Josh Goodman is a former staff writer for GOVERNING..E-mail: firstname.lastname@example.org
Here are some potential upsets. And I'm not talking mild surprises, I'm talking UPSETS.
Florida Governor: Republican Charlie Crist has led the whole election, but some polls show the race getting closer. Could his snub of President Bush yesterday backfire?
Michigan Governor: Democratic incumbent Jennifer Granholm has consistently polled above 50% lately, but early voting has looked favorable for Republicans. Something tells me Dick DeVos, her GOP opponent, spent lavishly on get out the vote efforts. That something is the fact that DeVos spends lavishly on everything.
Texas Governor: What if none of Kinky Friedman's supporters show up? Democrat Chris Bell only needs about 38% of the vote, the same percentage that John Kerry received, to have a chance.
Missouri stem cell amendment: Most folks have been assuming this measure would pass, but ballot measures that garner a ton of attention have a way of failing. If people aren't sure, they tend to vote no.
Gay marriage amendments: The only reason this would be an upset is that every ban on gay marriage ever on the ballot in the U.S. (20 or so) has passed. This year, though, five votes look close, in Arizona, Virginia, South Dakota, Wisconsin and Colorado. I can't point to any of those states where the ban is particularly likely to fail, but, since there are five possibilities, the ban failing in one would only be a moderate surprise.
Loyal 13th Floor readers might recall that all of my upset possibilities failed to come to fruition last year, but the one upset I explicitly said wouldn't happen, Kwame Kilpatrick winning reelection in Detroit, did come to pass. We'll see if I can continue my record of 100% inaccuracy.
Written and compiled by staff writers and editors, GOVERNING View is an on-the-ground, and sometimes behind-the-scenes, look at the topics we're covering in print and online. From notes on what's up in statehouses, county courthouses and city halls, to encounters with people, places and things, GOVERNING View is a window into the side of state and local government you don't always see.