Alan Greenblatt is a GOVERNING correspondent.E-mail: firstname.lastname@example.org
Michigan Liberal chews over the results of state legislative contests, noting that Democrats added to their House majority through big gains in the Detroit area, plus western Michigan and the Upper Peninsula. The post is replete with maps and tables.
There are thirty four seats open in 2010. While the GOP might talk bravely about how they are going to pick up 13 seats and return to the majority, the odds of achieving this are rather steep. Of the thirty four races, seven are safe Democratic seats, and seven are safe Republican according to the 2007 PVI. Of the remaining seats, the Democrats hold twelve, while the GOP currently holds nine.
To make a chamber flip possible, the Republican Party would need to pick up a majority of these Democratic seats, hold five swing seats, and knock off a few incumbents. This would be a big task to accomplish.
Thirdly, from all indications, 2010 is going to be a year where both parties will focus on the gubernatorial race and the State Senate. I'll be posting on the state senate early next year, but at this point it will be very possible that the Senate could be ground zero for Republican efforts to hold onto political control to reduce the impact of statewide redistricting.
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