VA-Gov: McAuliffe Leads?

SurveyUSA has an interesting new poll on next week's Democratic primary for governor of Virginia, but one that confuses as much as it clarifies: ...
by | June 4, 2009

McAuliffe SurveyUSA has an interesting new poll on next week's Democratic primary for governor of Virginia, but one that confuses as much as it clarifies:

Overall, former Democratic National Committee chair Terry McAuliffe remains on top today with 35%, state senator Creigh Deeds has 29%, former state delegate Brian Moran 26%.

Those top-line numbers reflect the movement toward Deeds that we've seen in other polls, but, nonetheless, McAuliffe must be pleased to have a lead -- who wouldn't be pleased with a lead less than a week before the election?

However, McAuliffe's silver cloud has an ominous lining. SurveyUSA adds:

But, enough is happening below the surface to add considerable drama to Tuesday's outcome. Half of SurveyUSA likely voters say they may yet change their mind.  Among voters who say their mind is made-up, Deeds leads, with McAuliffe and Moran a half-dozen points back.

Those results aren't too surprising. McAuliffe has conducted the most robust campaign, thanks to his fundraising advantage. As a result, he's picked up the tentative support of a lot potential voters who have simply heard more from him than they have from Deeds or Moran.

Do those tentative McAuliffe supporters stick with him on Tuesday? Do they show up at all? If McAuliffe is to be the Democratic nominee, it will be because those questions were answered in the affirmative.

Josh Goodman
Josh Goodman  |  Former Staff Writer
mailbox@governing.com  | 

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