Predicting by Analogy

This type of analysis seems to me increasingly irrelevant. If it's true that Obama is cutting into Clinton's constituencies, comparisons between states that haven't yet ...
by | February 21, 2008

Nc_3 This type of analysis seems to me increasingly irrelevant. If it's true that Obama is cutting into Clinton's constituencies, comparisons between states that haven't yet voted with those that have are bound to prove false.

But since I'm a sucker for this sort of thing anyway, I thought I'd note that Under the Dome asks, is North Carolina more like Virginia or Tennessee?

All three states are part of the so-called "Rim South" -- Southern states that aren't part of the Deep South but aren't Northern either.

UNC-Charlotte politics professor Ted Arrington said that Obama could see similarities with Virginia, which he won handily: A large military presence, a mid-sized black population, strong urban centers such as Richmond and Charlotte.

On the other hand, Hillary Clinton could see parallels to Tennessee, which she won: A strong agricultural area, similar capital cities, a mid-sized black population and clusters of retirees in the mountains.

Arrington said that Obama will likely win in three Congressional districts with larger black populations represented by Reps. Mel Watt, G.K. Butterfield and Mike McIntyre.

"If they split the vote statewide, the other 10 districts would very likely go to Clinton," he said.

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