On the campaign trail, Donald Trump responded to voter discontent with Washington by repeatedly pledging to reduce the size of government. But if he does succeed in significantly shrinking the federal workforce, most of the cuts will likely be felt outside the Capital Beltway.

The president issued a temporary hiring freeze days after taking office followed by a budget proposal that calls for drastically diminishing the federal workforce. A memo issued earlier this month by Office of Management and Budget (OMB) Director Mick Mulvaney lifted the hiring freeze but advises agencies to begin downsizing their workforces and submit a reform plan by September.

The federal government currently employs just over 2 million civilian employees, another 1.3 million active-duty military members and funds millions more contract positions. Contrary to popular notion, the majority of those jobs aren't located in the Washington, D.C., area. In fact, a review of the most recent Office of Personnel Management (OPM) figures shows 79 percent of federal civilians are based outside of D.C., Maryland and Virginia. 

How vulnerable federal employees are to job reductions depends in part on how their agencies are viewed by the administration and Congress. Trump’s funding proposals so far mostly mirror his rhetoric on the campaign trail: Boost defense spending and cut everything else.

The administration’s initial budget blueprint calls for spending increases to the departments of Defense, Homeland Security and Veterans Affairs. About 1,274,000 civilians were employed in these agencies as of December, according to the OPM. Not including the U.S. Postal Service, that leaves another 774,000 in other federal agencies who are more vulnerable to cuts.

States with the highest tallies of these remaining civilian employees, by our calculations, include: Maryland (81,325), California (45,682), Texas (35,505), Virginia (28,991) and Georgia (26,438).

 

State Vulnerable Agency Employment Military Civilian/DHS/VA Employment Total Employment
Alabama 8,115 30,320 38,435
Alaska 5,078 5,975 11,053
Arizona 13,963 17,820 31,783
Arkansas 4,221 8,688 12,909
California 45,682 95,476 141,158
Colorado 18,667 18,180 36,847
Connecticut 1,701 6,367 8,068
Delaware 689 2,460 3,149
District of Columbia 124,136 49,285 173,421
Florida 18,289 60,949 79,238
Georgia 26,438 45,827 72,265
Hawaii 2,836 19,533 22,369
Idaho 5,160 3,083 8,243
Illinois 15,303 26,101 41,404
Indiana 5,772 17,473 23,245
Iowa 3,381 5,288 8,669
Kansas 4,219 11,819 16,038
Kentucky 7,920 14,870 22,790
Louisiana 6,568 11,810 18,378
Maine 1,154 9,268 10,422
Maryland 81,325 49,077 130,402
Massachusetts 10,010 14,907 24,917
Michigan 6,851 18,692 25,543
Minnesota 6,401 10,029 16,430
Mississippi 4,499 13,297 17,796
Missouri 16,455 17,980 34,435
Montana 6,236 2,825 9,061
Nebraska 2,827 6,974 9,801
Nevada 3,741 7,118 10,859
New Hampshire 2,289 2,023 4,312
New Jersey 6,003 14,563 20,566
New Mexico 12,375 9,467 21,842
New York 21,100 31,533 52,633
North Carolina 9,536 34,053 43,589
North Dakota 2,615 2,963 5,578
Ohio 10,218 39,331 49,549
Oklahoma 8,899 29,321 38,220
Oregon 10,077 8,711 18,788
Pennsylvania 20,951 39,388 60,339
Rhode Island 771 6,602 7,373
South Carolina 4,706 16,226 20,932
South Dakota 4,528 3,803 8,331
Tennessee 9,284 17,127 26,411
Texas 35,505 78,665 114,170
Utah 9,372 18,691 28,063
Vermont 696 2,594 3,290
Virginia 28,991 107,386 136,377
Washington 14,899 39,147 54,046
West Virginia 7,527 7,674 15,201
Wisconsin 4,111 11,201 15,312
Wyoming 2,935 2,654 5,589

Figures do not include USPS, a limited number of smaller agencies and those for which job locations were suppressed.
SOURCE:
Governing calculations of OPM data current as of December 2016 Trump’s top target, the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA), is certain to incur cuts, and the agency announced last week that it would start offering buyouts to its employees. Other agencies with the steepest cuts in discretionary funding in Trump’s budget include the State Department (-29 percent), Agriculture Department (-21 percent) and Labor Department (-21 percent).

