What Happens Now?
I'm probably going to be eating some humble pie pretty soon. A month ago, I predicted in this space that the Democratic nominee would be ...
I'm probably going to be eating some humble pie pretty soon. A month ago, I predicted in this space that the Democratic nominee would be decided by April. After victories in the Texas and Ohio primaries last night, it isn't likely that Senator Clinton will be dropping out any time soon. And with a lead in the pledged delegates--as well as a victory of his own in Texas via the caucus--it doesn't look like Senator Obama will drop out before Pennsylvania votes. So...what's next?
Does Pennsylvania become a de facto winner-take-all contest for the Democratic nomination? Might votes in little ol' Montana and South Dakota really matter on June 3rd? Will a battle regarding the unseated Florida and Michigan delegates cause a war within the Democratic party? Will the superdelegates settle it--and if so, will it be the worst imaginable nightmare for the party?
I'm still guessing that the internal party pressure on the two candidates to resolve the situation without the superdelegates will be enormous, and likely enough to get one them to give up on the claim to the crown before the convention. But perhaps ominously for those who would like an easy resolution of Clinton v. Obama, Intrade has just opened a political market for "Will Florida or Michigan hold new primaries?"
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