Alan Greenblatt is a GOVERNING correspondent.
E-mail: mailbox@governing.comTwitter: @governing
Hard to Call
I talked this morning with Clay Richards, assistant director of the Quinnipiac University Polling Institute, about the New Jersey Republican gubernatorial primary coming up next month. Former U.S. Attorney Chris Christie has the lead but former Bogota Mayor Steve Lonegan has the support of more ardent conservatives, which has everyone in the state wondering whose folks will show up.
Richards said this is a particularly tough question for pollsters.
"The Republican primary in any state, and in New Jersey in particular, is probably the most difficult poll that a pollster has to deal with," he said, "due to low turnout and who's going to turn out in a primary."
I asked him why GOP primaries are more challenging than Democratic ones. "The Democratic profile is more monolithic and they tend to look for the same thing," he said. "There's not the same dichotomy between moderates and conservatives.
"In the [Northeastern] states where we poll, Democrats are the dominant party and primary turnout is better."
GOVERNING Politics is the place for news and analysis on campaigns and elections. If there's a ballot measure in California, a legislative election in Alabama, a mayoral election in Anchorage or a governor's race in Rhode Island, GOVERNING Politics probably is writing about it. We love everything about state and local politics, from polls and campaign ads to policy debates and demographic trends.
Latest From Politics
- Eric Garcetti Faces Major Challenges as Next Mayor of Los Angeles
- How Weak is the Republican Party in the Most Democratic States?
- Looking Back at Howard Dean's 50-State Strategy
- Are States Deepening the Nation's Red-Blue Divide?
- How Successful Are Lieutenant Governors Seeking the Governorship?
Categories
- Ballot Measures
- Economic & Fiscal Issues
- Election Results
- Governors
- Legislatures
- Local Offices
- Mayors
- Media and Advertising
- National Politics
- Parties & Interest Groups
- Political Map
- Polls
- Redistricting & Reapportionment
- Social Issues
- State Offices
- Voting Process & Voting Rules
Twitter
Facebook
LinkedIn
YouTube
Flickr
RSS
© 2011 e.Republic, Inc. All Rights reserved. |