Congressional Republicans, though, have already signaled that Trump’s funding proposal is dead on arrival. Furthermore, many of his plans to trim the workforce or eliminate programs require approval from Congress and will likely encounter resistance, says Jessica Klement, legislative director for the National Active and Retired Federal Employees Association.

Either way, while federal agencies might not be in for deep cuts right away, the OMB memo, which specifically addresses the federal civilian workforce, makes it clear that they'll need to downsize over the longer term.

“There’s definitely a focus on cutting the headcount,” says Klement. “It stems from the perception that the workforce is growing.” 

Federal payrolls ticked up during the recession but otherwise haven't grown much over the past several decades. About the same number of employees (excluding postal workers) worked for the federal government last year as in the mid-1970s.

Another way to gauge how cuts could affect states and localities is by considering employee earnings. The latest estimates from the Bureau of Economic Analysis suggest that in 16 metro areas, federal civilians account for more than 10 percent of all work-related earnings. Most of these areas are near military bases.

Federal civilians make up 17 percent of earnings in the D.C. metro area and about 9 percent in Baltimore -- figures that would be much higher if they included federal contracting. In the small California-Lexington Park, Md., metro area, which is supported by a Naval air station, federal civilians account for one-third of all employee earnings. Other major metro areas where they have a greater presence include Albuquerque, N.M.; El Paso, Texas; and Honolulu. 

 

