeles in 2001, he was showcased in countless national media stories as a symbol of growing Latino clout. That clout wasn't enough, however, to get him elected. This year, taking his second shot at now-incumbent Mayor James Hahn, Villaraigosa has been leading in all the polls. If he does break through and defeat Hahn on May 17, he will owe his triumph to a combination of factors much more complex than a rise in the number of Hispanic voters.

As usual when an incumbent is in trouble, this year's contest turns on politically unpopular decisions Hahn has made in office. After winning his first term with strong black support, Hahn fired Bernard Parks, the city's black police chief, angering many African Americans. Then Hahn alienated some of his more conservative Anglo constituency by thwarting the desire of San Fernando Valley residents to secede from the city as a whole. Those decisions gave Villaraigosa his opening.

The most noticeable difference between these two Democrats is the more energetic personal style of Villaraigosa, a former speaker of the state Assembly. There's not a lot of daylight between them on major issues. Hahn does talk tougher on crime. He points out that after dismissing Parks as police chief, he brought in the nationally respected William Bratton as a commitment to first-class police management. But voters don't seem to be giving him much credit for that.

The electoral system in Los Angeles calls for a runoff between the top two candidates if nobody gets a majority in the first round. That was what happened in March, when Villaraigosa came in first and Hahn eked out a second-place finish amid an abysmally low turnout. What Hahn needs to catch his challenger now and win a second term, ironically, may be the support of the groups that he has most offended: blacks in the central city and Anglos in the Valley. "If Hahn had gone into the race with a lot of the black support and the conservative white support that he once had, it would have been really difficult for Villaraigosa to beat him," says Rafael Sonenshein, a Cal State Fullerton professor and author of a book on race and politics in L.A.

So far, though, Hahn doesn't seem to be making those connections. Instead, Villaraigosa has been spending the spring happily collecting endorsements from leaders and associations across political and racial lines that worked for his defeat last time around. If Villaraigosa wins, his major challenge in office will be to build a coalition more enduring than one created by the circumstances of a single election and a weak opponent. Whether he achieves it may prove more important than the size of the Hispanic vote.