Zach Patton is a GOVERNING staff writer. He writes about a range of topics, including education, social policy issues, and urban planning and design. Patton is also the editor of GOVERNING's Management e-newsletter.
E-mail: zpatton@governing.comMark Zandi: State Fiscal Outlook is "Dark"
Comments
Commented February 9, 2010
Before buying in, I'd suggest you consider the source of the prognostication. Zandi was practically...
Mark your calendars, everybody: Feb. 11, 2011. That's the day Moody's.com economist Mark Zandi says the economy will shift from financial recovery to a "self-sustaining expansion."
Zandi, who keynoted Governing's Outlook 2010 conference today, has a good track record with these things. When he spoke at last year's Outlook conference, he accurately predicted -- to the day! -- when the recession would end and economic recovery would begin (Sept. 15, 2009, for those of you keeping score.)
But while the economy may be in a period of recovery, and while it may be expanding a year from now, states and localities are (as my father used to say) still in for a world o' hurt. "The recession is over, but the recovery will be a bit of slog," Zandi said, calling the situation for state governments "dark."
Zandi praised the role that the government played in mitigating and ending the recession. "The end of the recession, in my view, is largely due to the policy response," he said. One of the most important policy elements, Zandi said, were the bank stress-tests conducted last spring. "That was a successful effort at reestablishing confidence. They were more than symbolic; they were substantive."
The other major policy element, of course, was the federal stimulus. "I don't think it's any accident that the recession ended at the same time the stimulus was delivering its maximum impact" in the states, he said. States and localities have certainly had a tough fiscal year, Zandi said, "but it would have been a complete mess without that stimulus money."
Whenever the economy does being expanding again -- be it 2/11/2011 or not -- states and municipalities still will have a long way to go before they're back in the black. Lagging unemployment and property taxes will continue to put pressure on public-sector revenues long after that. And once the financial house is somewhat in order, governments will have to turn their attentions to the persistent structural deficits they face.
Still, in a conference that's been full of doom and gloom, the mere idea of a date for the inkling of the beginning of a turnaround counts as good news.
View
Written and compiled by staff writers and editors, GOVERNING View is an on-the-ground, and sometimes behind-the-scenes, look at the topics we're covering in print and online. From notes on what's up in statehouses, county courthouses and city halls, to encounters with people, places and things, GOVERNING View is a window into the side of state and local government you don't always see.
- Most Viewed
- Comments
-
- Lose Weight the Hrbacek Way!
"Considering the last congress member from Sugarland, this is meek and mild.
" - Readings: The State of Metropolitan America
"Great information!!!!" - How To Motivate Employees
"Extraordinary presentation, every people manager must watch..." - Illegals in Jersey with Plates from PA
"The real problem is not having a true, national ID card issued by the feds, essentially a pocket-siz" - Immigration and the 2011 MLB All-Star Game
"The cost of illegal immigration to the State of Arizona is far more than $60 million, so who cares a"
- Lose Weight the Hrbacek Way!
Network News
- NASCIO Releases State-by-State Report on Health IT Projects
- Web Search Is the New King of Government Portals
- Hydraulics on Hybrid Recycling Trucks to Reduce Costs, Emissions in Ann Arbor, Mich.
- State CIOs Want Better IT Governance and Strengthened Organizations, Survey Finds
- Texas Officials Await IBM Response to Data Center Contract Warning
- Managing Ever-Rising Wireless Expenses Is Critical for Government CIOs (Opinion)
- NewsWatch: Public Safety -- Police Ordered to Ignore Subpoenas, More ...
- Cities: We Need $75 Billion or We'll Lay off 500,000
- Making New York City More Efficient
Twitter
Facebook
LinkedIn
YouTube
Flickr
RSS
© 2010 e.Republic, Inc. All Rights reserved. |