The biggest cause of rising air travel congestion is the limited capacity of our major airports: 70 percent of all U.S. passengers boarded planes at just 31 major airports in 1999. While each of these most-used airports will experience major increases in travel demand in the next two decades, 27 of them are already seriously congested, especially in bad weather. How can these busiest U.S. airports cope with growing increases in air travel demand?
In theory, there are three solutions. The first is adopting new procedures for ground handling, using larger airplanes and developing an improved air control system that permits tighter spacing of airplanes in the air and shorter airborne routes. These tactics might increase capacity by 10 percent in good weather and 7 percent in bad.
The second approach is building more runways, which would increase capacity most effectively. In Atlanta, where a new runway is now under construction, estimates are that the new runway will raise daily capacity by 29 percent in good weather and 26 percent in bad. Coupled with the first solution, this runway will cover the rise in demand for air travel projected for Atlanta in 2010.
New runways are also needed at many other hub airports. Yet only six major airports were able to add runways in the past decade. Runway capacity has risen by only 1 percent while air traffic has soared by more than 40 percent.
The major obstacles to building more runways are opposition by environmentalists and local residents to more noise, air pollution, ground traffic and displacements of existing properties plus the lengthy procedures to get permission to build. At least six federal agencies and many more state and local ones must approve any runway proposal. Better coordination and faster execution of these complex review and approval processes should be a high priority for governments at all levels.
Although major airports are part of a single integrated national air transportation system, their land use is controlled by local governments with highly parochial viewpoints. Those living near these airports often become quite effective against proposed expansions. Except in Denver, local opposition has prevented building any new major airports in America for the past 26 years and slowed creation of many badly needed runways. It took Memphis 16 years to add two runways--including 10 years for planning and environmental review. Seattle-Tacoma has been trying to build a runway for 15 years; it is still not finished. The average period for getting through the Federal Aviation Administration's environmental reviews alone is 3.5 years. So the average total time needed to add a new runway to any major airport will be at least 10 years. The FAA, Congress and the air transportation industry are trying to streamline planning and permitting processes. But local opposition to almost every proposed runway remains adamant.
The third remedial tactic is charging much higher prices for landing fees at busy airports during peak hours. This strategy is designed to drive more small airlines and private planes to secondary airports. It would also discourage major airlines from over-scheduling flights in peak periods, as many do now.
Users of private planes have successfully lobbied against this strategy for years. If Congress adopted it, it would cause higher fares through hub airports as airlines pass greater costs onto passengers. But it would motivate airlines to use larger planes on fewer flights rather than increasing flight frequencies with small planes. Congress may accept some peak-hour pricing, but probably not enough to reduce significantly the need for greater capacity at the nation's key airports.
Realistically, it is highly unlikely that the capacity of the U.S. air travel system can be expanded by 2010 to accommodate fully the projected 38.8 percent growth in air travel demands. The probability of even larger shortfalls in capacity by 2020, when air travel growth is expected to rise by 107.5 percent, is greater still. Therefore, the actual volume of air travel will probably fall well below the demand curve, especially from 2010 to 2020.
This means air travel congestion is probably going to get a lot worse--more delays and cancellations, higher fares and greater difficulties getting reservations. That will motivate many would-be- travelers to adjust by using electronic communications, patronizing less convenient alternative airports or substituting car or train travel for shorter trips. Since we cannot quickly build our way out of this situation, the frustrations of traveling by air will surely intensify for the foreseeable future.
