Josh Goodman is a former staff writer for GOVERNING..E-mail: email@example.com
Nassau County Executive Tom Suozzi, a prominent New York Democrat, ended election night clinging to a narrow lead, but the situation has gotten worse for him ever since. Newsday has the good news for Edward Mangano, the Republican candidate:
When the final machine count was completed last week, two-term incumbent Democrat Thomas Suozzi was 459 votes behind Republican challenger Edward Mangano in the race for county executive, and two-term incumbent Democrat Howard Weitzman was 948 votes behind Republican challenger George Maragos in the race for comptroller.
When the board finished yesterday's count shortly after 7 p.m., Suozzi was behind by 554 votes, and Weitzman trailed by 1,019, according to a Board of Elections printout. Workers counted 536 of the more than 8,000 ballots yesterday and were scheduled to resume this morning.
These numbers look pretty bleak for Suozzi. Let's say that there are 7,500 ballots left to be counted that either went to Suozzi or Mangano. That seem like a pretty reasonable estimate (depending of what " more than 8,000 ballots" means) because a few ballots will go to the third-party candidate in the race.
If Suozzi won 4,028 of those 7,500 ballots and Mangano won 3,472, the incumbent would prevail by 2 votes. In other words, Suozzi needs just over 53.7% of the vote from voters who either went for him or Mangano, while Mangano needs only 46.7%.
Mangano did better than that in the election day voting and so far in the absentee voting he's doing better still. While 53.7% doesn't sound like that much, Suozzi's reelection depends on a clear -- and unlikely -- reversal in the trend.
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