Palin's Speech: What the Markets Say
Two days ago, Intrade opened a market on Sarah Palin being withdrawn as McCain's VP choice. The graph below charts the likelihood (chart is in ...
Two days ago, Intrade opened a market on Sarah Palin being withdrawn as McCain's VP choice. The graph below charts the likelihood (chart is in Pacific time):
Note the "bubble" at 14 in the hours just before the convention coverage kicked off in earnest. The markets are now hovering around 8. Bottom line: people think she is more likely to stay on for the long haul following her performance last night.
It bears mentioning that most Intrade markets seem to take into account an "interest opportunity cost," meaning that even certainties may not price out at 0 or 100 until the decisive moment. So Joe Biden's withdrawal as VP is priced at 2, though there have been no sales on the contract and I haven't heard that possibility discussed by anyone.
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