Metro Area 2015 Federal Civilian Earnings Share of Total Work Earnings
California-Lexington Park, MD $1,414,507,000 33.1%
Warner Robins, GA $1,481,701,000 31.1%
Bremerton-Silverdale, WA $1,993,475,000 27.8%
Sierra Vista-Douglas, AZ $587,971,000 22.2%
Washington-Arlington-Alexandria, DC-VA-MD-WV $57,027,730,000 17.5%
Huntsville, AL $2,739,865,000 16.8%
New Bern, NC $526,146,000 15.7%
Anniston-Oxford-Jacksonville, AL $343,271,000 14.1%
Elizabethtown-Fort Knox, KY $536,528,000 14.0%
The Villages, FL $184,576,000 12.0%
Ogden-Clearfield, UT $1,762,874,000 11.8%
Hinesville, GA $297,011,000 11.6%
Fayetteville, NC $1,398,598,000 11.3%
Texarkana, TX-AR $374,773,000 10.9%
Virginia Beach-Norfolk-Newport News, VA-NC $6,076,747,000 10.8%
Crestview-Fort Walton Beach-Destin, FL $836,343,000 10.4%
Parkersburg-Vienna, WV $233,954,000 10.0%
Las Cruces, NM $414,677,000 9.7%
Brunswick, GA $232,071,000 9.6%
Lawton, OK $338,575,000 9.5%
Baltimore-Columbia-Towson, MD $10,664,712,000 9.4%
Yuma, AZ $378,511,000 8.7%
Lebanon, PA $275,186,000 8.7%
Gulfport-Biloxi-Pascagoula, MS $849,146,000 8.6%
Dayton, OH $2,176,036,000 8.6%
Urban Honolulu, HI $3,301,764,000 8.6%
East Stroudsburg, PA $303,071,000 8.5%
Beckley, WV $201,002,000 8.3%
Jacksonville, NC $499,204,000 8.2%
Panama City, FL $399,655,000 8.1%
Albany, GA $273,416,000 8.0%
Pine Bluff, AR $152,674,000 7.9%
Battle Creek, MI $302,878,000 7.9%
Fairbanks, AK $303,706,000 7.8%
Killeen-Temple, TX $942,077,000 7.7%
Danville, IL $136,347,000 7.7%
Laredo, TX $435,203,000 7.5%
Alexandria, LA $293,856,000 7.4%
Hagerstown-Martinsburg, MD-WV $448,941,000 7.2%
El Paso, TX $1,361,847,000 7.2%
Cheyenne, WY $248,564,000 7.1%
Walla Walla, WA $133,251,000 7.1%
El Centro, CA $298,063,000 7.1%
Flagstaff, AZ $254,096,000 6.7%
Watertown-Fort Drum, NY $257,360,000 6.6%
Albuquerque, NM $1,562,413,000 6.5%
Winchester, VA-WV $243,397,000 6.5%
Rapid City, SD $269,715,000 6.3%
Montgomery, AL $643,969,000 6.2%
Johnson City, TN $282,775,000 6.2%
Columbus, GA-AL $535,226,000 6.1%
Oklahoma City, OK $2,852,445,000 6.1%
Anchorage, AK $999,968,000 6.0%
Great Falls, MT $137,839,000 5.9%
Colorado Springs, CO $1,226,394,000 5.9%
Clarksville, TN-KY $448,141,000 5.8%
Gainesville, FL $478,644,000 5.8%
Augusta-Richmond County, GA-SC $858,335,000 5.7%
Brownsville-Harlingen, TX $401,752,000 5.7%
Tucson, AZ $1,330,815,000 5.6%
Chambersburg-Waynesboro, PA $206,901,000 5.6%
Carbondale-Marion, IL $188,606,000 5.6%
Palm Bay-Melbourne-Titusville, FL $728,641,000 5.5%
Morgantown, WV $231,484,000 5.3%
Pensacola-Ferry Pass-Brent, FL $564,613,000 5.1%
Portland-South Portland, ME $904,941,000 5.0%
Chattanooga, TN-GA $812,206,000 4.9%
Davenport-Moline-Rock Island, IA-IL $598,244,000 4.9%
San Antonio-New Braunfels, TX $3,577,968,000 4.9%
Bakersfield, CA $1,150,145,000 4.8%
Burlington-South Burlington, VT $412,128,000 4.8%
Charleston-North Charleston, SC $1,119,073,000 4.8%
Topeka, KS $330,894,000 4.8%
Corpus Christi, TX $603,318,000 4.3%
Little Rock-North Little Rock-Conway, AR $959,444,000 4.3%
San Diego-Carlsbad, CA $5,443,857,000 4.2%
Farmington, NM $137,020,000 4.2%
Columbia, MO $244,505,000 4.2%
Prescott, AZ $145,343,000 4.1%
Salinas, CA $617,680,000 4.1%
Atlantic City-Hammonton, NJ $352,240,000 4.1%
Roanoke, VA $407,642,000 4.1%
Missoula, MT $137,597,000 4.1%
Florence-Muscle Shoals, AL $121,223,000 4.0%
Grand Junction, CO $146,535,000 4.0%
Huntington-Ashland, WV-KY-OH $323,500,000 4.0%
Jacksonville, FL $1,733,595,000 3.9%
Columbia, SC $949,049,000 3.8%
Sumter, SC $98,678,000 3.8%
Richmond, VA $1,840,697,000 3.8%
Gettysburg, PA $79,542,000 3.8%
Jackson, MS $662,469,000 3.7%
