Nothing portends the future success of the gay rights movement as compellingly as the support the community enjoys among young voters. This trend was widely missed when 11 states passed referendums banning same-sex marriage in 2004. Young voters were not nearly as united in support of the ballot measures. In 10 of the 11 states, 18-29 year olds were less likely to support the bans than the electorate as a whole (Utah was the one exception).
In many states, the difference was substantial. (I'm using CNN's numbers, although there may be more refined data available). In Ohio, a state that voted almost exactly like the nation at the presidential level, 51% in the 18-29 age group backed the referendum--compared to 62% among all Ohio voters.
These numbers reflect a substantial cultural difference between young and old. Many young people, unlike their elders, have grown up knowing peers who are openly gay, seeing gays on T.V. and conceptualizing gay issues as a matter of providing equal rights, rather than preserving traditional values. This upbringing is likely to keep today's young voters supporting gay rights as they grow older, even if they grow more conservative on other issues.
In this context, it's understandable why social conservatives so urgently want to pass a federal constitutional amendment banning gay marriage. That reflects not only their deeply held beliefs, but also a recognition that if they don't pass the amendment soon, gay marriage will be here to stay.
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