"There may be a few incumbents who bite the dust, especially on the Democratic side, but it will not be a tidal wave of reaction," Green says. Instead, he cites a number of individual races where Illinois power players are fighting proxy battles.
A case in point is the 26th House district, where freshman incumbent Elga Jefferies (pictured above) looks particularly vulnerable. Her big blunder came last April, when she voted against a gun control bill that she had cosponsored. It narrowly lost. Jeffries says her vote was "mistaken" -- her poor excuse is that she was distracted by a phone call she took during the vote -- and pledges to vote for it the next time she gets a chance.
The battle, then, is really between two of her challengers, Kenny Johnson Jr. -- an ally of Congressman Jesse Jackson Jr. -- and Will Burns, a former aide to Barack Obama and Illinois Senate President Emil Jones. The race has featured countless mailers, endless phone banking and, for those really paying attention, the kind of low-blow full-body politics that makes Chicagoans proud of where they live.
"The internal politics of Illinois is really churning," Green says. "Think of pre-unified Italy."