Waco, TX $254,236,000 3.6%
Dover, DE $156,972,000 3.6%
McAllen-Edinburg-Mission, TX $489,927,000 3.6%
York-Hanover, PA $414,477,000 3.6%
Kansas City, MO-KS $2,794,667,000 3.5%
Wichita Falls, TX $146,638,000 3.5%
Fresno, CA $849,168,000 3.4%
Hilton Head Island-Bluffton-Beaufort, SC $170,451,000 3.4%
Goldsboro, NC $93,174,000 3.4%
Terre Haute, IN $128,637,000 3.3%
Medford, OR $173,847,000 3.3%
Memphis, TN-MS-AR $1,433,488,000 3.3%
St. Cloud, MN $209,416,000 3.3%
Oxnard-Thousand Oaks-Ventura, CA $896,533,000 3.3%
Spokane-Spokane Valley, WA $484,407,000 3.2%
Johnstown, PA $98,609,000 3.2%
Shreveport-Bossier City, LA $453,881,000 3.2%
Vallejo-Fairfield, CA $363,740,000 3.2%
Asheville, NC $351,324,000 3.2%
Billings, MT $186,267,000 3.2%
Yuba City, CA $117,418,000 3.2%
Redding, CA $132,167,000 3.2%
Boise City, ID $614,307,000 3.2%
Durham-Chapel Hill, NC $772,778,000 3.1%
Harrisburg-Carlisle, PA $750,205,000 3.1%
Ann Arbor, MI $459,311,000 3.1%
Bellingham, WA $179,709,000 3.1%
Iowa City, IA $196,397,000 3.0%
Pocatello, ID $53,887,000 3.0%
Pueblo, CO $101,746,000 3.0%
St. Louis, MO-IL $2,891,639,000 2.9%
Utica-Rome, NY $218,596,000 2.9%
Charleston, WV $219,005,000 2.9%
Tuscaloosa, AL $177,359,000 2.9%
Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater, FL $2,461,103,000 2.9%
San Angelo, TX $96,850,000 2.9%
Springfield, MA $535,713,000 2.9%
Grand Forks, ND-MN $97,056,000 2.9%
Fort Collins, CO $286,736,000 2.9%
Manchester-Nashua, NH $480,765,000 2.9%
Lincoln, NE $311,916,000 2.8%
New Orleans-Metairie, LA $1,254,805,000 2.8%
Saginaw, MI $140,788,000 2.8%
Wenatchee, WA $86,393,000 2.8%
Cumberland, MD-WV $60,042,000 2.8%
Ames, IA $88,662,000 2.7%
Fargo, ND-MN $248,439,000 2.7%
Bangor, ME $109,388,000 2.7%
Cleveland-Elyria, OH $2,022,486,000 2.7%
Reno, NV $367,267,000 2.7%
Atlanta-Sandy Springs-Roswell, GA $5,431,722,000 2.7%
Bismarck, ND $139,152,000 2.7%
Buffalo-Cheektowaga-Niagara Falls, NY $982,744,000 2.7%
Scranton-Wilkes-Barre-Hazleton, PA $407,249,000 2.7%
Savannah, GA $293,072,000 2.7%
Denver-Aurora-Lakewood, CO $3,299,569,000 2.7%
Norwich-New London, CT $261,367,000 2.6%
Lexington-Fayette, KY $459,608,000 2.6%
Amarillo, TX $223,890,000 2.6%
Springfield, IL $179,842,000 2.6%
Carson City, NV $55,346,000 2.6%
Hanford-Corcoran, CA $91,666,000 2.6%
Salt Lake City, UT $1,252,805,000 2.6%
Omaha-Council Bluffs, NE-IA $945,389,000 2.6%
Providence-Warwick, RI-MA $1,314,112,000 2.6%
Altoona, PA $93,648,000 2.6%
Mobile, AL $284,348,000 2.6%
Knoxville, TN $646,444,000 2.5%
Birmingham-Hoover, AL $917,363,000 2.5%
Grand Island, NE $63,488,000 2.5%
Valdosta, GA $77,084,000 2.5%
Des Moines-West Des Moines, IA $605,269,000 2.4%
Hot Springs, AR $45,903,000 2.4%
Barnstable Town, MA $169,064,000 2.4%
Sioux Falls, SD $259,384,000 2.4%
Syracuse, NY $499,708,000 2.3%
Portland-Vancouver-Hillsboro, OR-WA $1,989,759,000 2.3%
Indianapolis-Carmel-Anderson, IN $1,748,165,000 2.3%
Philadelphia-Camden-Wilmington, PA-NJ-DE-MD $5,673,648,000 2.3%
Santa Fe, NM $92,910,000 2.2%
Riverside-San Bernardino-Ontario, CA $2,118,424,000 2.2%
Santa Maria-Santa Barbara, CA $368,018,000 2.2%
Idaho Falls, ID $89,000,000 2.2%
Detroit-Warren-Dearborn, MI $3,227,904,000 2.2%
New Haven-Milford, CT $637,320,000 2.2%
Wichita, KS $467,358,000 2.2%
Athens-Clarke County, GA $114,626,000 2.2%
Miami-Fort Lauderdale-West Palm Beach, FL $3,907,439,000 2.1%
Pittsburgh, PA $1,853,462,000 2.1%
Seattle-Tacoma-Bellevue, WA $3,723,187,000 2.1%
Las Vegas-Henderson-Paradise, NV $1,247,773,000 2.1%
Charlottesville, VA $170,958,000 2.1%
Cincinnati, OH-KY-IN $1,551,344,000 2.0%
Mansfield, OH $57,595,000 2.0%
