Josh Goodman is a former staff writer for GOVERNING..
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NJ-GOV: Does Corzine Have a Chance?
New Jersey Gov. Jon Corzine's reelection campaign is just getting started, but Stuart Rothenberg suggests that his challenger, Republican Chris Christie, is nearly certain to win: The raid last week in New Jersey that resulted in the arrest of 44
people, including a number of officeholders, probably is the straw that
breaks Democratic Gov. Jon Corzine's back in November. When I asked one
longtime Democratic insider about the race, it took him all of two
words to assess Corzine's prospects: "It's over." Another Garden State
Democrat was more cautious, saying only, "It's almost over."
All eyes will now be on the governor, to see whether he follows the lead of former Sen. Robert Torricelli (D-N.J.), who dropped his Senate candidacy late in 2002 when he and party insiders came to believe that he could very well lose his seat to the Republican challenger. Party leaders then picked former Sen. Frank Lautenberg (D) to replace him on the ballot, and Lautenberg went on to win in the fall.
All eyes will now be on the governor, to see whether he follows the lead of former Sen. Robert Torricelli (D-N.J.), who dropped his Senate candidacy late in 2002 when he and party insiders came to believe that he could very well lose his seat to the Republican challenger. Party leaders then picked former Sen. Frank Lautenberg (D) to replace him on the ballot, and Lautenberg went on to win in the fall.
I'd really be surprised if Corzine pulled a Torricelli -- later in the column, Rothenberg says insiders put the odds of it happening at 1 in 5. Still, the fact that people are talking about it doesn't speak well of Corzine's chances for victory.
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