Palin's Speech: What the Markets Say
Two days ago, Intrade opened a market on Sarah Palin being withdrawn as McCain's VP choice. The graph below charts the likelihood (chart is in ...
Two days ago, Intrade opened a market on Sarah Palin being withdrawn as McCain's VP choice. The graph below charts the likelihood (chart is in Pacific time):
Note the "bubble" at 14 in the hours just before the convention coverage kicked off in earnest. The markets are now hovering around 8. Bottom line: people think she is more likely to stay on for the long haul following her performance last night.
It bears mentioning that most Intrade markets seem to take into account an "interest opportunity cost," meaning that even certainties may not price out at 0 or 100 until the decisive moment. So Joe Biden's withdrawal as VP is priced at 2, though there have been no sales on the contract and I haven't heard that possibility discussed by anyone.
We invite you to discuss and comment on this article using social media.
CBO: Senate Bill Would Nearly Double the Uninsured Compared to Obamacare1 hour ago
U.S. Supreme Court Weakens Wall Between Church and State1 hour ago
States Must List Same-Sex Parents on Birth Certificates, Rules Supreme Court1 hour ago
Mayors Lobby Against Congressional Gun Bills2 hours ago
Gun Advocates Lose U.S. Supreme Court Case2 hours ago
Minimum Wage Study Casts Doubt on Its Benefits, as Some Cast Doubt on the Study2 hours ago