Tallahassee, FL $210,087,000 2.0%
Enid, OK $40,290,000 2.0%
Fort Smith, AR-OK $127,042,000 2.0%
Louisville/Jefferson County, KY-IN $836,446,000 2.0%
Duluth, MN-WI $156,663,000 2.0%
Corvallis, OR $51,003,000 2.0%
Macon-Bibb County, GA $118,857,000 2.0%
Abilene, TX $93,137,000 2.0%
Orlando-Kissimmee-Sanford, FL $1,401,827,000 2.0%
Hattiesburg, MS $70,838,000 1.9%
Sacramento-Roseville-Arden-Arcade, CA $1,559,001,000 1.9%
Albany-Schenectady-Troy, NY $671,721,000 1.9%
Springfield, MO $228,523,000 1.9%
Columbus, OH $1,442,351,000 1.9%
Erie, PA $148,591,000 1.9%
Boulder, CO $283,083,000 1.9%
Madison, WI $513,537,000 1.9%
Springfield, OH $51,549,000 1.9%
Manhattan, KS $43,999,000 1.9%
Greensboro-High Point, NC $417,890,000 1.8%
Yakima, WA $114,280,000 1.8%
Nashville-Davidson-Murfreesboro-Franklin, TN $1,380,225,000 1.8%
Peoria, IL $227,447,000 1.8%
Coeur d'Alene, ID $57,157,000 1.8%
Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington, TX $5,183,682,000 1.8%
Stockton-Lodi, CA $292,066,000 1.8%
Champaign-Urbana, IL $139,212,000 1.8%
Beaumont-Port Arthur, TX $216,982,000 1.7%
Milwaukee-Waukesha-West Allis, WI $1,051,871,000 1.7%
Phoenix-Mesa-Scottsdale, AZ $2,291,398,000 1.7%
Kennewick-Richland, WA $146,591,000 1.7%
Bend-Redmond, OR $85,183,000 1.7%
Eugene, OR $154,586,000 1.7%
Grants Pass, OR $23,791,000 1.6%
St. George, UT $47,904,000 1.6%
Jefferson City, MO $75,153,000 1.6%
Sebring, FL $22,957,000 1.6%
Fayetteville-Springdale-Rogers, AR-MO $252,126,000 1.6%
St. Joseph, MO-KS $53,347,000 1.6%
Vineland-Bridgeton, NJ $65,511,000 1.6%
Wheeling, WV-OH $61,683,000 1.6%
Boston-Cambridge-Newton, MA-NH $4,159,927,000 1.6%
Cape Coral-Fort Myers, FL $254,695,000 1.6%
Chicago-Naperville-Elgin, IL-IN-WI $6,175,146,000 1.6%
Lake Havasu City-Kingman, AZ $41,464,000 1.6%
Fort Wayne, IN $205,425,000 1.6%
Casper, WY $63,808,000 1.5%
Cape Girardeau, MO-IL $40,354,000 1.5%
Lubbock, TX $130,359,000 1.5%
Kahului-Wailuku-Lahaina, HI $75,209,000 1.5%
San Francisco-Oakland-Hayward, CA $4,092,788,000 1.5%
Hammond, LA $34,438,000 1.5%
Wilmington, NC $105,391,000 1.5%
Minneapolis-St. Paul-Bloomington, MN-WI $2,204,416,000 1.4%
Sioux City, IA-NE-SD $83,787,000 1.4%
Gadsden, AL $27,242,000 1.4%
Austin-Round Rock, TX $1,122,756,000 1.4%
Ocean City, NJ $36,547,000 1.4%
Lansing-East Lansing, MI $185,076,000 1.4%
Greenville, NC $65,805,000 1.4%
Merced, CA $78,486,000 1.4%
Youngstown-Warren-Boardman, OH-PA $179,063,000 1.4%
Raleigh, NC $584,513,000 1.3%
New York-Newark-Jersey City, NY-NJ-PA $12,930,249,000 1.3%
Bowling Green, KY $54,797,000 1.3%
Lewiston, ID-WA $21,100,000 1.3%
Lawrence, KS $36,979,000 1.3%
Jackson, TN $49,810,000 1.3%
Trenton, NJ $269,630,000 1.3%
Deltona-Daytona Beach-Ormond Beach, FL $132,475,000 1.3%
Rochester, NY $456,620,000 1.3%
Evansville, IN-KY $122,331,000 1.3%
Florence, SC $63,605,000 1.2%
Los Angeles-Long Beach-Anaheim, CA $6,760,572,000 1.2%
Flint, MI $106,362,000 1.2%
College Station-Bryan, TX $81,010,000 1.2%
Salem, OR $125,644,000 1.2%
Olympia-Tumwater, WA $93,232,000 1.2%
Myrtle Beach-Conway-North Myrtle Beach, SC-NC $96,369,000 1.2%
Punta Gorda, FL $30,930,000 1.2%
Ocala, FL $63,647,000 1.2%
Decatur, AL $37,762,000 1.2%
Rochester, MN $98,728,000 1.2%
Charlotte-Concord-Gastonia, NC-SC $1,040,654,000 1.2%
Port St. Lucie, FL $98,097,000 1.2%
Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX $3,489,647,000 1.2%
Kingsport-Bristol-Bristol, TN-VA $86,339,000 1.2%
Winston-Salem, NC $199,780,000 1.2%
Albany, OR $30,355,000 1.2%
Sherman-Denison, TX $31,489,000 1.2%
Worcester, MA-CT $322,809,000 1.1%
Cedar Rapids, IA $109,311,000 1.1%
Hartford-West Hartford-East Hartford, CT $646,818,000 1.1%
