WA-GOV: Polling Disconnect
We have a couple of new polls in the Washington gubernatorial race. Elway, a Washington-based pollster, gives Democratic Gov. Christine Gregoire a 16-point lead over ...
We have a couple of new polls in the Washington gubernatorial race. Elway, a Washington-based pollster, gives Democratic Gov. Christine Gregoire a 16-point lead over Republican challenger Dino Rossi. Strategic Vision only gives her a two-point lead.
This is the way the polls have looked for months now. Gregoire is almost always ahead, but her lead sometimes looks mighty and other times looks miniscule.
At Swing State Project, Crisitunity makes a good point. Two pollsters, Elway and Rasmussen, have fairly consistently been giving Gregoire a significant lead. But two others, SurveyUSA and Strategic Vision, have reported that the race is very close.
Luckily, we won't have to wait until November to get a little more clarity. The primary in Washington is August 19. It's always fun to compare how many votes leading candidates win in their respective primaries, but, because of Washington's new top-two primary system, that comparison will be especially telling in this case.
Gregoire and Rossi will actually be squaring off against each other, and against the minor gubernatorial candidates, on the ballot (with the top two, presumably Gregoire and Rossi, advancing to the general election). This will be, in effect, a trial run of the fall Gregoire-Rossi showdown.
Of course, as with any primary, the turnout dynamics will be different from the general election. However, since this is Washington, a strong turnout is expected. The Secretary of State predicts that 46% of eligible voters will cast ballots in the primary.
So, even if the primary won't be definitively tell us who is ahead and by how much, it will be at least a tad elucidating. When polls conflict, what better way to break the tie than at the polls?
Join the Discussion
After you comment, click Post. You can enter an anonymous Display Name or connect to a social profile.
The Week in Public Finance: Taxes, Drought and a Nod to the Baha Men1 day ago
How Data Can Improve Transit Efficiency1 day ago
Fresno Deputy Police Chief Arrested on Drug Charges1 day ago
States Trying to Figure Out Whether Entertainment Tax Credits Really Work1 day ago
Chris Christie Rails Against Estate Taxes New Jersey Needs1 day ago
Public Defender: San Francisco Jail Guards Forced Inmates to Fight Each Other2 days ago