State laws would once again have the final say as to where abortion would be legal and in what circumstances. From my analysis, 23 states would be likely to ban most abortions, 20 states would keep abortion legal (at least in the first trimester) and 7 states would be battlegrounds where it's difficult to predict what would happen. The full list is below, after the jump.
My analysis is based largely on a state tracking resource compiled by NARAL. The pro-choice organization designates each governor and each house of each state legislature as "pro-choice," "mixed-choice" or "anti-choice." From these rankings, it wasn't too difficult to predict what states would ban abortion. (It would be interesting to see whether a pro-life group would agree with NARAL's designations. A spokesperson for the National Right to Life Committee told me that they don't collect this type of information.)
Here are a few notes on how I came up with these rankings, as well as what pro-life America and pro-choice America would look like:
* Just over 137 million people would live in states where abortion was legal, while almost 129 million would live in states banning abortion. The battleground states have a population of just over 30 million.
* Of the 23 states that would be likely to have abortion bans, President Bush carried 19 of them in 2004. John Kerry won 14 of the 20 states that would be likely to allow abortion.
* In 16 states, now including South Dakota, state law bans abortion throughout pregnancy. So in these states abortion would instantly become illegal. It wouldn't necessarily stay that way, however. Once legislators had a chance to pass legislation, some of these states would likely make abortion legal. Lawmakers in other states would probably go in the opposite direction and pass new bans.
* I interpreted mixed-choice governors/houses as unlikely to approve abortion bans. For example, I deemed Nevada as likely to continue to allow abortion because the governor and both houses of the legislature are mixed-choice and there is no abortion ban currently on the books.
* I took into account natural legislative inertia -- it's much easier to maintain the legal status quo than it is to change it. Look at Kansas, where there is currently no abortion ban on the books. NARAL lists the Kansas House as anti-choice, the Senate as mixed-choice and Governor Kathleen Sebelius as pro-choice. It would be difficult to pass an abortion ban in Kansas because Sebelius and the Senate could block it.
* I included as battleground states places where the debate may hinge, either way, on a governor's veto. That seems to be the case in Massachusetts and Virginia. It's hard to say whether the legislatures in those states would have the votes to override. I also included states where the debate might hang on a few legislators in one mixed-choice house changing their minds on abortion. A handful of switchers could lead Georgia or Alaska to pass an abortion ban, or could affect whether New Mexico, Delaware or Oklahoma repeal theirs.
* Nearly all of these designations could change by January, as there are 36 governorships and more than 80% of state legislative seats on the ballot this year. As a result, South Dakota's new law will make abortion an even bigger issue in state politics this year and for the foreseeable future.
* Even if the new Supreme Court is inclined to overturn Roe (which isn't at all clear), the case won't reach the Court for years.
The complete list (* = states with current abortion bans):
States that are likely to continue allowing abortion: California, Connecticut, Hawaii, Illinois, Iowa, Kansas, Maine, Maryland, Montana, Nevada, New Hampshire, New Jersey, New York, North Carolina, Oregon, Pennsylvania, Tennessee, Vermont*, Washington and Wyoming
States that are likely to ban abortion: Alabama*, Arizona*, Arkansas*, Colorado*, Florida, Idaho, Indiana, Kentucky, Louisiana*, Michigan*, Minnesota, Mississippi*, Missouri, Nebraska, North Dakota, Ohio, Rhode Island, South Carolina, South Dakota*, Texas, Utah*, West Virginia* and Wisconsin*
Battleground states: Alaska, Delaware*, Georgia, Massachusetts*, New Mexico*, Oklahoma* and Virginia