Monroe, LA $48,397,000 1.1%
Jonesboro, AR $33,674,000 1.1%
Homosassa Springs, FL $19,789,000 1.1%
Bay City, MI $23,189,000 1.1%
Dothan, AL $34,717,000 1.1%
Tulsa, OK $462,532,000 1.1%
North Port-Sarasota-Bradenton, FL $188,508,000 1.1%
Green Bay, WI $121,294,000 1.1%
Mount Vernon-Anacortes, WA $35,175,000 1.0%
Blacksburg-Christiansburg-Radford, VA $44,462,000 1.0%
Toledo, OH $205,484,000 1.0%
South Bend-Mishawaka, IN-MI $92,066,000 1.0%
Greenville-Anderson-Mauldin, SC $255,962,000 1.0%
Kingston, NY $42,580,000 1.0%
Baton Rouge, LA $284,275,000 1.0%
Cleveland, TN $28,108,000 1.0%
Logan, UT-ID $31,105,000 1.0%
Muncie, IN $25,989,000 1.0%
Waterloo-Cedar Falls, IA $54,238,000 1.0%
La Crosse-Onalaska, WI-MN $46,757,000 1.0%
Morristown, TN $25,302,000 1.0%
Rocky Mount, NC $32,842,000 1.0%
Sebastian-Vero Beach, FL $32,062,000 1.0%
Binghamton, NY $62,923,000 1.0%
Lima, OH $30,128,000 1.0%
Williamsport, PA $32,773,000 1.0%
Chico, CA $49,899,000 1.0%
Grand Rapids-Wyoming, MI $333,359,000 1.0%
Salisbury, MD-DE $92,890,000 0.9%
Weirton-Steubenville, WV-OH $21,187,000 0.9%
Rockford, IL $86,676,000 0.9%
Akron, OH $205,263,000 0.9%
Eau Claire, WI $47,773,000 0.9%
Canton-Massillon, OH $90,999,000 0.9%
Auburn-Opelika, AL $26,888,000 0.9%
Visalia-Porterville, CA $90,603,000 0.9%
Lafayette, LA $135,882,000 0.9%
Gainesville, GA $45,167,000 0.9%
Pittsfield, MA $34,597,000 0.9%
San Jose-Sunnyvale-Santa Clara, CA $1,311,294,000 0.9%
Harrisonburg, VA $32,443,000 0.9%
Muskegon, MI $30,788,000 0.8%
Lynchburg, VA $49,835,000 0.8%
Owensboro, KY $26,263,000 0.8%
Allentown-Bethlehem-Easton, PA-NJ $215,826,000 0.8%
Kalamazoo-Portage, MI $77,657,000 0.8%
Santa Rosa, CA $138,333,000 0.8%
Lafayette-West Lafayette, IN $48,392,000 0.8%
Elmira, NY $19,619,000 0.8%
Rome, GA $19,356,000 0.8%
Daphne-Fairhope-Foley, AL $29,126,000 0.8%
Jackson, MI $29,213,000 0.8%
Kankakee, IL $20,195,000 0.8%
Wausau, WI $36,263,000 0.8%
Joplin, MO $35,806,000 0.8%
Lewiston-Auburn, ME $21,835,000 0.8%
Lakeland-Winter Haven, FL $97,277,000 0.8%
Appleton, WI $59,904,000 0.8%
Lake Charles, LA $55,280,000 0.8%
Tyler, TX $65,941,000 0.8%
Decatur, IL $28,366,000 0.8%
State College, PA $44,499,000 0.8%
Staunton-Waynesboro, VA $21,606,000 0.8%
Mankato-North Mankato, MN $25,308,000 0.8%
Longview, WA $19,899,000 0.7%
Glens Falls, NY $25,251,000 0.7%
Madera, CA $26,899,000 0.7%
Reading, PA $89,826,000 0.7%
Bloomington, IN $30,169,000 0.7%
Greeley, CO $55,266,000 0.7%
Kokomo, IN $17,488,000 0.7%
Monroe, MI $19,202,000 0.7%
Niles-Benton Harbor, MI $28,127,000 0.7%
Hickory-Lenoir-Morganton, NC $56,720,000 0.7%
Santa Cruz-Watsonville, CA $57,976,000 0.7%
Lancaster, PA $112,875,000 0.7%
Naples-Immokalee-Marco Island, FL $64,400,000 0.7%
Ithaca, NY $24,242,000 0.7%
Longview, TX $43,989,000 0.7%
Victoria, TX $19,239,000 0.6%
Dubuque, IA $21,067,000 0.6%
Janesville-Beloit, WI $25,246,000 0.6%
Michigan City-La Porte, IN $14,668,000 0.6%
Racine, WI $30,302,000 0.6%
Provo-Orem, UT $82,889,000 0.6%
Modesto, CA $77,973,000 0.6%
Oshkosh-Neenah, WI $36,729,000 0.6%
Bloomington, IL $40,357,000 0.6%
Spartanburg, SC $50,797,000 0.6%
Burlington, NC $18,726,000 0.6%
Dalton, GA $21,148,000 0.5%
Bloomsburg-Berwick, PA $15,365,000 0.5%
San Luis Obispo-Paso Robles-Arroyo Grande, CA $46,836,000 0.5%
Fond du Lac, WI $15,790,000 0.5%
Houma-Thibodaux, LA $36,139,000 0.5%
Midland, MI $11,886,000 0.5%
Bridgeport-Stamford-Norwalk, CT $289,912,000 0.5%
Columbus, IN $15,504,000 0.4%
Sheboygan, WI $15,876,000 0.4%
Midland, TX $60,500,000 0.4%
Napa, CA $20,566,000 0.3%
Elkhart-Goshen, IN $23,736,000 0.3%
Odessa, TX $17,399,000 0.3%

