Minnesota legislators seem as though they've been discussing moving the Twins out of the more football-friendly Metrodome forever (in reality it's only been a decade). What could make this session different -- and what makes it an interesting test of the willingness of governments to provide funds to baseball -- is that a court ruled in early February that the Twins aren't obliged to stay in the Metrodome beyond the 2006 season.
That ruling was significant because, as I note in a feature on baseball stadium financing in the March 2006 issue of Governing, public officials have become increasingly skeptical when baseball teams suggest they might leave town.
Due to MLB's 81-game home schedule, it takes a large and devoted fan base to support a team, something a very limited number of U.S. metropolitan areas can provide. As a result, only the Montreal Expos have switched cities in the past 30 years.
Against this backdrop, some lawmakers have come to view baseball teams' threats to leave as bluffs, or, worse still, blackmail, and have backed off providing public financing. In Minnesota specifically, the Twins have talked about leaving town at least since 1996. The question, therefore, is whether the recent court ruling will make the Twins' threat to leave seem more plausible and, if so, whether legislators will view keeping the team to be worth the public investment.
Another important part of the dynamic in Minnesota is that the state is not being asked to contribute any money from its coffers. Instead, Hennepin County will likely seek permission from the legislature to raise its own sales tax to fund the stadium, as it did last year. Thus, with the team not bound to stay beyond the season and no state money involved, the stars may be aligning for the Twins to finally win legislative approval. On the other hand, if legislators don't pass a stadium bill under these circumstances, it seems unlikely that they ever would. Such a rejection would augur an era in which baseball would face unprecedented obstacles to public funding.
Legislative leaders think they have the votes to approve a new stadium. However, there are at least three major obstacles to an agreement. First, since the planned ballpark is projected to cost $30 million more than it did last year, Hennepin County must renegotiate a deal with the Twins to take to the legislature. Then, the legislation would have to not be killed by an unfriendly committee chairman. Finally, legislators will have to agree on whether Hennepin should be required to hold a public referendum to approve the tax increase, something many stadium backers are hoping to avoid.
