NY-Governor: Is Giuliani In or Out?

Is Rudy Giuliani running for governor of New York? Probably, suggests the New York Times: ALBANY -- Nineteen months after ending his disastrous run for ...
by | August 27, 2009

Is Rudy Giuliani running for governor of New York? Probably, suggests the New York Times:

ALBANY -- Nineteen months after ending his disastrous run for the presidency, Rudolph W. Giuliani is clearing a path for a possible race for governor in 2010, believing public anger at an ineffectual Albany and unease over the economy could create ideal conditions for a Republican to reclaim the governor's mansion.

Mr. Giuliani has told associates that he will decide on a candidacy within 30 to 60 days, as he weighs whether he can be elected statewide and what impact another campaign would have on his business interests.

...

Mr. Giuliani's efforts to sound out party leaders about a candidacy have also intensified. He has crisscrossed the state meeting with local officials; after a motivational speech to a paying audience in Buffalo last Tuesday, he met with local Republican leaders in a private meeting room to talk about the race. In recent weeks, he has also discussed his possible candidacy with Mayor Michael R. Bloomberg and met in Washington with Representative Peter T. King, a Republican who has considered running himself but said he would not if Mr. Giuliani became a candidate.

Probably not, suggests Politico:

Close associates of Rudy Giuliani are casting doubt on growing speculation that the former New York mayor is planning to run for governor.

Within his inner circle, there is still considerable debate as to whether the job represents a good fit for the former GOP presidential candidate or even whether Giuliani is serious about seeking the seat currently held by embattled Democrat David Paterson.

...

"I think there is, at best, a 20 percent chance that he runs," said one Giuliani insider. "He just wants to get on with his life. He wants to be relevant; he wants to have a say. But he doesn't want to run for governor."

I'm skeptical that Giuliani will run because I suspect he will realize that he's not likely to win. David Paterson is vulnerable, but he's so vulnerable that he's likely to lose to Andrew Cuomo in a Democratic primary. Cuomo probably would have the advantage on Giuliani.

The Politico article, though, mentions another reason Giuliani might not run: Even if he won, he'd face the same daunting obstacles as any other New York governor. Those obstacles include an Albany culture that seems impervious to reform and, for Giuliani, a State Assembly that is dominated by Democrats.

Giuliani has experience governing in a very Democratic city. But, the Eliot Spitzer saga proved that even when a governor is elected with a mandate, the New York state legislature is almost impossible to tame.

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