Estimates are reported in current dollars and do not include active-duty military earnings or contractors.
SOURCE:
Governing calculations of BEA data In Mulvaney's memo, agency heads are directed to consider reducing or eliminating duplicative, inefficient and nonessential programs as well as activities “no longer necessary in today’s society" and those that other public or private entities could “more appropriately fulfill part or all of the role.” 

Of course, this isn’t the first time a new administration has sought to reform federal agencies. The last major cuts to the federal workforce came during the Clinton administration’s “reinventing government” initiative. More than 400,000 federal jobs were axed.

One key difference in this administration’s approach is a greater emphasis on trimming the size of the federal workforce rather than merely implementing broad spending cuts by any means necessary.

“It seems like the one specific thing that they definitely know they want to do,” says Chris Edwards, an economist who tracks the issue at the libertarian Cato Institute.

The breadth and size of the cuts, particularly around the elimination of entire programs, also exceed that of prior administrations.

“Bush and Obama had long lists of line items to eliminate, but they were pretty tiny things,” Edwards says. “There isn’t any smoke or mirrors now. These are real terminations and cuts they want to achieve.”

In most states, federal civilian employees alone don’t make up a sizable segment of the labor force. They account for the largest shares of total employment in Alaska, Hawaii, Maryland and Virginia.

Federal Civilian (Excluding Postal Workers) Share of Total Employment

  Less than 1%   1-2%   2-3%   Greater than 3%

  SOURCE: Governing calculations of OPM data (excluding these agencies), BLS nonfarm job estimates for December 2016   In reality, the federal government's role in the labor market is much larger. That’s because so much of the work is outsourced to private firms. Paul Light, a New York University professor, previously estimated federal contracts and grants yielded approximately 8 million jobs in 2002, far more than the number of federal employees.

Interestingly, the OMB memo makes little mention of reducing contracting costs, other than advising agencies to avoid redundant contracts and consider government-wide agreements. While private contractors are often based near federal employment centers, it’s hard to know precisely where they’re located because the federal government doesn’t publish such state- or local-level employment data.

Edwards suggests the rhetoric around cost savings doesn’t necessarily align with actual employment counts for some agencies. Many, like the EPA, employ relatively few workers, so cutting them would generate little cost savings. 

A clearer picture of how cuts could potentially be applied should emerge later this year after agency heads submit their reform plans to the OMB.