Alan Greenblatt is a GOVERNING correspondent.
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Could Chris Daggett Win?
The latest poll in the New Jersey governor's race, this one from Eagleton-Rutgers, shows Jon Corzine, the Democratic incumbent, opening up a three-point lead over long-time race leader Chris Christie, the Republican former U.S. attorney.
Fans of polls of this race will note that Corzine remains, as ever, at 39 percent. But Christie's numbers are plummeting rapidly. In short, Corzine remains largely unpopular, and the more voters get to know Christie -- or hear Corzine's characterizations of him -- the less they like him.
By contrast, support continues to grow for independent Chris Daggett, who stands at 20 percent in this poll. And the more voters who know him, the more his numbers increase.
Daggett is still a ways from even making this a three-way race. But he's certainly getting closer and he's the only candidate with upwards momentum. As this race's dynamics shift from being about Corzine's unpopularity to being about distaste for both Corzine and Christie, that certainly opens the door for a major surprise.
GOVERNING Politics is the place for news and analysis on campaigns and elections. If there's a ballot measure in California, a legislative election in Alabama, a mayoral election in Anchorage or a governor's race in Rhode Island, GOVERNING Politics probably is writing about it. We love everything about state and local politics, from polls and campaign ads to policy debates and demographic trends.
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