Palin's Speech: What the Markets Say
Two days ago, Intrade opened a market on Sarah Palin being withdrawn as McCain's VP choice. The graph below charts the likelihood (chart is in ...
Two days ago, Intrade opened a market on Sarah Palin being withdrawn as McCain's VP choice. The graph below charts the likelihood (chart is in Pacific time):
Note the "bubble" at 14 in the hours just before the convention coverage kicked off in earnest. The markets are now hovering around 8. Bottom line: people think she is more likely to stay on for the long haul following her performance last night.
It bears mentioning that most Intrade markets seem to take into account an "interest opportunity cost," meaning that even certainties may not price out at 0 or 100 until the decisive moment. So Joe Biden's withdrawal as VP is priced at 2, though there have been no sales on the contract and I haven't heard that possibility discussed by anyone.
Join the Discussion
After you comment, click Post. You can enter an anonymous Display Name or connect to a social profile.
Rise in Early Cervical Cancer Detection Linked to Obamacare2 days ago
Video Just the Latest Stain on Chicago Police's Decades-Long Record of Misconduct2 days ago
On Immigration, Feds and Texas Play Chess3 days ago
Pension Cuts Win Federal Court Support in Chattanooga3 days ago
Amid Financial Turmoil, Florida City Fires Its New Manager3 days ago
Maryland Changes How Lawsuit Payouts Are Sold3 days ago